Milling & Baking News - October 18, 2005 - 41

I N G R E D I E N T

 Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard
red winter and dark hard wheat in
Kansas City advanced 2@16c a bu. The
2c gains applied to the lowest-protein
wheat. The rest of the basis surged
5@14c. The market needed freight. And
the country was short freight. Elevators
sought to move grain, but rail cars were
in short supply and extremely expensive to secure. Freight rates have been
historically high for several weeks.
Elevators had shied away from booking freight earlier because of high prices.
But prices have not broken. The result
was cars weren't in position to move
wheat even as mill demand became
more urgent. Wheat shippers also faced
increased competition for high-priced rail
cars from fall crops. October-November
is a period both of heavy flour mill grind
and the peak of the fall crop harvest, so
the cash wheat basis had firm support.
Farmer selling was limited. But one
merchant pointed out that producer
selling has diminished in importance
because farmers already had sold about
three-quarters of their 2005 hard winter
production. A considerable proportion
of wheat in the country was in commercial hands. Moving the wheat was a
matter of procuring rail cars.
Rail logistics were aggravated by
damage done to track and bridges nearly
two weeks ago by rain in north central
and northeastern Kansas. The rerouting
has made other routes more congested.
Harvested sorghum was being piled
on the ground in western Kansas, with
storage space lacking. Much-welcomed
rain fell across western sections of the
hard winter belt including eastern Colorado (where it snowed), the driest areas
of western Kansas and the panhandles
of Texas and Oklahoma.

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City December, cents per bu
Oct. 14 - Change from - Year
Premium Oct. 7 Sept. 30
ago
Ordinary 70 @ 80 +2 @ +2 +2 @ +2 42 @ 52
11%
73 @ 83 +5 @ +5 +5 @ +5 48 @ 58
11.2%
77 @ 87 +9 @ +9 +9 @ +9 48 @ 58
11.4%
77 @ 87 +9 @ +9 +8 @ +8 50 @ 60
11.6%
77 @ 87 +6 @ +6 +8 @ +8 55 @ 65
11.8%
84 @ 94 +13 @ +13 +15 @ +15 55 @ 65
12%
89 @ 99 +16 @ +16 +20 @ +20 55 @ 65
12.2%
89 @ 99 +16 @ +16 +20 @ +20 55 @ 65
12.4%
89 @ 99 +14 @ +14 +18 @ +18 56 @ 66
12.6%
89 @ 99 +13 @ +13 +16 @ +16 56 @ 66
12.8%
89 @ 99 +13 @ +13 +15 @ +15 56 @ 66
13%
91 @ 101 +15 @ +15 +17 @ +17 56 @ 66
13.2%
91 @ 101 +15 @ +15 +17 @ +17 56 @ 66
13.4%
91 @ 101 +15 @ +15 +17 @ +17 56 @ 66
13.6%
91 @ 101 +15 @ +15 +17 @ +17 56 @ 66
13.8%
91 @ 101 +15 @ +15 +17 @ +17 56 @ 66
14%
91 @ 101 +8 @ +8 +11 @ +11 62 @ 72

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Seeding of 2006 crop hard winter
wheat on Oct. 9 was 75% done in Kansas, 59% in Texas, 71% in Oklahoma,
92% in Nebraska and 94% in Colorado.
The corn harvest on Oct. 9 was 71%
complete in Kansas, 86% in Texas, 28%
in Nebraska and 18% in Colorado. The
soybean harvest was 43% done in Kansas and 75% in Nebraska.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard
red spring wheat at Minneapolis were
10c a bu higher to 5c lower last week.
The basis undertone remained strong.
Difficulties in procuring scarce and
high-cost freight in the midst of the fall
crop harvest seemed to limit downside
potential. An advancing hard winter
wheat basis loomed in the background.
Hard winter wheat has been substituted for hard spring wheat to varying
proportions in wheat blends at several
mills, particularly in the East.
Quality of much of the wheat offered
on the spot market remained sub-par,
falling below requirements of mills.
Wheat buyers have scoured the countryside to find the best quality, and this
was being purchased for delivery on a
to-arrive basis.
Farmer selling was limited, with
most attention concentrated on the
fall crop harvest. The soybean harvest
on Oct. 9 was 73% done in North Dakota, 59% in South Dakota and 61% in
Minnesota. The corn harvest was 6%
done in North Dakota, 21% in South

Dakota and 8% in Minnesota.
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat were unchanged. Wheat movement has slowed with the expansion of
the fall crop harvest. Mills were better
prepared for the decrease than were export elevators, which raised their bids
last week.
In Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids
held at 27@47c a bu over K.C. December. Gulf bids on soft red surged 15c
higher, to 35c over Chicago December.
St. Louis mill bids for October held at
25c over Chicago December. The Chicago mill basis was steady at 25c over
Chicago December. Mill bids in Toledo
for nearby were steady at 18c under
Chicago December; November, 5c under; and January, 8c under March. Elevator bids were 25c under December,
deferred pricing only. Cincinnati nearby mill bids were steady at 20c under
Chicago December. Elevator bids for
nearby were 60c under December; January, 33c under March. Michigan white
wheat mill bids on 1 p.p.m. vomitoxin
were 35@50c over Chicago December.
Winter wheat seeding on Oct. 9 was
29% done in Missouri, 39% in Illinois, 34%
in Indiana, 48% in Ohio and 71% in Michigan. The corn harvest was 77% done in
Missouri, 58% in Illinois, 31% in Indiana,
14% in Ohio and 26% in Michigan. The
soybean harvest was 30% done in Missouri, 63% in Illinois, 52% in Indiana, 54%
in Ohio and 67% in Michigan. MBN

No. 1 hard spring

Cash wheat

Milling quality, basis Minneapolis December, cents per bu
Oct. 14
- Change from -
Year
Premium
Oct. 7
Sept. 30
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
...
...
...
...
13%
95
-
...
50@ 85
13.5%
105
+5
...
...
14%
120 @ 125 +5 @ 0
-5 @ -5
90@ 100
14.5%
...
...
...
135@ 185
15%
150
+10 @ -5 +10 @ +5 195@ 215
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
Oct. 14
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 11%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
October
+98 Dec.
...
November
+96 Dec.
...
December
+92 Dec.
...
January
+83 March
...
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
October
+35 Dec.
43
November
+44 Dec.
50
December
+44 Dec.
50
January
+34 March
41

W E E K

Year ago
bid

+75
+75
+74
+64

Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
March

+85
+70
+65
+50

Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
March

Oct. 14 - Change from - Year
For shipment
Bid
Oct. 7 Sept. 30 ago
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
Nearby
3.64
+.02
+.02
3.96
October
3.64
+.02
+.02
...
November
3.64
+.01
+.02
...
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
Nearby
0.80
-
-
0.95
October
0.80
-
-
...
November
0.80
-
-
...
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
Nearby
1.35
-.05
-.05
1.23
October
1.35
-.05
-.05
...
November
1.35
-.05
-.05
...

Canadian domestic milling wheat
In-store, Thunder Bay,
Canadian $ per tonne
Western red spring 13.5%
Soft white spring
Amber durum
U.S. $ per bu
Western red spring 13.5%
Soft white spring
Amber durum

Oct. 14
225.33
180.79
211.28

Oct. 7
+5.61
+2.08
+1.92

Year
ago
213.78
202.40
253.00

5.17
4.15
4.85

0.08
0.01
-

...
...
...

Milling & Baking News, October 18, 2005 / 41
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Milling & Baking News - October 18, 2005

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