Milling & Baking News - July 27, 2004 - 21

D A T A

U.S. wheat carryover forecast
little changed from month ago
WASHINGTON - The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department
of Agriculture on July 12 reduced its
projected U.S. carryover of wheat on
June 1, 2005, to 494 million bus. The
new projection was down only 1 million bus from the Department's June
forecast, but down 52 million bus, or
about 10%, from the 2004 carryover of
546 million bus. It was about even with
the June 1, 2003, wheat inventory of
491 million bus.
The 1-million-bu reduction in carryover was the result of a 5-million-bus
increase in beginning stocks and a 1million-bu decrease in seed use. These
were offset by a 2-million-bus decrease
in projected production and a 5-millionbu decrease in imports. The U.S.D.A.
left 2004-05 food use, feed use and export projections unchanged from June.
July projections included the first
survey-based spring wheat production
forecasts and updated planted area estimates from the June 30 acreage report.
The U.S.D.A. increased its spring wheat
production forecast based on larger
planted area and higher yields, plus a
higher harvested-to-planted ratio.
Projected U.S. wheat supply in 200405 was 2,665 million bus, down 2 million bus from 2,667 million bus in June
and down 233 million bus, or 8%, from
2,898 million bus in 2003-04. Beginning
stocks were up 5 million bus at 546
million bus. All wheat production was
projected at 2,059 million bus, down
2 million bus from 2,061 million bus
in June, and down 278 million bus, or
12%, from 2,337 million bus the previous year. Wheat imports were projected
at 60 million bus, down 5 million bus
from June and down 10 million bus
from last year.
Domestic use of all wheat for 2004-05
was projected at 1,196 million bus, down
1 million bus from June and the previous year. Seed use, projected at 81 million bus, was down 1 million bus from
June but up 1 million from the previous
year. Food use, at 915 million bus, was
unchanged from June and up 15 million
bus from the previous year. Feed and
residual use, at 200 million bus, also was
unchanged from June, but was down 17
million bus from 2003-04.
Exports for 2004-05 were unchanged
from June at 975 million bus, but were
down 180 million bus, or nearly 16%,
from 1,155 million bus the previous
year.
Total disappearance for 2004-05 was
nearly unchanged at 2,171 million bus,
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Carryover of durum wheat was projected at 31 million bus for 2005, up 5
million bus, or 19%, from 26 million bus
on June 1, 2004. Total supply was even
with the previous year at 145 million
bus. The U.S.D.A. projected domestic
use at 84 million bus, up 8 million bus
from a year earlier. Exports were forecast
at 30 million bus, down 13 million bus,
or 30%, from 43 million bus in 2003-04.
The average farm price for all wheat
in 2004-05 was projected at $3.20 to
$3.80 a bu, down 5c a bu from June and
compared with $3.40 a bu in 2003-04 and
$3.56 a bu in 2002-03. MBN

down 1 million bus from June, but down
181 million bus, or 8%, from 2,352 million bus a year ago.
In its first wheat by class projections
for 2004-05, the U.S.D.A. projected the
hard winter wheat carryover on June 1,
2005, at 206 million bus, down 22 million bus, or 10% from 228 million bus
the previous year. With production at
838 million bus, total supply of hard
winter was projected at 1,067 million
bus, down 185 million bus, or
15%, from 1,252 million bus in
Wheat supply, disappearance
2004. Domestic use was put at
481 million bus, down 31 million
2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02
bus, or 6%, from 512 million bus
- (million bus) -
the previous year. The U.S.D.A.
Supply
projected exports of hard winter
Carryover
546
491
777
876
wheat at 380 million bus, down
Crop
2,059
2,337
1,606
1,947
132 million bus, or 26%, from 512
Imports
60
70
77
108
million bus in 2003-04.
Total
2,665
2,898
2,460
2,931
Carryover of hard spring
Domestic disappearance
wheat for 2005 was projected at
Food
915
900
918
926
134 million bus, down 22 million
Seed
81
80
84
83
bus, or 14%, from 156 million
Feed
200
217
113
182
bus a year earlier. Total supply
Total
1,196
1,197
1,115
1,192
was 624 million bus, down 31
Exports
975
1,155
854
962
million bus, or 5%, from 655 milTotal disappearance
2,171
2,352
1,969
2,154
lion bus in 2003-04. Domestic use
Ending stocks
494
546
491
777
was projected at 260 million bus,
up 26 million bus, or 11%, from
Wheat carryover by class
234 million bus the previous
year. Hard spring exports were
2005
2004
2003
2002
forecast at 230 million bus, down
- (million bus) -
35 million bus, or 13%, from 265
Hard winter
206
228
188
363
million bus the previous year.
Soft red
54
64
55
78
Soft red wheat carryover was
Hard spring
134
156
145
230
projected at 54 million bus for
White
69
72
75
73
2005, down 10 million bus, or
Durum
31
26
28
33
16%, from 64 million on June
Total
494
546
491
777
1, 2004. Total supply was put
at 459 million bus, only slightly
Wheat exports by classes
below the 2003-04 estimate of
462 million bus. Domestic use,
2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02
projected at 255 million bus,
- (million bus) -
also was about even with the
Hard winter
380
512
309
349
previous year's 253 million bus.
Soft red
150
145
105
199
Exports of 150 million bus for
Hard spring
230
265
259
216
2004-05 were up 5 million bus
White
185
190
148
147
Durum
30
43
32
50
from the previous year.
Total
975
1,155
854
961
White wheat carryover was
projected at 69 million bus, down
3 million bus from 2004. Total
Domestic wheat use by classes
supply of 370 million bus was
down 14 million bus, or 4%, from
2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02
384 million bus the previous
- (million bus) -
year. Domestic use of 116 million
Hard winter
481
512
486
467
bus was down 6 million bus from
Soft red
255
253
252
257
Hard spring
260
234
201
303
122 million bus the previous
White
116
122
94
95
year. White wheat exports, proDurum
84
76
82
80
jected at 185 million bus, were
Total
1,196
1,197
1,115
1,201
down slightly from 190 million
bus in 2003-04.
Milling & Baking News, July 27, 2004 / 21

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Milling & Baking News - July 27, 2004

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