Food Business News - October 11, 2011 - 16

DEFATTED WHEAT GERM

The N.R.A.’s Restaurant index declines again in August
104 103 102 101 100 99 98 97 96

Restaurant Performance Index

Values less than 100 = Contraction; Values greater than 100 = Expansion

2003

2004

2005 2006

2007

2008 2009

2010 2011

Source: National Restaurant Association

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WASHINGTON — The Restaurant Performance Index fell for a second consecutive month and stood at 99.4 in August, according to the National Restaurant Association. The decline was the result of softer sales and trafﬁc levels and uncertainty among restaurant operators. “The August decline in the Restaurant Performance Index resulted from the softening of both current situation and expectations indicators as well as Hurricane Irene,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice-president of the research and knowledge group for the N.R.A. “Although restaurant operators reported positive same-store sales results in August, their six-month outlook for both sales growth and the economy continued to deteriorate.” Restaurants did have positive same-store sales changes in August, but the results were softer than recent months with 45% of operators reporting a same-store sales gain during the year while 37% of operators reported lower same-store sales. In July, 48% of operators had higher same-store sales and 34% reported a sales decline. Operators also reported a net decline in customer trafﬁc for the ﬁrst time in three months with 34% of operators reporting an increase in customer trafﬁc during the year, down from 40% of operators who reported higher trafﬁc in July. Operators also said 42% experienced a trafﬁc decline in August, up from 37% who had lower trafﬁc in July. The expectations index was at 99.5 in August, down 0.1% from July and the lowest level in nearly two years. Operators’ outlook for sales growth in coming months also is deteriorating, with 33% of operators expecting to have higher sales in six months, down from 39% last month and the lowest level in 19 months. In addition, 23% of operators expect their sales volume in six months to be lower than it was during the same period of the previous year. Pessimism also remains when it comes to operators opinions about the direction of the economy. Only 18% of operators said they expect economic conditions to improve and 31% said they expect conditions to worsen. In a report published in late September, The NPD Group, Chicago, said global food service sales sagged during the second quarter of 2011, which ended in June. According to NPD’s CREST service, which tracks commercial food service usage in a variety of countries, visits declined in Australia (-1%), Canada (-1%), Japan (-3%) and Spain (-6%). Trafﬁc remained ﬂat in Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. “With so much uncertainty surrounding the local and global economy, consumer conﬁdence remains low and hence it is difﬁcult to forecast any real improvement in food service trafﬁc,” said Guy Fielding, managing director of NPD’s U.K. food service business unit. FBN

October 11, 2011

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Food Business News - October 11, 2011

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