Milling & Baking News - May 23, 2006 - 19

D A T A

these records and the current quarter, at
86.5%, was only the 85th-fastest (37th
slowest). Most of the other slow quarters in the database were from the 1970s
and a few from the 1980s.
Historically, rate of grind was even
slower in the 1950s and 1960s before
the start of the database. But during the
decades after World War II, the Census
Bureau and the industry used a five-day
week to calculate rate of grind.

Grind down 0.1%
Wheat grind in January-March totaled 212,644,000 bus, virtually unchanged (down 0.1%) from 212,767,000

in the same quarter of 2005. It compared
with 214,662,000 in 2004, 215,812,000 in
2003, 217,020,000 in 2002, 223,787,000 in
2001 and 225,637,000 in 2000. The record
wheat grind for a quarter occurred in
October-December 2000 at 247,738,000
bus, followed by July-September 2000
at 244,685,000, October-December 1999
at 242,175,000, October-December 2001
at 238,693,000 and October-December
1998 at 238,580,000.
Wheat grind in the first quarter of
2006 fell 4.4% from 222,410,000 bus in
October-December.
Flour extraction rate in JanuaryMarch, as calculated by Milling & Bak-

ing News, was 75.4%, up from 75.3% in
October-December and 75% in JanuaryMarch 2005. It was the highest extraction rate since April-June 1999 when it
was 75.6%. The recent peak was 76.8%
in July-September 1996.
Millfeed production in JanuaryMarch amounted to 1,649,646 tons, up
0.9% from 1,634,516 in the first quarter of 2005. It was down 4.9% from
October-December at 1,734,606 tons.
Millfeed output hit a record in October-December 2000 at 1,947,407 tons,
followed by July-September 2000 at
1,902,206 and October-December 2001
at 1,891,525. MBN

Trade takes wait-and-see attitude toward
large drop in expected durum seedings
KANSAS CITY - A projected decrease of
more than 30% in combined seeded area
for durum in the U.S. and Canada was met
with a "wait-and-see" attitude by much of
the trade, even as prices moved higher in
both countries.
The combined total U.S. and Canadian
intended durum area of 5,875,000 acres
is down 2,670,000 acres, or 31%, from
8,545,000 acres in 2005. The decrease, if realized, would be about equivalent to last
year's entire U.S. durum crop.
Canadian farmers intend to plant
4,050,000 acres of durum in 2006, down
30% from 5,785,000 seeded acres in 2005
as well as from the 10-year average of
5.8 million acres, Statistics Canada said
in its April 25 seeding intentions report,
based on surveys of 17,100 farmers in late
March. It would be the smallest planted
area since 1993. Area in top-producing
Saskatchewan, at 3,400,000 acres, was
down 31% from 2005.
About a month earlier the U.S. Department of Agriculture in its March 31 Prospective Plantings report said U.S. farmers
intend to plant 1,825,000 acres to durum
in 2006, down 34% from 2,760,000 acres
in 2005 and down 44% from the 10-year
average of 3,277,600 acres. If realized, it
would be the smallest durum planted area
since 1961. Indicated area in top producing North Dakota, at 1,200,000 acres, was
down 39% from 2005.
Market reaction to the large potential
decrease in North American durum was
generally mild. Most significant in limiting reaction was large stocks of durum,
trade sources said.
"It wasn't unexpected," one U.S. durum miller said, "since durum prices have
been low compared with other types of
wheat, and there still are huge stocks of
last year's crop available."
While the large stocks certainly act as a
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

buffer, some in the trade believe pasta makers with relatively short-term coverage are
at risk should a major weather event, such
as drought, develop this summer.
However, at this time soil moisture
conditions and spring and summer forecasts for the Canadian durum belt are
favorable, said Bruce Burnett, director of
weather and crop surveillance at the Canadian Wheat Board. In U.S. durum areas,
moisture has been excessive so far.
If the weather is "fine," carryover will
be sufficient to meet demand, the U.S. durum miller said.
Planting of the U.S. durum crop had
been delayed by recent wet weather in the
Northern Plains. As of May 14, only 48%
of the crop was planted in North Dakota,
compared with 60% a year ago and 37%
as the most recent five-year average, the
North Dakota Wheat Commission said. Mr.
Burnett said durum seeding in Canada was
slightly ahead of normal, and that farmers
like to have the crop planted by the third
week of May. As of May 14, durum planting was 43% done in Saskatchewan
U.S. and Canadian market participants
attribute most of the decline to low cash durum prices relative to other grains, especially
spring wheat, and oilseeds. Durum exports
in 2005-06, although small relative to overall
wheat exports, have been strong compared
with a year ago in both countries.
"The Canadian situation is largely price
driven," Mr. Burnett said. "It's strictly the
market."
He noted that farmers looked to spring
wheat when durum prices dropped below
spring wheat prices.
At its early February low of $4.60 a bu,
choice milling No. 1 hard amber durum in
Minneapolis was 24@40c a bu under 14%
protein hard red spring wheat. Canadian
durum, at the time, was $4.80 a bu, instore, Thunder Bay, compared with 13.5%

western red spring at $5.10 a bu.
Cash durum prices in the U.S. and Canada have edged higher the past few weeks,
mostly since the U.S. and Canadian planting intention reports were released. Durum
was $4.85 per bu in Minneapolis as of May
12, up 10c from $4.75 prior to the Canadian
report and up 25c from the 3½-year low in
February. Prior to that, prices had declined
slowly but steadily from $5.25 in February
2005. Until the recent gains, prices had been
remarkably steady since August 2005.
The price of milling durum in Canada
jumped 15c, to $5 a bu, the last week of
April. Prices had dipped to a recent low of
$4.75 a bu in February.
U.S. semolina prices, obviously, have
moved in tandem with durum prices.
Because of the large durum stocks and
ideas there was little upward price risk,
most pasta makers have semolina needs
fully covered only through June, but only
40% to 50% through September, U.S. durum millers said.
One miller said the market would take a
"wait-and-see" attitude until the seed was
actually "in the ground" and the crop was
growing. There still was the possibility
that Canadian farmers could plant more
durum in areas designated as summer fallow, Mr. Burnett said, but it likely would
not be a significant increase. Summer fallow area was up 15% from a year ago and
may be quickly planted.
"Many farmers were not sure what they
were going to plant," Statistics Canada
said. The report showed farmers "have
tough decisions to make in 2006 in attempts to determine where their best returns can be found, while they deal with
rising costs and maintain cash flow."
Canadian farmers said they intend to
plant 11% more spring wheat this year than
in 2005. U.S. farmers, meanwhile, indicated
they would plant 1% less spring wheat than
a year ago. Indicated spring wheat area in
top producing North Dakota was down 4%
from a year ago, while soybean area was up
41% and corn area was up 17%. MBN
Milling & Baking News, May 23, 2006 / 19

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - May 23, 2006

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - May 23, 2006