Milling & Baking News - December 23, 2003 - 14

D A T A

As projected exports rise, 2004
carryover cut to 583 million bus
WASHINGTON - The carryover of
wheat June 1, 2004, was projected at 583
million bus in data issued Dec. 11 by the
Economic Research Service of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture.
The carryover forecast was 25 million
bus smaller than the Department's November figure but remained 19% larger
than the 491 million bus carried over into
the 2003-04 crop year. At 583 million bus,
the carryover would be far smaller than
the 777 million bus in 2002 and 876 million bus in 2001.
The 2004 carryover forecast has varied
widely from month to month since the
first projection of 511 million bus was

issued in May. The forecasts moved up
sharply from that level as crop prospects
improved with the carryover projection
peaking at 738 million bus in July and
then either falling or holding steady in
every month since. The latest forecast of
583 million bus was down 21% from the
peak figure in July.
Improved export prospects are the
largest contributor to the drop in the
carryover forecast. In the latest data,
projected exports were raised to 1,100
million bus, up 25 million bus from last
month and up 29% from 854 million bus
in 2002-03. "The projection for larger
exports is based on stronger-than-expected shipments to date and
an increase in the world wheat
Wheat supply, disappearance
2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 2000-01 import forecast," the E.R.S. said
in the Dec. 15 issue of "Wheat
- (million bus) -
Outlook."
Supply
Exports were the only allCarryover
491
777
876
950 wheat supply/demand factor
Crop
2,337
1,619
1,957
2,232 adjusted from November. Since
Imports
75
77
108
90 July, the 2003-04 wheat exports
Total
2,903
2,473
2,941
3,272 forecast has been raised 170 milDomestic disappearance
lion bus, a figure not far from
Food
910
918
926
950 the 155 million bus by which the
Seed
85
84
84
80 2004 carryover forecast has been
Feed
225
126
190
304 lowered.
Total
1,220
1,128
1,200
1,334
The national average farm
Exports
1,100
854
964
1,062
wheat price for 2003-04 was foreTotal disappearance
2,320
1,982
2,164
2,396
Ending stocks
583
491
777
876 cast at $3.20 to $3.40 a bu, up 10c
from November on the low side
of the range but still 16c to 36c beWheat exports by classes
low the 2002-03 average price of
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
$3.56. The 2001-02 average wheat
- (million bus) -
price was $2.78.
Hard winter
500
307
349
393
In supply/demand data by
Soft red
125
105
199
180
class, adjustments were made
Hard spring
255
258
216
227
White
180
147
147
206 in carryover forecasts for hard
Durum
40
37
50
56 winter, soft red and white wheat.
Total
1,100
854
961
1,062 Ending stocks of hard winter in
2004 were projected at 270 milWheat carryover by classes
lion bus, down 38 million bus
2004
2003
2002
2001
from November but still 44%
- (million bus) -
above the 2003 carryover of 188
Hard winter
270
188
363
411 million bus.
The carryover of soft red
Soft red
46
55
78
135
Hard spring
153
145
230
210 winter was forecast at 46 milWhite
83
75
73
75 lion bus, up 18 million bus from
Durum
30
28
33
45 November but down 16% from
Total
583
491
777
876 55 million bus in 2003. Hard
spring ending stocks were
Domestic wheat use by classes
projected at 153 million bus,
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
unchanged from last month but
- (million bus) -
up 6% from 145 million bus in
Hard winter
486
480
467
500 2003.
Soft red
281
264
257
289
White wheat ending stocks
Hard spring
252
204
303
342 were projected at 83 million
White
116
103
95
118 bus, down 5 million bus from
Durum
85
77
80
85 November but up 11% from
Total
1,220
1,128
1,201
1,334 75 million bus in 2003. The
14 / Milling & Baking News, December 23, 2003

2004 durum carryover was projected
at 30 million bus, unchanged from last
month but up 7% from 2003.
Exports of hard winter were projected
at 500 million bus, up 25 million bus
from last month and up 63% from 307
million bus in 2002-03. Soft red exports
in 2003-04 were forecast at 125 million
bus, unchanged from last month but up
19% from the year before.
Hard spring exports were forecast at
255 million bus in 2003-04, unchanged
from November and down 1% from
258 million bus last year. White wheat
exports were forecast at 180 million bus,
unchanged from November but up 22%
from 147 million in 2002-03.
Durum wheat exports in 2003-04 were
projected at 40 million bus, the same as
last month, but up 8% from 37 million
the year before.
While total wheat imports were left
unchanged from November at 75 million
bus, the Department adjusted wheat imports by class forecast for 2003-04 while
also adjusting its figures for earlier years.
In explanatory notes within "Wheat
Outlook," the Department said changes
were based on information from importers of Ontario grain. "Milling characteristics and protein content suggest
that the Ontario red winter wheat is
more like U.S. soft red winter than any
other class of U.S. wheat," the E.R.S.
said. "These import changes resulted in
corresponding changes in total supplies
and in feed and residual use (for earlier
years)."
For 2003-04, the U.S.D.A. raised projected soft red imports to 18 million bus
from zero, and hard red winter imports
were lowered to 5 million bus from 18
million. The adjustment accounted for
the entire dramatic increase from November in the soft red carryover projection for next year to 46 million bus from
the 28 million projected last month. MBN

Changes in historical
imports by crop year
(million bus)
Crop year
2002-03

Wheat class
Hard winter

7.409

0.275

23.336

23.359

6.125

13.359

64.024

60.813

Hard spring
Soft red

2000-01

Hard spring
Soft red

1999-00

Revised

Hard spring
Soft red
2001-02

Original
estimate

Hard spring
Soft red

3.211

58.761

55.865

2.896

59.664

55.922

3.742

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Milling & Baking News - December 23, 2003

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