Milling & Baking News - December 21, 2004 - 38

I N G R E D I E N T

W E E K

at 75c over Chicago March.
There were concerns that some acres
intended for soft red might go unseeded.
The Arkansas crop was 89% planted by
Dec. 12 compared with 98% as the recent
five-year average for the date. Fortyseven per cent of the state's crop rated
good to excellent, with 45% fair.
DURUM. The price of choice milling hard
amber durum at Minneapolis held at $5.10
a bu. Durum mill grind was 4½ to 5½ days
last week. But mill operations were expected to be down to three to four days in
the holiday-shortened weeks. Mills were
comfortable with existing pipelines and
didn't feel compelled to reach out for spot.
Producers were inactive sellers last
week, and no expansion in sales was expected until after Jan. 1. MBN

Millfeed
Irregular price moves stood out across
the major millfeed markets last week as
the trade geared up for holiday-shortened
weeks ahead. In several regions, curtailed
flour mill grind coupled with prospects
for colder weather set the stage for demand to pick up. But, by midweek, the
milder weather and tight supplies that did
materialize in many cases failed to spur
buyers to actively pursue more midds.
While prices for spot and last-half December delivery finished mixed, deferred prices again were lower. Confirmed trading was lackluster. Few participants stepped forward to secure immediate needs, and fewer booked cover-

age for the early part of 2005. A $20-plus
spread between Upper Midwest and
Southwest prices was sufficient to cover
freight and would likely result in rail
shipments south, trade sources said.
Pricing remained well off historical
norms. By the end of the week, most regions were quoting prices at least $20 a
ton, and in some cases $40 a ton, below
year-ago prices. The only exception was
the Pacific Northwest, where levels were
a shade higher than during the same time
a year ago.
Flour grind continued to slow in a few
markets, with the expectation that run
times would fall off even further this
week and next. At the same time, grind in
California remained heavier than expected, which played as a key factor in
pressuring prices in that market's spot
position. California's problems run
deeper than heavy grind, though, as high
prices have prompted some feed mixers
to substitute rice bran for midds.
Wheat germ held steady, with buyers
seeking product. Little trading was done.
Bulk middlings at $64 a ton in Kansas
City and $46 a ton Minneapolis compared with yellow corn and sorghum at
$63.50 a ton K.C. Corn gluten feed was
steady at $60 a ton. Dehydrated alfalfa
jumped $6 a ton to $128 on a spike of new
business in Central Nebraska. MBN

Semolina
Bookings of semolina, granulars and
durum flour were light last week. Price
changes were narrow.

Bulk Middlings

30-day shipment, Kansas City, $ per ton

30-day shipment, Chicago West, $ per ton

The price of choice milling hard amber
durum at Minneapolis held at $5.10 a bu.
Recent price stability and prospects for
more of the same made for a market that
lacked urgency. Pasta manufacturers
have covered most of their needs through
January. But few have extended contract
balances beyond the end of that month.
Hand-to-mouth booking was more the
rule than the exception, and this likely
would continue unless prices showed
some significant change.
Shipments slackened with several
pasta plants planning downtime in the
period between Christmas and New
Year's. Durum mill grind last week
ranged from 4½ to 5½ days. MBN

Family Flour
Sales of national and regional brands
of family flour dropped off last week,
continuing the typical decline that takes
place as the home baking season draws to
a close. There were no changes in carlot
list prices.
The fall-off in orders was dramatic.
Lead times required to fill orders declined from 14 days to five or less. This
compared with up to 21 days just a month
ago. Packaging lines operated four days
last week, with further decreases slated
for the holiday-shortened weeks. Doldrums then will take hold and continue
until the weeks leading up to Easter.
Private label promotions continued,
with 88c per 5-lb bag commonplace on
grocery shelves across middle sections of
the country. Some manufacturers indicated November volume up 5% from a
year ago. Others suggested sales on par
with a year ago. But even a good baking
season wasn't expected to reverse the
steady year-to-year volume decline in the
category. MBN

Bakery Shortening

Bulk Middlings

Nationally Advertised Family Flour

Dec. 17 close, $ per ton, for following shipping periods
December January
February
Kansas City
65 @ 67 64 @ 68 58 @ 62
Chicago West
61 @ 67 61 @ 67 57 @ 65
Buffalo
46 @ 50 43 @ 48 42 @ 46
South. California 80 @ 86 84 @ 88 81 @ 85
North. California 80 @ 86 84 @ 88 81 @ 85
Pacific Northwest 85 @ 90 85 @ 90 85 @ 90

Dollars

California and Pacific Northwest prices, delivered rail

38 / Milling & Baking News, December 21, 2004

March
58 @ 62
57 @ 62
42 @ 46
80 @ 84
80 @ 84
85 @ 90

8-5s

Dec. 17
13.36

Year ago
12.16

Semolina
f.o.b. Minneapolis, $ per cwt
Week's
Year
Dec. 17
change
ago
13.55 @ 13.65 -.10
12.95@ 13.05

Bookings of bakery shortening expanded last week. Price changes were irregular.
The cash basis on soybean oil finally
began to weaken. Advancing soybean oil
futures prices largely offset the effect of
the weaker basis on product pricing. But
several buyers already had taken futures
coverage through the first quarter of
2005, and the decline in the cash basis
provided them an excellent opportunity
to add to their coverage in JanuaryMarch. Should the basis continue to
weaken, additional first-quarter coverage could be taken before the holidays.
But most buyers were expected to hold
off a while longer as further setbacks
were expected.
The canola oil supply expanded. The
premium to soybean oil asked for canola
oil remained at 11¼c a lb Midwest. But
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - December 21, 2004

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