Food Business News - May 7, 2013 - 51

Ingredient Markets
Market commentary for one-week period ended May 3, 2013

Cash Wheat
HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red
winter wheat in Kansas City were unchanged to 7c a bu lower last week. Wheat
offers on the spot market weren’t heavy,
but the beginning of a new month brought
increased wheat shipments for application
against contracts, and this helped curb appetites for spot supply.
There were a few transactions in the
market for to-arrive wheat with some mills
across the Chicago gateway contracting supply for delivery in last-half May or
June. But for most mills, offers for June
and beyond were at levels they weren’t
prepared to pay.
Farmer selling of hard winter wheat remained light to lacking. Growers earlier
sold about 85% of their 2012 production.
They weren’t expected to sell their remaining old crop supply until their new crop
prospects become more certain.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s
winter wheat crop ratings were mixed
in the week ended April 28, declining in
Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, improving
slightly in Colorado and Montana and holding about the same in Nebraska and South
Dakota. Wheat rated good to excellent was
27% (39% poor to very poor) in Kansas, 23%
in Oklahoma (41% poor to very poor), 7% in
Texas (68%), 11% in Colorado (54%), 57% in
Montana (10%), 12% in Nebraska (44%) and
6% in South Dakota (51%).
Winter wheat progress continued to
lag well behind the average pace. Kansas
wheat was 1% headed by April 28 compared with 70% on the same date in 2012
and 19% as the recent five-year average for
the date. Wheat heading in Oklahoma was
21% compared with 29% as the average.
Texas wheat was 45% headed compared
with 56% as the average. Wheat jointing
was 13% in Colorado (50% as the average)
and 6% in Nebraska (28%).

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City July, cents per bu
May 3
Premium
Ordinary 71 @ 86
11%
83 @ 98
11.2% 86 @ 101
11.4% 86 @ 101
11.6% 95 @ 110
11.8% 95 @ 110
12% 100 @ 115
12.2% 105 @ 120
12.4% 105 @ 120
12.6% 110 @ 125
12.8% 110 @ 125
13% 121 @ 136
13.2% 121 @ 136
13.4% 126 @ 141
13.6% 131 @ 146
13.8% 134 @ 149
14% 134 @ 149

May 7, 2013

— Change from —
Apr. 26
Apr. 19
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
-5 @ -5
-3 @ -3
-7 @ -7
-3 @ -3
-3 @ -3
-1 @ -1
-1 @ -1
+4 @ +4
-6 @ -6 -11 @ -11
-6 @ -6
-6 @ -6
-6 @ -6
-6 @ -6
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
-7 @ -7
-7 @ -7
-7 @ -7 -17 @ -17

Year
ago
30 @ 45
30 @ 45
35 @ 50
50 @ 65
75 @ 90
80 @ 95
85 @ 100
85 @ 100
89 @ 104
94 @ 109
100 @ 115
105 @ 120
116 @ 131
116 @ 131
121 @ 136
143 @ 158
185 @ 200

On the basis of 570 stops across Kansas,
participants in the Wheat Quality Council’s
hard winter wheat tour forecast the average wheat yield in the state this year at
41.1 bus per acre. In 2012, the tour made
608 stops and produced a yield forecast of
49.1 bus per acre. Actual average Kansas
wheat yield in 2012 was 42 bus per acre.
Overall, tour participants indicated crop
condition in western Kansas was worse
than expected while condition across the
eastern half of the state was better than
expected. Forty-nine of the crop tour participants provided individual forecasts of
Kansas 2013 wheat production. The average of the forecasts was 313.1 million bus,
which compared with 403.9 million bus as
the tour’s 2012 crop forecast and 382.2 million bus as the actual Kansas 2012 outturn.
The 2011 outturn was 276.5 million bus, and
the recent five-year average Kansas wheat
outturn was 349 million bus.
Meanwhile, an Oklahoma wheat tour
forecast average wheat yield in that state at
25.4 bus per acre and forecast a crop of 85.5
million bus. The production forecast for the
state compared with outturns of 154.8 million bus in 2012 and 70.4 million bus in 2011
with the recent five-year average outturn at
117.9 million bus.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red
spring wheat expressed as delivered Chicago/beyond values in relation to the Minneapolis July wheat future dropped 10@28c
a bu last week.
The U.S.D.A. indicated spring wheat in
the six major states was 12% planted and
3% emerged as of April 28, compared with

No. 1 hard spring

SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat were mostly firm. Gulf bids on soft
red for May were 60c over Chicago July. St.
Louis nearby mill bids were 26c over Chicago July. Chicago mill bids were 25c over
Chicago May, unchanged; new crop, 20c
under July. Mill bids in Toledo for nearby
were 10c under Chicago July, unchanged;
new crop, also 10c under July. Elevator
bids were 12c under Chicago May for nearby; May, 9c under May; new crop, 10c under
July. Cincinnati nearby mill bids were at
5c over Chicago July; new crop, 5c under
July. Elevator bids were 14c over Chicago
May; new crop, 4c under July. Michigan
white wheat mill bids for nearby were at
10c under Chicago July to 15c over; new
crop, 5c under July to 10c over.
Winter wheat rated good to excellent
on April 28 was 71% in Missouri, 77% in Illinois, 70% in Indiana, 72% in Ohio and 55%
in Michigan. Wheat headed by April 28 was
2% in Missouri (25% as the average for the
date), zero in Illinois (19%), zero in Indiana
(7%), zero in Ohio (1%) and zero in Michigan (zero). FBN

Kansas City hard winter premiums, 12.2%
cents per bu

Basis Minneapolis July, delivered Chicago/beyond
cents per bu
May 3
— Change from —
Year
Premium Apr. 26
Apr. 19
ago
Ordinary . . .
...
...
…
11%
...
...
...
…
12%
...
...
...
…
13%
...
...
...
75 @ 120
13.5%
...
...
...
…
14%
100
-15
-26
135 @ 160
14.5%
...
...
...
…
15% 125 @ 132 -10 @ -28 -1 @ -11 175 @ 230
16%
...
...
...
…

Exporter bids and oﬀers
For
May 3
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
May
+130 July
…
June
+126 July
136
July
+126 July
…
August
+113 Sep.
…
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
May
+60 July
…
June
+47 July
54
July
+47 July
54
August
+47 Sep.
55

70% and 26%, respectively, a year ago and
37% and 10%, respectively, as the 2008-12
averages for the date. North Dakota wheat
was 2% planted compared with 63% last
year and 27% as the recent five-year average. No wheat was planted in Minnesota by
April 28 compared with 41% as the average.
Farmer selling of spring wheat remained
light. Road restrictions remained in force,
although the threat of flooding along the
Red River receded.

Year ago
bid

+95 July
+95 July
+95 July
…

+53
+54
+54
+50

July
July
July
Sep.

150
130
110
90
70
50
M

A

N

F

Cash wheat
May 3 — Change from —
For shipment
Bid
Apr. 26 Apr. 19
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
March
...
...
...
June
7.80
+.15
-.10
July
...
...
...
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
March
1.40
-.05
-.05
June
1.20
—
—
July
...
...
...
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
March
1.25
-.05
-.05
June
1.25
-.05
-.05
July
...
...
...

FOODBUSINESS NEWS

®

Year
ago

6.80
6.80
…
1.05
1.00
…
1.45
1.45
1.40

51
Food Business News - May 7, 2013

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