Milling & Baking News - March 29, 2005 - 28

D A T A

at the expense of soft white wheat. and thawing raised some concern.
Carolina wheat plantings at 580,000
Soft white wheat seemed to be more
Ms. Barr noted that 60% of the Illi- acres, but Mr. Wagner estimated area
susceptible to damage from scab than nois crop was rated good to excellent. at 530,000 acres.
soft red winter wheat last year, when She expected some winterkill in that
"But what acres were planted look
both classes sustained considerable state, and all three states she tracked great," Mr. Wagner said. Harvested
damage.
are concerned about insect issues, area was projected at 450,000 acres,
Mr. Zysset estimated that 60% of aphids and Hessian fly.
with an average yield of 50 bus per
the New York winter wheat area of
Ms. Barr projected harvested area acre. Mr. Wagner projected a North
105,000 acres was seeded to soft red in Illinois at 617,500 acres, with an Carolina crop of 22,500,000 bus.
winter wheat and 40% to soft white average yield of 58 bus per acre. IlMr. Wagner estimated South Carowheat last fall. In contrast, for the 2004 linois production was projected at lina wheat planted area at 160,000
crop, 21% of the winter
acres,
compared
wheat plantings were
with the U.S.D.A.
Soft red winter wheat production by state
soft red winter wheat
estimate of 180,000
Harvested area
2005 Soft red
2004
Change from
with the remainder
acres. He projected
(1,000 acres)
Yield
(1,000 bus)
(1,000 bus)
2004
soft white wheat.
harvested area at
Ala.
70
45
3,135
2,882
9%
Mr. Zysset projected
140,000 acres, with
Ark.
200
51
10,198
32,860
-69%
New
York
winter
an average yield
Del.
45
58
2,610
2,726
-4%
wheat harvested area
of 46 bus per acre.
Fla.
14
45
639
675
-5%
of 110,000 acres, 66,000
Production in the
Ga.
207
48
9,916
8,550
16%
acres of soft red winter,
state was projected
Ill.
617
58
35,456
53,100
-33%
and 44,000 acres of soft
at 6,440,000 bus.
Ind.
350
61
21,350
27,280
-22%
white winter wheat.
The
U.S.D.A.
Kas.
0
0
0
0
0%
He projected average
plantings estimate
Ky.
313
58
17,416
20,520
-15%
winter wheat yield
for Virginia was
La.
120
48
5,743
7,920
-27%
at 54 bus per acre.
220,000 acres. But
Md.
137
58
7,946
8,555
-7%
Mr. Zysset projected
Mr. Wagner said
Mich.
372
65
24,180
21,709
11%
New York soft red
200,000 acres was a
Miss.
97
50
4,869
7,155
-32%
winter wheat producmore realistic estiMo.
609
52
30,084
45,942
-35%
tion at 3,564,000 bus,
mate. He projected
N.J.
24
50
1,200
1,128
6%
and soft white winter
harvested area at
N.Y.
66
54
3,564
1,113
220%
wheat production at
190,000 acres, with
N.C.
450
50
22,500
23,000
-2%
2,376,000 bus.
an average yield of
Ohio
825
64
52,800
55,180
-4%
Mr. Zysset said he
60 bus per acre. VirOkla.
46
38
1,900
1,645
16%
disagreed with the
ginia soft red winter
Pa.
140
50
7,000
6,615
6%
U.S.D.A. estimate for
production was proS.C.
140
46
6,440
7,920
-19%
winter wheat planted
jected at 11,400,000
Tenn.
192
50
9,593
13,720
-30%
area in Pennsylvania at
bus.
Texas
245
33
8,099
8,680
-7%
180,000 acres. He sugMr. Syslo proVa.
190
60
11,400
9,900
15%
gested plantings in the
vided forecasts for
W. Va.
4
52
208
260
-20%
state were down 5%
the southern states
Wis.
180
60
10,800
12,096
-11%
to 10%, not up 25,000
and the southern
acres as estimated by
Plains. Mr. Syslo
U.S. total
5,653
54.7
309,046
380,305
-19%
the U.S.D.A. He proforecast crops larger
Note: 2004 soft red production figures are estimated based on U.S.D.A. winter wheat production and acrejected harvested area
than a year ago for
age distribution by class estimates.
in the state at 140,000
Alabama, Georgia,
acres, with an average
Texas and Oklayield of 50 bus per acre. Mr. Zysset 35,456,000 bus, down 33% from a homa. But he forecast smaller crops in
projected the Pennsylvania soft red year ago. Ms. Barr projected Missouri Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana, Missiscrop at 7,000,000 bus.
harvested area at 609,000 acres, with sippi and Tennessee.
Ms. Barr provided forecasts for Il- an average yield of 52 bus per acre.
The most dramatic change in prolinois, Missouri and Kentucky.
Ms. Barr forecast the Missouri crop at duction was forecast for Arkansas,
"Illinois, Missouri and Kentucky 30,084,000 bus, down 35% from 2004.
where a late row crop harvest and exsaw a great beginning to planting
Mr. Wagner provided soft red win- cessive precipitation in November and
season last fall," she said. "But that ter forecasts for the Southeast.
December prevented seeding of thouquickly turned to the dark side as
"I've had a chance to speak with sands of acres. The U.S.D.A. estimated
it began raining about Oct. 10 and millers, elevators and analysts about Arkansas winter wheat planted area at
wouldn't quit. While producers' plantings in the Southeast," he said. 240,000 acres, compared with 670,000
planting intentions had been good, "All scratched their heads when the acres a year earlier. Mr. Syslo projected
they were forced to modify them U.S.D.A. came out with their num- harvested area in the state at 200,000
when the rain started. As a result, Il- bers. I've heard numbers calling for acres, with an average yield of 51 bus
linois acres are down 29% from a year a reduction in plantings of 40% from per acre. Production was projected at
ago, Missouri down 33% and Ken- the previous year for portions of the 10,198,000 bus, down 69% from 2004.
tucky down 13%. Precipitation across Southeast, which admittedly seems
Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennesthe region throughout the winter has extreme. But estimates for 20% reduc- see crops also were projected to be
kept moisture levels in good shape." tions were pretty common."
much lower this year than last, also
At the same time, repeated freezing
The U.S.D.A. estimated North because of failed seedings. MBN
22 / Milling & Baking News, March 29, 2005

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Milling & Baking News - March 29, 2005

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