Milling & Baking News - November 29, 2005 - 33

I N G R E D I E N T

 Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard
red winter and dark hard wheat in Kansas City dropped 2@16c a bu last week.
The 16c decline applied only to wheat
with 14% protein. Losses across the bottom third of the protein scale were 2c,
while 5c setbacks prevailed from 11.8%
protein through 13.8% protein. The
weaker cash market contrasted with a
firmer tone noted through most of the
previous week.
The softer tone to the cash hard winter market had emerged the previous
Friday and confirmed in adjustments
made last Monday. No further changes
were registered in the basis before the
Thanksgiving break, with the exception
of a 4c decline at 14% protein. The basis
held unchanged on Friday.
Some mills were less active in the spot
market given holiday-related downtime.
At the same time, offers increased before
the Thanksgiving break. The increase
had been forecast a couple of weeks ago,
when rail car values began to decline.
This emboldened elevators that had
refrained from aggressive marketing of
wheat to begin ordering cars.
There hasn't been much additional
business in the market for to-arrive
wheat. At the same time, the expansion
in flour booking for the first quarter
of 2006 could prompt increased wheat
buying.
Farmer selling of wheat was nearly
absent. But producers already had sold
about 80% of their 2005 production, and
most wheat was in commercial hands.
Farmer selling traditionally expands
around the turn of the year, as producers opt to take some additional income
before the end of the current year or resume sales at the beginning of the next.
But because farmers' wheat ownership

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City December, cents per bu
Nov. 25 - Change from - Year
Premium Nov. 18 Nov. 11
ago
Ordinary 75 @ 85 -2 @ -2 +3 @ +3 57 @ 67
11%
75 @ 85 -2 @ -2
-
70 @ 80
11.2%
75 @ 85 -2 @ -2 -1 @ -1 72 @ 82
11.4%
75 @ 85 -2 @ -2 -2 @ -2 78 @ 88
11.6%
83 @ 93 -2 @ -2 +3 @ +3 88 @ 98
11.8%
85 @ 95 -5 @ -5 -1 @ -1 88 @ 98
12%
85 @ 95 -5 @ -5 -2 @ -2 88 @ 98
12.2%
85 @ 95 -5 @ -5 -2 @ -2 88 @ 98
12.4%
85 @ 95 -5 @ -5 -2 @ -2 88 @ 98
12.6%
85 @ 95 -5 @ -5 -2 @ -2 88 @ 98
12.8%
85 @ 95 -5 @ -5 -2 @ -2 88 @ 98
13%
86 @ 96 -5 @ -5 -5 @ -5 88 @ 98
13.2%
86 @ 96 -5 @ -5 -5 @ -5 88 @ 98
13.4%
86 @ 96 -5 @ -5 -5 @ -5 88 @ 98
13.6%
86 @ 96 -5 @ -5 -5 @ -5 90 @ 100
13.8%
86 @ 96 -5 @ -5 -5 @ -5 90 @ 100
14%
92 @ 102 -16 @ -16 -6 @ -6 93 @ 103

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was limited, no significant rush in sales
was expected. Producers will look to the
condition of their new crop in the fields
as well as to tax considerations and flat
price for prompts to sell.
Winter wheat condition declined
across the Southwest in the week ended
Nov. 20. Wheat rated good to excellent
was 65% in Kansas (68% the previous
week), 27% in Texas (28%), 46% in Oklahoma (50%), 64% in Nebraska (67%) and
82% in Colorado (82%).
The corn and soybean harvests were
nearly complete across the Southwest.
The sorghum harvest on Nov. 20 was
97% complete in Kansas, 86% in Texas,
81% in Oklahoma, 100% in Nebraska
and 99% in Colorado.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red
spring wheat at Minneapolis were 5c a
bu higher to 15c lower last week. Price
swings in the cash market, particularly in
the case of 14% protein wheat, continued
early last week. But the overall market
tone was thought to be weaker, with mill
demand diminishing just ahead of the
Thanksgiving break. A milling quality
train and a number of single cars went
without bids on Wednesday and were
carried over the holiday.
Export elevators at Duluth-Superior
weren't active bidders on wheat. In fact,
one elevator sold a train. The Great
Lakes shipping season was expected to
end after the second week in December.
Farmer selling of hard spring wheat

was light, with declining wheat futures
prices discouraging. An expansion in
producer wheat selling was expected
to develop around the turn of the year,
when tax considerations come into play.
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat were mixed. Some mills raised
bids in hopes of attracting wheat offers now that the fall crop harvest was
virtually complete. Bids in Kansas City,
though, slipped from levels that had
been artificially high during an extended
period of no trades.
In Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids declined 2c, to 26@46c a bu over K.C. December. Gulf bids on soft red advanced 2c, to
57c over Chicago December. St. Louis
mill bids for October held at 50c over Chicago December. Chicago mill basis was
steady at 30c over Chicago December.
Mill bids in Toledo for nearby advanced
3c, to 12c under Chicago December.; December, 9c under. Elevator bids were 28c
under December, deferred pricing only,
with no wheat accepted before January.
Cincinnati nearby mill bids held at 10c
under Chicago December. Elevator bids
for nearby were at 2c under December,
deferred pricing only. Michigan white
wheat mill bids on 1 p.p.m. vomitoxin
were 50c over Chicago December.
Wheat rated good to excellent on Nov.
20 was 41% in Missouri (41% the previous week), 81% in Illinois (81%), 82% in
Indiana (79%), 79% in Ohio (82%) and
67% in Michigan (65%). MBN

No. 1 hard spring

Cash wheat

Milling quality, basis Minneapolis December, cents per bu
Nov. 25
- Change from -
Year
Premium Nov. 18
Nov. 11
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
90
...
...
...
13%
120
...
...
60 @ 62
13.5%
125
...
...
...
14%
125 @ 140 -15 @ -10 -10 @ -15 140 @ 150
14.5%
...
...
...
165
15%
190
+5 @ -15 +30 @ +10 210 @ 225
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
Nov. 25
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 11%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
November
+95 Dec.
...
December
+95 Dec.
...
January
+91 March
...
February
+90 March
...
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
November
+57 Dec.
60
December
+57 Dec.
60
January
+39 March
42
February
+41 March
44

W E E K

Year ago
bid

+90
+89
+87
+82

Dec.
Dec.
March
March

+80
+80
+65
+66

Dec.
Dec.
March
March

Nov. 25 - Change from - Year
For shipment
Bid
Nov. 18 Nov. 11
ago
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
Nearby
3.41
-.03
-.06
3.91
November
3.41
-.03
-.06
...
December
3.41
-.03
-.06
...
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
Nearby
0.88
-.02
-.02
0.93
November
0.88
-.02
-.02
...
December
0.88
-.02
-.02
...
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
Nearby
1.48
-.02
-.02
1.50
November
1.48
-.02
-.02
...
December
1.48
-.02
-.02
...

Canadian domestic milling wheat
In-store, Thunder Bay,
Nov. 25
Canadian $ per tonne
Western red spring 13.5% 221.46
Soft white spring
169.27
Amber durum
208.36
U.S. $ per bu
Western red spring 13.5%
5.16
Soft white spring
3.94
Amber durum
4.85

Nov. 18
-8.03
-5.66
-3.74
-0.09
-0.06
-

Year
ago
210.15
189.92
224.96
...
...
...

Milling & Baking News, November 29, 2005 / 33
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Milling & Baking News - November 29, 2005

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