Food Business News - July 5, 2011 - 61

Market commentary for one-week period ended July 1, 2011

Wheat Futures
The month-long tailspin in wheat futures prices continued last week. Prices on all three exchanges posted wide declines with Chicago leading the retreat. The only exception to the downtrend was the expiring Minneapolis July future. Losses were trimmed at the week’s end. Outside markets took a turn in the backseat as grain supply-and-demand fundamentals demanded attention. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on June 30 estimated all-wheat seeded area for harvest in the United States in 2011 at 56,433,000 acres, down 3% from the March Prospective Plantings report forecast but up 5% from 2010. Winter wheat area was estimated at 41,108,000 acres, down narrowly from March but up 10% from last year. The U.S.D.A. estimated area planted to spring wheat other than durum at 13,627,000 acres, down 6% from March intentions and down 71,000 acres from 13,698,000 acres last year. Because late plantings weren’t near completion during the survey for the acreage report, the U.S.D.A. said it would resurvey producers in Minnesota, the Dakotas and Montana and issue the results in August. The U.S.D.A. indicated producers planted 92,282,000 acres to corn, up 5% from 2010. The corn area was above

both the March forecast and the range of pre-report trade estimates. Corn futures plunged in response and pulled wheat lower in its wake. The U.S.D.A. estimated stocks of wheat in all positions in the United States on June 1, the beginning of the 2011-12 crop year, at 860,781,000 bus, down 114,856,000 bus, or 12%, from 975,637,000 bus in 2010. The 2011-12 wheat carry-in was above the average or pre-report trade estimates at 825 million bus and added pressure to wheat futures. The winter wheat harvest was 44% completed by June 26 compared with 37% as the recent ﬁve-year average for the date. Winter wheat rated good to excellent was 35% with 23% fair and 42% poor to very poor. Spring wheat planting in the six key states was 95% completed by June 26 compared with 100% as the recent ﬁve-year average. Sales of U.S. export wheat in the week ended June 23 totaled 545,100 tonnes, on the low side of trade estimates. FBN

Millfeed
Numerous factors tugged at millfeed markets last week with spot prices ending mixed but deferred values down sharply as the market turned bearish after midweek. Early-week prices strengthened in many markets as corn futures rose and

buyers covered nearby needs with the holiday weekend ahead. At the same time, flour sales into the first quarter of 2012 increased interest in forward millfeed contracts, although trading remained light. But bearish U.S.D.A. 2011 corn planting and June 1 corn stocks data sent corn futures plummeting on Thursday, pulling millfeed values sharply lower across all delivery periods in nearly all markets. Deferred prices ended the week down about $10 a ton with buyers either warily on the sidelines or bidding sharply lower. Unusual Friday trading occurred in some markets after Thursday’s declines, with most interest in periods. Nearby prices fared better with support from expectations of tighter supplies due to reduced ﬂour grind during the holiday weekend with some mills down Saturday through Monday. The exception was heavy weekend supplies in the Northeast. Wheat germ prices were unchanged. Millfeed was $138 a ton in Kansas City and $159 in Minneapolis on a rail basis compared with corn at $224 a ton and sorghum at $194 a ton, both K.C. Corn gluten feed was $5 lower at $180 a ton, distillers’ dried grain was down $15 at $190 a ton and dehydrated alfalfa was $225 a ton, all K.C. FBN

Wheat futures
$ per bu; change in cents per bu July 1 Kansas City July September December March Chicago July September December March Minneapolis July September December March 7.03 7.20¾ 7.47½ 7.62¾ 5.84½ 6.12¼ 6.60 7.01 8.31 8.04½ 8.04½ 8.15½ — Change from — Week’s June 24 June 17 High Low -45½c -101½c -46½c -101½c -45½c -98½c -44½c -97¼c -51¼c -48¾c -45½c -36¼c +5c -14c -19¼c -21¼c -87¾c -95¾c -93¼c -89¼c -66¼c -77¼c -80¼c -80c 7.60 7.79¾ 8.06½ 8.22 6.64¼ 6.98½ 7.39½ 7.74 8.82 8.60¼ 8.59¼ 8.68 6.77 5.95¼ 7.22 7.39¾ 5.65¼ 5.92 6.39 6.81¼ 8.04½ 7.85 7.83¾ 7.95 Year ago 5.07¼ 5.16 5.33 5.49¾ 4.87¾ 5.03 5.29 5.54 5.22¼ 5.31 5.47¼ 5.64¾ High 10.09¾ 10.20¾ 10.34 10.14¼ 9.50¾ 9.71½ 9.86¾ 9.54¾ 11.20 10.55¼ 10.55¼ 10.55¾ Season’s Low (02-09-11) (02-09-11) (02-09-11) (05-26-11) (02-09-11) (02-09-11) (02-09-11) (05-26-11) (06-07-11) (05-26-11) (05-26-11) (05-26-11) 5.27¼ 5.42 5.59½ 5.03 5.40 5.60½ 4.72¾ 5.05 5.53¼ 5.65 5.14 5.32¼ (06-11-10) (06-09-10) (06-11-10) (06-11-10) (06-11-10) (06-09-10) (06-08-10) (06-11-10) (06-11-10) (06-11-10) (06-10-10) (06-09-10)

Kansas City wheat futures
July contract, $ per bu
10.50 8.50 6.50 4.50 J O J Previous Year A Current Year

Week's changewheat futures Chicago (cents per bu) ..........……....... -30.5

July contract, $ per bu
$10.25 $8.75 $7.25 $5.75

Bulk middlings
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted Spot and December prices are nominal. Spot Kansas City 138 @ 143 Southwest, f.o.b. truck 160 @ 170 Minneapolis 159 @ 169 Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck 155 @ 165 Chicago West 172 @ 182 Central states, f.o.b truck 155 @ 165 Buffalo 120 @ 130 Southeast 135 @ 145 N. & S. California 171 @ 191 Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck 167 @ 187 Paciﬁc Northwest 155 @ 165 Upper Midwest, sacked 300 Wheat germ 260 @ 300 July 138@ 143 160@ 165 154@ 164 150@ 160 167@ 177 148@ 158 120@ 130 130@ 135 159@ 174 155@ 170 155@ 165 — Change from — Year June 24 June 17 ago +1 @ +1 -22 @ -22 53 @ 58 +3 @ +3 -5 @ -5 68 @ 73 — -6 @ -2 69 @ 74 — -6 @ -2 65 @ 70 — -6 @ -2 82 @ 87 -5 @ -5 -9 @ -7 68 @ 73 -7 @ -7 -15 @ -15 58 @ 63 -8 @ -10 -12 @ -15 55 @ 60 -7 @ -7 -20 @ -20 101 @ 114 -7 @ -7 -20 @ -20 97 @ 110 -5 @ -5 -15 @ -15 85 @ 95 Aug.-Sept. Oct.-Dec. 132@ 137 135 @ 140 155@ 160 157 @ 162 154@ 164 146 @ 156 150@ 160 142 @ 152 167@ 177 159 @ 169 146@ 156 145 @ 155 115@ 125 115 @ 125 128@ 133 125 @ 130 154@ 169 147 @ 162 150@ 165 143 @ 158 155@ 165 150 @ 160 Jan.-Mar. 135 @ 143 157 @ 162 144 @ 154 140 @ 150 157 @ 167 142 @ 152 115 @ 125 …@ … …@ … …@ … …@ …
J O J Previous Year A Current Year

$4.25

WMinneapolis wheat ) k' h g ( t b futures

30½
$12.50 $10.50 $8.50 $6.50 $4.50

July contract, $ per bu

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O

J Previous Year

A Current Year

July 5, 2011

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Food Business News - July 5, 2011

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