Milling & Baking News - March 2, 2004 - 35

I N G R E D I E N T

and other wheat buyers have adjusted to
the poor rail logistics. "Double-buying"
has been the norm. Should railroads begin the catch-up on their deliveries of
wheat, the basis could take a tumble. But
there wasn't a hint that such a catch-up
was likely anytime soon.
Low-protein wheat encountered narrowing local outlets. Last week saw the
first evidence of weakness at higher protein levels in weeks. For several weeks,
premiums on high-protein hard winter
had derived support from the wide
spread between Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat futures prices and a strong
cash market for hard spring wheat.
As has been the case for the past several weeks, most rail cars offered spot had
Kyle billing, which restricted shipping
directions, and/or Colorado origin, which
was less sought by millers. One miller
suggested that up to 70% of recent spot
offers had been originated along the Kyle,
which demonstrated just how far behind
the B.N.S.F. and the U.P. have been in placing rail cars and power and completing
shipments. If it weren't for the Kyle wheat,
the basis likely would have been much
stronger, the miller said. At the same time,
mill appetite for such wheat was limited.
Elevators offered wheat for April and
May, but mills weren't bidders because of
the slow pace of bakery flour booking for
the second quarter of 2004. Mills also
were reluctant to book prospective deferred wheat needs because of an inverse
in wheat futures prices May to July.
Farmer selling picked up at points at
the week's outset in response to wide
gains in wheat futures prices. Selling soon
subsided. No rush had been expected as
the growers didn't have that much left
from the 2003 crop in their hands.
North Texas and southern Oklahoma
received rain last week. Conditions farther north were mostly dry.
Texas wheat condition showed minor
improvement in the week ended Feb. 22,
with 14% rated good to excellent and 58%
poor to very poor, versus 14% and 64%,
respectively, the week before.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red
spring wheat at Minneapolis last week
were unchanged to 20c a bu lower. The
weaker tone reflected less urgent demand from millers. A factor was fairly
heavy applications against contracts and
eager buying done the previous week,
which took some of the edge off nearby
needs. Some trains offered had to be carried over from one day to the next.
Wide gains in wheat futures prices encouraged a moderate expansion in
farmer selling early in the week. But the
market had expected more, given the
wide gains in wheat futures prices.
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Farmer selling of wheat subsided at midweek. But renewed strength in prices toward the week's end was expected to
draw out some more producer wheat.
Railroads remained very late in placing rail cars and shipping wheat.
The market for spring wheat in the Pacific Northwest remained firm, with the
market at the Gulf expanding. China recently has been a heavy buyer of spring
wheat both for shipment during the cur-

W E E K

rent year and in 2004-05.
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat were firm to stronger. Exporter
bids on soft red also moved up.
In Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids were
unchanged at 6@31c over K.C. May. Gulf
bids on nearby advanced 10c a bu, to 40c
over Chicago May. St. Louis mill bids for
nearby advanced 5c a bu, to 35c over Chicago May for less than 2 p.p.m. vomitoxin

Minneapolis Wheat Futures

No. 1 Hard Winter

May contract, $ per bu

Basis Kansas City May, cents per bu
Premium Week's Change Year ago
Ordinary
24 @34
-1 @ -1
40@50
11%
28 @38
-2 @ -2
40@50
11.2%
29 @39
-2 @ -2
40@50
11.4%
29 @39
-2 @ -2
40@50
11.6%
30 @40
-2 @ -2
40@50
11.8%
32 @42
-2 @ -2
40@50
12%
33 @43
-1 @ -1
40@50
12.2%
34 @44
-1 @ -1
40@50
12.4%
34 @44
-1 @ -1
40@50
12.6%
36 @46
-1 @ -1
40@50
12.8%
37 @47
-3 @ -3
40@50
13%
38 @48
-3 @ -3
40@50
13.2%
39 @49
-3 @ -3
40@50
13.4%
40 @50
-3 @ -3
40@50
13.6%
41 @51
-3 @ -3
40@50
13.8%
42 @52
-3 @ -3
40@50
14%
43 @53
-3 @ -3
40@50

Minneapolis Wheat Futures
July contract, $ per bu

No. 1 Hard Spring, Minneapolis
Milling quality, basis March, cents per bu
Premium Week's Change Year ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
12%
...
...
...
13%
30
... @ -15
...
14%
42 @ 60
-3 @ -10
65 @ 70
14.5%
...
...
...
15%
65 @ 70
-20 @ -15
65 @ 80
16%
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...

Wheat Futures
No. 1 Hard Amber Durum

$ per bu
Week's
change
Feb. 27 (cents) High
Kansas City
March
3.841/4
+2 4.03
May
3.911/2 +71/2 4.06
July
3.901/2 +83/4 4.011/2
September 3.941/4 +93/4 4.031/2
December 4.011/2 +83/4 4.10
Chicago
March
3.803/4 +91/4 3.95
May
3.903/4 +113/4 4.04
July
3.921/4 +153/4 4.00
September 3.943/4 +141/2 4.01
December 4.023/4 +151/4 4.08
Minneapolis
March
4.391/2 +161/2 4.48
May
4.271/4 +151/2 4.343/4
July
4.223/4 +171/4 4.271/2
September 4.17
+19 4.211/2
December 4.20
+18 4.24

Track, $ per bu
Low

Year
ago

3.82
3.88
3.86
3.90
3.97

3.41
3.33
3.26
3.30
3.403/4

3.75
3.83
3.81
3.851/2
3.93

3.121/2
3.101/4
3.043/4
3.091/4
3.191/2

4.25
4.15
4.09
4.01
4.031/2

3.813/4
3.71
3.591/4
3.53
3.56

Choice milling

Feb. 27
5.35

Week's
change
0.05

Year
ago
5.60

Exporter bids and offers
No. 1 Hard 11%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
For shipment
Bid
Offer
Year ago bid
March
60 over March ... 61 over May
April
55 over May
61 61 over May
May
...
...

No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
For shipment
Bid
Offer
Year ago bid
March
42 over May
47 53 over May
April
45 over May
50 54 over May
May
40 over May
45 48 over May

Milling & Baking News, March 2, 2004 / 35

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Milling & Baking News - March 2, 2004

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