bake - February 2013 - 20

ingredients

Wheat: Supplies Up, Quality Down
Projected supplies of hard red winter wheat (HRW), hard red

Southern Plains, the percentage of seedings rated poor to very

spring wheat (HRS) and durum are up year to year, mostly

poor are: Nebraska, 46; Oklahoma, 44; Texas, 40; and Kansas,

because of higher production, according to a December report

25. South Dakota is even worse, with 64% of the crop rated

from USDA’s Economic Research Service. HRW production is

poor to very poor.

up 224 million bushels year to year, with higher planted area
and smaller abandonment rate.

SRW States that have the highest percentage of their seedings
rated good to excellent include: Indiana, 72; Michigan, 72; Ohio,

Yields are also higher year to year because of the recovery

70; Illinois, 69; North Carolina, 67; and Arkansas, 63. Conditions

from the severe drought on the Central and Southern Plains

in the Paciﬁc Northwest (PNW) are also much better than

the previous year.

the Plains. The percentage of PNW rated good to excellent is:
Idaho, 77; Washington, 67; and Oregon, 61.

HRS and durum production are up 107 million bushels and
32 million bushels, respectively, from a year ago with larger

Projected supplies of soft red winter wheat and white wheat

harvested areas and higher yields. Production for these two

are down from 2011/12. Both classes had lower production

classes of wheat recovered from the previous year when exces-

for 2012/13, down 38 million bushels and 55 million bushels,

sive moisture and cool temperatures in the Northern Plains

respectively, on the year. Production is down for both classes

resulted in late seeding and prevented plantings.

because of smaller harvested area and lower yields. SRW
planted area was down because a late row crop harvest

The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price

delayed plantings in the Corn Belt and Northeast.

in December was narrowed to $7.70 to $8.30 per bushel. With
this narrowing of the price range, the midpoint is lowered

All-wheat 2012 production is estimated at 2,269 million

10¢ per bushel, with larger expected carryout and weakening

bushels, up 270 million bushels from 2011. The all-wheat

export prospects. This compares with the record $7.24 per

harvested area is estimated at 49 million acres, up 3.3

bushel reported for 2011/12.

million acres from last year. The US all-wheat estimated
yield is 46.3 bushels per acre for 2012, equaling the record

Winter wheat conditions as of Nov. 25, 2012, were rated not

46.3 bushels for 2010. The yield is up 2.6 bushels from the

as favorable as last year at the same time. For all winter

previous year.

wheat seedings, 33% of the crop was rated good to excellent,
compared to 52% a year ago.

Total 2012/13 carry-in stocks were estimated at 743 million
bushels, down 119 million bushels from 2011/12. Carry-in stocks

This year’s crop conditions are quite variable by region of the

are down year to year for all classes except SRW. Projected

country. Conditions for HRW seedings are not as good as for

all-wheat imports for 2012/13, at 130 million bushels, are up

soft red winter wheat (SRW) seedings. For the Central and

18 million bushels from the previous year.

20 < FEB 2013 | bakemag.com
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bake - February 2013

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