Milling & Baking News - February 22, 2005 - 50

I N G R E D I E N T

ranges dropped 5@8c a bu last week, and
the bottom sides dropped 10@13c. The
losses continued the downward trend that
was established a couple of weeks earlier.
Toward the end of last week, the basis gave
signs of steadying, at least temporarily.
The widening in the premium range
for each protein reflected the highly
variable quality of wheat offered on
spot market. Offers have included wheat
with low falling number and excessive
insect-damaged-kernel counts that mills
couldn't use. The spread between top
and bottom ends of premium ranges had
been 15c a bu since late December and
10c a bu before that for several months.
The last time the spread had been 20c a
bu was from May to September 2003.
The basis overall remained on the
defensive. Cancellations of rail cars by
some country elevators having difficulty
procuring replacement wheat from farmer
sales have enabled railroads to make at
least limited progress toward catching
up on shipments of wheat to be applied
against contracts. The current increased
applications and the probability of receiving
wheat on contract within two to three weeks
of the scheduled delivery date as compared
with the recent four weeks plus helped curb
mill appetites. A weaker cash market at
Gulf export elevators also was noted.
While the basis declined, the inverse
in Kansas City wheat futures prices
provided the country a contrary signal.
The inverse traded out as wide as 12½c
before narrowing to 11½c on Thursday.
The inverse on Friday the previous week
had been 9¾c.
There was very little business in the
market for to-arrive wheat done last
week, with mills eying the possibility of
continued basis erosion in the deferred
positions.
Farmer selling of remaining old crop
was light.
Texas wheat was rated 57% good to
excellent on Feb. 13 and 34% fair. This
rating compared with 63% good to
excellent and 29% fair a week earlier. A
problem with sustaining condition in
that state has been excessive rainfall in
many areas.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red
spring wheat at Minneapolis dropped
3@38c a bu last week. The May became the
basic month at an 8c discount to the March.
The losses were sustained at the week's
outset on the shift to the May as the basic
future, and the market mostly steadied at
the lower levels thereafter. The uncertainty
engendered by the basic month shift itself
discouraged early-week business. And
coincident with that shift were fairly heavy
offers that set buyers back on their heels.

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As a result, most trains and cars offered
Monday did not trade, lacking for bids.
Demand reemerged as the week wore on,
and this had a steadying effect.
Mill interest in wheat was spotty.
Applications against current contracts
kept mills out of desperate straits. While
railroads remained badly behind in
completing shipments, there has been at
least minor improvement in service.
Export elevators at Duluth and the Gulf

W E E K

stepped in to purchase a few spot trains.
Farmer selling was limited.
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat were firm, even as exporter bids
backed off. Mills entertained little hope
of any appreciable easing in the cash
market before new crop.
In Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids
held at 50@75c over K.C. March. Gulf
bids on nearby dropped 11c a bu, to 87c

Minneapolis Wheat Futures

No. 1 Hard Winter

March contract, $ per bu

Basis Kansas City March, cents per bu
Premium Week's Change Year ago
Ordinary
50 @70
-13 @ -8
29@39
11%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
34@44
11.2%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
35@45
11.4%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
35@45
11.6%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
36@46
11.8%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
38@48
12%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
38@48
12.2%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
39@49
12.4%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
39@49
12.6%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
41@51
12.8%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
44@54
13%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
45@55
13.2%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
46@56
13.4%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
47@57
13.6%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
48@58
13.8%
50 @70
-13 @ -8
49@59
14%
60 @80
-10 @ -5
50@60

Minneapolis Wheat Futures
May contract, $ per bu

No. 1 Hard Spring, Minneapolis
Milling quality, basis March, cents per bu
Ordinary
11%
12%
13%
13.5%
14%
14.5%
15%
16%
17%

Wheat Futures

Week's Change Year ago
...
...
...
...
...
...
-3
30 @45
-8 @-23
...
-23 @-13
45 @70
-23
...
-38 @ -8
85
...
...
...
...

No. 1 Hard Amber Durum

$ per bu
Week's
change
Feb. 18 (cents)
Kansas City
March
3.30½
+1
May
3.16¾
-3
July
3.08
-3½
September 3.15
-3
December 3.24
-4
Chicago
March
2.96
+1½
May
3.04
+1
July
3.11
+2
September 3.16½
+2
December 3.23¾
+1
Minneapolis
March
3.33½
-7
May
3.30
-2½
July
3.29¾
-1
September 3.30
+1
December 3.37
+¾

Premium
...
...
...
50
75
105 @ 115
150
175 @ 210
...
...

High

Low

Year
ago

3.37
3.23½
3.16
3.21½
3.32

3.23½
3.15½
3.07
3.13
3.23

3.82¼
3.84
3.81¾
3.84½
3.92¾

3.02¼
3.09½
3.17
3.22½
3.32

2.92
2.99½
3.06
3.11
3.20½

3.71½
3.79
3.76½
3.80¼
3.87½

3.45½
3.37
3.35½
3.35½
3.43½

3.26
3.26½
3.27¾
3.27¾
3.35½

4.23
4.11¾
4.05½
3.98
4.02

Track, $ per bu
Choice milling

Feb. 18
5.25

Week's
change
-

Year
ago
5.30

Exporter bids and offers
No. 1 Hard 11%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
For shipment
Bid
Offer
February
73 over March 81
March
71 over March 78
April
80 over May
...

Year ago bid
57 over March
57 over March
53 over May

No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
For shipment
Bid
Offer Year ago bid
February
87 over March 95 40 over March
March
87 over March 93
43 over March
April
80 over May
90
45 over May

Milling & Baking News, February 22, 2005 / 49
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Milling & Baking News - February 22, 2005

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