Food Business News - September 27, 2011 - 56

Ingredient Markets
Market commentary for one-week period ended September 23, 2011

Cash Wheat
HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red winter wheat in Kansas City were unchanged to 10c a bu higher last week. The basis was unchanged only at 11%, 12.8% and 13.6% proteins. The week’s gains contrasted with the decline in the hard winter wheat basis seen during the previous few weeks when domestic and export pipelines were ﬁlled. The turnabout last week reﬂected a modest expansion in demand for spot wheat that encountered only limited rail car loadings and wheat offers. Gulf bids on hard winter wheat also moved higher after a recent slump with weaker U.S. wheat prices encouraging some increase in foreign demand as reﬂected in larger export wheat transactions reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture for the week ended Sept. 15. Also supportive was ongoing substitution of hard winter wheat for spring wheat because of the wide spread between Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat futures. Business in the market for to-arrive wheat was limited in view of the wide carry in the hard winter wheat cash market from the nearby to OctoberDecember and from October-December to the ﬁrst quarter of 2012. The U.S.D.A. in its weekly Crop Progress report indicated winter wheat planting was 8% completed in Kansas by Sept. 18 (10% as the recent ﬁve-year average for the date), 4% in Oklahoma (16%), 8% in Texas (21%), 28% in Colorado (39%), 41% in Nebraska (41%), 30% in South Dakota (38%) and 25% in Montana (28%). “Exceptional” drought conditions continued to rule across most of Texas and slowed planting as most producers held back in hope for rain. Drought continued across Oklahoma and southern Kansas as well, although at midweek last week, far southeast Kansas and the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma

received a trace to a quarter-inch of rain while the body of Oklahoma received oneﬁfth inch to four-ﬁfths inch of rain. Oklahoma topsoil moisture on Sept. 18 was rated 97% short to very short compared with 99% a week earlier and 46% a year ago with subsoil moisture at 100% short to very short, unchanged from a week earlier and compared with 54% a year ago. The U.S.D.A.’s Oklahoma ﬁeld ofﬁce said, “Seedbed preparation was 63% complete by week’s end, 14 points behind normal.” Kansas topsoil moisture was 65% short to very short on Sept 18 compared with 74% a week earlier and 37% a year ago. Topsoil moisture was 99% short to very short in southwest Kansas, 89% in south central Kansas and 80% in southeast Kansas. Subsoil moisture for the state was 73% short to very short compared with 74% a week earlier and 39% a year ago. HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red spring wheat quoted as delivered Chicago/beyond values in relation to the Minneapolis December wheat future were 20c a bu higher to 15c lower last week. The hard spring wheat basis remained range bound. Demand for spring wheat was limited by only routine foreign demand for higher-protein wheat and competition from less expensive hard winter wheat of equivalent protein. The U.S.D.A. indicated 93% of the spring wheat crop in the six key states was harvested by Sept. 18 compared with 92% as the recent ﬁve-year average for the date. The harvest was 93% completed in North Dakota (91% as the average), 83% in

Montana (87%), 95% in Idaho (94%) and 95% in Washington (99%). The North Dakota Wheat Commission noted a killing frost in parts of northern Montana and North Dakota occurred during the middle part of the week of Sept. 12. The frost affected a portion of the latest-planted wheat, but most of the remaining crop still standing was far enough along in maturity to avoid major yield or quality loss. SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter wheat were stronger as mills sought to keep some attention on wheat even as the fall crop harvest expanded. In Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids were unchanged at 95c under K.C. December to 35c under. Gulf bids on soft red for nearby advanced 13c, to 50c over Chicago December. St. Louis mill bids were unchanged at 5c over Chicago December. Chicago mill bids rose 10c, to 10c under Chicago December. Mill bids in Toledo for nearby surged 40c to the Chicago December price; NovemberDecember, 30c over. Elevator bids were 30c under Chicago December for nearby; January, 15c under March. Cincinnati nearby mill bids advanced 10c, to 25c under Chicago December. Elevator bids for nearby were 57c under Chicago December. Michigan white wheat mill bids for nearby were 10c under Chicago December to 10c over. Winter wheat planting was 2% completed in Missouri by Sept. 18 (2% as the ﬁve-year average for the date), 2% in Arkansas (1%), 1% in Illinois (2%), 2% in Indiana (1%) and 2% in Michigan (6%). FBN

No. 1 hard spring
Basis Minneapolis Dec., delivered Chicago/beyond cents per bu Sept. 23 — Change from — Year Premium Sept. 16 Sept. 9 ago Ordinary ... ... ... … 11% ... ... ... … 12% 100 ... ... -40 @ -35 13% ... ... ... -20 @ -15 13.5% ... ... ... 25 14% 110 @ 125 +20 @ +5 +15 @ +5 60 @ 110 14.5% ... ... ... 140 @ 150 15% 90 @ 125 -15 @ +15 -25 @ +10 250 @ 350 16% ... ... ... …

Cash wheat
Sept. 23 — Change from — For shipment Bid Sept. 16 Sept. 9 No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland $ per bu September ... ... ... October 6.35 -.53 -.84 November 6.38 -.54 -.87 No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu September ... ... ... October 0.55 -.20 +.10 November 0.55 -.20 +.07 No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland Basis Minneapolis future, cents per bu September 1.00 +.05 — October 1.40 — +.20 November 1.40 — +.15 Year ago

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City Dec., cents per bu Sept. 23 Premium Ordinary 17 @ 32 11% 20 @ 35 11.2% 25 @ 40 11.4% 35 @ 50 11.6% 40 @ 55 11.8% 45 @ 60 12% 52 @ 67 12.2% 52 @ 67 12.4% 52 @ 67 12.6% 55 @ 70 12.8% 55 @ 70 13% 70 @ 85 13.2% 70 @ 85 13.4% 70 @ 85 13.6% 70 @ 85 13.8% 75 @ 90 14% 80 @ 95 — Change from — Sept. 16 Sept. 9 +2 @ +2 +2 @ +2 — -10 @ -10 +5 @ +5 -11 @ -11 +5 @ +5 -8 @ -8 +5 @ +5 -5 @ -5 +5 @ +5 -4 @ -4 +9 @ +9 +2 @ +2 +9 @ +9 +2 @ +2 +9 @ +9 +2 @ +2 +10 @ +10 +5 @ +5 — -5 @ -5 +7 @ +7 — +7 @ +7 — +5 @ +5 — — -9 @ -9 +5 @ +5 -6 @ -6 +7 @ +7 -5 @ -5
®

6.50 6.55 6.60 0.00 … 0.10 … 1.25 1.25

Year ago -80 @ -65 -70 @ -55 -69 @ -54 -65 @ -50 -60 @ -45 -55 @ -40 -28 @ -13 -28 @ -13 -28 @ -13 -28 @ -13 -28 @ -13 -28 @ -13 -28 @ -13 16 @ 31 16 @ 31 16 @ 31 16 @ 31

Exporter bids and offers
For Sept. 23 shipment Bid Offer No. 1 Hard 11%, Track Gulf Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu September +75 Dec. … October +95 Dec. 105 November +100 Dec. 110 December +100 Dec. 110 No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans Basis Chicago future, cents per bu September +55 Dec. ,,, October +65 Dec. 75 November +75 Dec. 80 December +75 Dec. 80 Year ago bid

Canadian domestic milling wheat
… +55 Dec. +55 Dec. +55 Dec. Change from Year In-store, Thunder Bay, Sept. 23 Sept. 16 ago Canadian $ per tonne Western red spring 13.5% 370.62 +14.98 323.36 Soft white spring 281.46 +.19 290.37 Amber durum 576.14 +26.22 335.62 U.S. $ per bu Western red spring 13.5% Soft white spring Amber durum 9.81 7.45 15.25 -0.05 -0.35 — 8.58 7.70 8.90

+30 +35 +45 +55

Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec.

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September 27, 2011
Food Business News - September 27, 2011

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