Milling & Baking News - January 29, 2008 - 38

Ingredient Week

 Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard
red winter wheat in Kansas City were
unchanged to 29c a bu higher last week.
The basis was unchanged only with regard to low-protein wheat. The basis
on high-protein wheat was 29@34c a
bu. Middle-protein wheat registered
gains of 2c to 9c a bu. Mill demand was
broad based and increasingly urgent
in certain markets, particularly on the
West coast. Wheat traded to those locations at increasingly wide premiums
to the Kansas City market. Demand in
Kansas City was not so urgent, but local mills were forced to raise bids to
remain competitive.
Demand for high-protein hard winter wheat was especially acute because of the high rates of substitution
of winter wheat for spring wheat. The
spread between Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat futures continued to
widen, reflecting concerns about excruciatingly tight spring wheat stocks
for the remaining months of the marketing year. The price of 13% protein
hard red winter wheat in Kansas City
on Thursday was $10.95 a bu compared with spring wheat of the same
protein level in Minneapolis at $13.05,
for a spread of $2.10. A week earlier,
the spread in pricing was $1.29 a bu.
Exporter bids on 11.5% protein hard
winter resurfaced after an extended
hiatus, raising ideas of new export
business.
Farmer selling of old crop wheat remained light, which was to be expected
given producers already sold about 95%
of their 2007 production.
Bitterly cold temperatures prevailed
across the hard winter belt, though a
warm-up was forecast. Snow cover
protected the crop in northern Kansas
(except for parts of the northwest) and

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City March, cents per bu
Jan. 25 - Change from -
Premium Jan. 18 Jan. 11
Ordinary 18@ 33
-
+13 @ +13
11%
25@ 40
-
+10 @ +10
11.2% 32@ 47
-
+8 @ +8
11.4% 55@ 70 +5 @ +5 +16 @ +16
11.6% 65@ 80 +8 @ +8 +20 @ +20
11.8% 70@ 85 +3 @ +3 +15 @ +15
12%
80@ 95 +2 @ +2 +21 @ +21
12.2% 87@ 102 +5 @ +5 +24 @ +24
12.4% 93@ 108 +9 @ +9 +28 @ +28
12.6% 96@ 111 +7 @ +7 +28 @ +28
12.8% 104@ 119 +2 @ +2 +28 @ +28
13%
145@ 160 +29 @ +29 +55 @ +55
13.2% 150@ 165 +29 @ +29 +55 @ +55
13.4% 165@ 180 +29 @ +29 +55 @ +55
13.6% 170@ 185 +29 @ +29 +55 @ +55
13.8% 180@ 195 +29 @ +29 +55 @ +55
14%
190@ 205 +34 @ +34 +60 @ +60
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Year
ago
35 @ 50
45 @ 60
45 @ 60
45 @ 60
45 @ 60
45 @ 60
45 @ 60
45 @ 60
45 @ 60
47 @ 62
47 @ 62
40 @ 55
40 @ 55
40 @ 55
30 @ 45
30 @ 45
30 @ 45

Nebraska. But southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas had no snow cover. A
meteorologist addressing members of
the Kansas City Board of Trade forecast
an excellent chance of wintry precipitation toward the end of this week, with
western areas of the belt expected to receive a share. An active weather pattern
was expected to dominate February,
with several additional opportunities
for moisture.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's
Texas field office pegged the state's
wheat condition on Jan. 20 at 9% good,
29% fair, 32% poor and 30% very poor, a
minor decline from the previous week.
The National Agricultural Statistics
Service in its weekly weather and crop
bulletin indicated the coldest air of the
season plunged into the hard red winter
wheat region during the week ended Jan.
19. "Much of the hard red winter wheat
crop from Kansas northward remained
under a protective blanket of snow, although coverage was patchy and shallow in some areas," the NASS said.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard
red spring wheat in Minneapolis were
5@15c a bu higher last week. The May
became the basic future at an 85c discount to the March. Mill demand was
steady. At least one exporter bid on spot
rail supply, as elevators in Duluth faced
the need to replenish stocks before the
beginning of the 2008 Great Lakes shipping season. Spot wheat offers were
fewer than during the previous week.

Strength in both Minneapolis futures
and cash wheat premiums reflected concern over tightness in supply during the
next several months before new crop.
Farmer selling was limited, with producers having sold heavily at harvest
and retaining little ownership.
Frigid temperatures prevailed across
the northern Plains. Producers in parts
of South Dakota expressed concern over
the dearth of winter precipitation.
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat were unchanged to 15c a bu higher last week. In Kansas City, No. 1 soft
red bids held at 5@40c over K.C. March.
Gulf bids on soft red surged 20c, to 20c
over Chicago March. St. Louis mill bids
were 10c over the Chicago March price
for 2 p.p.m. or less vomitoxin. Chicago
mill bids were unchanged at 15c over
Chicago March. Mill bids in Toledo
held at Chicago March price; new crop,
75c under July. Elevator bids were 17c
under March; new crop, 78c under July.
Cincinnati mill bids rose 15c a bu, to
Chicago March price. Elevator bids
were 70c under March, deferred pricing
only; new crop, 115c under July. Michigan white wheat mill bids were Chicago
March price to 10c over; new crop, 35c
to 15c under July.
NASS in its weekly weather bulletin
indicated during the week ended Jan.
19 "a portion of the Ohio Valley's soft
red winter wheat crop was briefly exposed to temperatures near 0 degrees F.
without benefit of snow cover." MBN

No. 1 hard spring

Cash wheat

Milling quality, basis Minneapolis March, cents per bu
Jan. 25
- Change from -
Year
Premium Jan. 18
Jan. 11
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
...
...
...
...
13%
165
...
...
35 @ 40
13.5%
...
...
...
...
14%
180 @ 195 +15 @ +5
0 @ +10 35 @ 40
14.5%
...
...
...
...
15%
215
+15
+20 @ -5 45 @ 50
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
Jan. 25
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
January
...
February
+65 March
...
March
+75 March
...
April
+85 May
...
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
January
+20 March
40
February
+40 March
55
March
+55 March
65
April
+40 May
65

Year ago
bid

...
...
+72 March
+68 May

+14
+16
+22
+15

March
March
March
May

Jan. 25 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid
Jan. 18 Jan. 11
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
Nearby
15.55
+.40
+1.55
January
15.55
+.40
+1.55
February
15.55
+.30
+1.17
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
Nearby
1.00
-.10
-.10
January
1.00
-.10
-.10
February
1.10
-
-
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
Nearby
2.00
-
+.65
January
2.00
-
+.65
February
2.05
-
+.65

Year
ago
5.07
5.07
5.10
0.75
0.75
0.75

0.81
0.81
0.82

Canadian domestic milling wheat
Change
Year
In-store, Thunder Bay,
Jan. 25 from Jan. 18 ago
Canadian $ per tonne
Western red spring 13.5% 508.19 +12.74
235.61
Soft white spring
596.02
-9.22
234.09
Amber durum
817.45 -20.43
275.27
U.S. $ per bu
Western red spring 13.5% 13.77
0.67
5.44
Soft white spring
16.15
0.15
5.40
Amber durum
22.15
-
6.35
Milling & Baking News

January 29, 2008 / 39
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - January 29, 2008

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