Milling & Baking News - March 29, 2005 - 26

D A T A

Soft red winter wheat crop looks
to be smallest since 1986
TAMPA, FLA. - The 2005 soft red
winter wheat crop will be the smallest
since 1986, a panel of flour milling and
grain industry executives told the Soft
Wheat Milling Committee of the North
American Millers' Association during
that group's annual meeting March 15
in Tampa. The panel projected 2005
production of soft red winter wheat
at 309,406,000 bus, down 71,259,000
bus, or 19%, from the 2004 outturn of
380,305,000 bus and compared with a
crop of 380,435,000 bus in 2003.
Failed plantings because of a late
row crops harvest and excessively wet
weather in some key states last fall
accounted for most of the projected
production shortfall from the year
before, according to panel members.
Also, producers in some states opted
to plant alternative crops because of
problems with scab in recent winter
wheat crops or because other crops
seemed to promise greater returns.
Offsetting somewhat the impact
on production of sharply reduced
projected harvested area was a significant shift in acreage to soft red winter

wheat from soft white winter wheat
noted in Michigan and New York.
The soft wheat crop forecast panel
included Grover Van Hoose, grain
buyer, The Mennel Milling Co., Fostoria, Ohio; Paul Zysset, LansingWright Lorenz, Overland Park, Kas.;
Connie Barr, vice-president, Siemer
Milling Co., Teutopolis, Ill.; Michael
Wagner, western region sales manager, Horizon Milling L.L.C., Minneapolis; and Scott Syslo, director,
wheat procurement, ConAgra Food
Ingredients Co., Omaha.
Mr. Van Hoose provided forecasts
for Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and West Virginia.
"Due to the wet planting season,
planted acres in Indiana are down
20% from a year ago," Mr. Van Hoose
said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated Indiana areas seeded
to winter wheat at 360,000 acres in
its Winter Wheat Seedings report issued Jan. 12. Mr. Van Hoose estimated
harvested acres at 350,000, with a
yield of 61 bus per acre. He projected

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Indiana soft red winter production at
21,350,000 bus.
"At this time, the wheat crop in
Michigan appears to have no problems," Mr. Van Hoose said. "But
everyone I spoke with thinks planted
acres in Michigan are down more than
the 2% the U.S.D.A. estimated. They
also think there was more of a shift
from soft white to soft red acres this
year."
The U.S.D.A. estimated winter
wheat plantings in Michigan at
650,000 acres. But Mr. Van Hoose
estimated planted area at 630,000
acres, down 5% from the year before.
His projection for harvested area in
Michigan was 620,000 acres, with a
yield projected at 65 bus per acre. Mr.
Van Hoose projected winter wheat
production in Michigan at 40,300,000
bus. Of that total, 24,180,000 bus, or
60%, would be soft red winter wheat,
and 16,120,000 bus, or 40%, would be
soft white. In contrast, 53% of the 2004
Michigan outturn was soft red winter,
and 44% soft white.
"The wheat crop in Ohio was planted in a timely manner, with 75% of the
crop seeded by mid-October," Mr. Van
Hoose said. "Soil conditions were very
good. The last half of October and the
first part of November was wetter,
and the balance of the crop was not
planted in as good conditions ... there
has been good snow cover most of
the winter, with record amounts at
the end of December. December was
followed by a wet January, with quite
a bit of ponding and freezing leaving
the ground too wet.
"I spoke with one analyst who said
he was pleasantly surprised when he
began to scout Ohio fields. He feels
the crop is in better condition than at
the same time last year."
The U.S.D.A. estimated planted
area in Ohio at 840,000 acres. Mr. Van
Hoose projected harvested area at
825,000 acres, with a projected yield of
64 bus per acre. He projected Ohio soft
red winter production at 52,800,000
bus, down 4% from 2004.
Mr. Van Hoose projected harvested
area in Wisconsin at 180,000 acres,
with a yield of 60 bus per acre, for
a total soft red winter production of
10,800,000 bus. There are no white
wheat acres, Mr. Van Hoose said.
Mr. Zysset provided forecasts for
Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey,
New York and Pennsylvania. Mr.
Zysset pointed out that the region
has struggled with quality in recent
years. One response to the quality
concerns has been increased planting
of soft red winter wheat in New York
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Milling & Baking News - March 29, 2005

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