Milling & Baking News - February 12, 2008 - 38

Ingredient Week

 Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red
winter wheat in Kansas City skyrocketed an astounding 25@330c a bu last
week. Even ordinary wheat, outlets for
which were narrow, could not escape the
week's stupendous surge. High-protein
wheat soared a stunning 190@330c a bu,
easily setting new record-high levels. Demand was broad based. Mills pressed for
supply out of concern price would only
be higher should they wait even an extra
day. Wheat futures prices locking limit
up day after day made buying wheat to
arrive nearly impossible, reinforcing the
conviction near-term pipelines had to be
maintained no matter the cost.
The market increasingly was concerned the supply of high-protein wheat
would be exhausted before the end of
the marketing year. Amid all the market
drama, hard red winter wheat was priced
at widening discounts to spring wheat of
the same protein. The cash price of 14%
hard red winter wheat in Kansas City on
Friday was $17.50 compared with 14%
hard red spring wheat in Minneapolis at
$18.60, for a spread of $1.10. A week earlier, 14%-protein hard red winter wheat
traded at a $2.50 discount to hard red
spring wheat. But the spread still argued
for continued heavy substitution of highprotein hard red winter wheat for spring
wheat at mills across the country. Millers and bakers worked together to find
means of incorporating more flour milled
from hard red winter wheat in blends
or in instances switching blends to flour
milled only from hard winter wheat. The
substitution taxed high-protein hard winter wheat forcing the basis higher.
Export bids on hard red winter wheat
were withdrawn and offers moved much
higher as the Gulf sought to adjust to the
rally in the domestic market.
Kansas Agricultural Statistics rated

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City March, cents per bu
Feb. 8 - Change from - Year
Premium Feb. 1
Jan. 25
ago
Ordinary 48@ 63 +25 @ +25 +30 @ +30 35 @ 50
11%
57@ 72 +28 @ +28 +32 @ +32 45 @ 60
11.2% 69@ 84 +31 @ +31 +37 @ +37 45 @ 60
11.4% 130@ 145 +65 @ +65 +75 @ +75 45 @ 60
11.6% 155@ 170 +68 @ +68 +90 @ +90 45 @ 60
11.8% 200@ 215 +90 @ +90 +130 @ +130 45 @ 60
12% 225@ 240 +100 @ +100 +145 @ +145 45 @ 60
12.2% 235@ 250 +98 @ +98 +148 @ +148 45 @ 60
12.4% 250@ 265 +107 @ +107 +157 @ +157 45 @ 60
12.6% 275@ 290 +119 @ +119 +179 @ +179 47 @ 62
12.8% 315@ 330 +151 @ +151 +211 @ +211 47 @ 62
13% 395@ 410 +190 @ +190 +250 @ +250 47 @ 62
13.2% 420@ 435 +210 @ +210 +270 @ +270 45 @ 60
13.4% 445@ 460 +220 @ +220 +280 @ +280 45 @ 60
13.6% 470@ 485 +240 @ +240 +300 @ +300 45 @ 60
13.8% 495@ 510 +255 @ +255 +315 @ +315 42 @ 57
14% 595@ 610 +330 @ +330 +405 @ +405 40 @ 55
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Kansas wheat at the end of January at 6%
excellent, 36% good, 33% fair, 19% poor
and 6% very poor. A month earlier, 47%
of state's wheat was rated good to excellent. K.A.S. indicated 2% of Kansas wheat
fields exhibited moderate winterkill, 15%
light winterkill and 83% none. Nebraska
wheat was rated 4% excellent, 54% good,
35% fair and 6% poor, a minor decline
from a month earlier but improved from
the end of January 2007, when 54% of crop
was rated good to excellent. Oklahoma
wheat was rated 3% excellent, 29% good,
39% fair, 18% poor and 11% very poor,
nearly unchanged from a month ago, Dry
conditions and high winds adversely affected the crop in many parts of the state.
Texas wheat was rated 1% excellent, 9%
good, 29% fair, 33% poor and 28% very
poor, also a minor decline from the end
of December.
Wintry precipitation swept across wide
swathes of the hard winter wheat belt last
week, including much of Kansas and Nebraska. Texas and Oklahoma were badly
in need of additional moisture.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard
red spring wheat in Minneapolis hurtled 180@325c a bu higher last week.
The basis on 14%-protein hard spring
wheat was at a record-high level. The
basis on 15%-protein wheat on Friday
set a new record.
The market was concerned the supply
of hard red spring wheat, at least with
requisite baking qualities, would be depleted before the end of the marketing

year. The U.S.D.A. on Feb. 8 forecast the
2008 hard red spring wheat carryover
at 73 million bus, which was the lowest
since 1946. Minneapolis wheat futures
locking limit up each day last week focused wheat buyers' attention on keeping pipelines filled to the extent possible
even as offers were limited.
Farmer selling of old crop wheat was
light. It was estimated producers already
sold between 85% and 95% of their 2007
crop, leaving little left in farm bins to
pressure the market. Those looking to
Canada for relief were disappointed
with Dec. 31 wheat stocks in that country
below expectations.
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat were firm with the soft red market exhibiting little of the frenzy seen in
the hard wheat markets. In Kansas City,
No. 1 soft red bids held at 5@40c over
K.C. March. Gulf bids on soft red were
withdrawn, February was offered at 50c
over Chicago March. St. Louis mill bids
were 10c over the Chicago March price
for 2 p.p.m. or less vomitoxin. Chicago
mill bids were unchanged at 15c over
Chicago March. Mill bids in Toledo rose
5c, to 10c over Chicago March; new crop,
90c under July. Elevator bids were 13c
under March; new crop, 88c under July.
Cincinnati mill bids rose 10c, to 20c over
Chicago March. Elevator bids were 22c
under March; new crop, 108c under July.
Michigan white wheat mill bids were
Chicago March price to 10c over; new
crop, 35c under July to 15c under. MBN

No. 1 hard spring

Cash wheat

Milling quality, basis Minneapolis May, cents per bu
Feb. 8
- Change from -
Year
Premium
Feb. 1
Jan. 25
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
...
...
...
...
13%
...
...
...
50
13.5%
...
...
...
...
14%
425 @ 435 +180 @ +190 +245 @ +240 50
14.5%
...
...
...
...
15%
625
+325 @ +320
+410 45 @ 50
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
Feb. 8
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
February
...
March
... March 125
April
...
May
...
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
February
... March
50
March
... March
60
April
... May
60
May
...

Year ago
bid

+70
+74
+70
+68

March
March
May
May

+15
+18
+10
+5

March
March
May
May

Feb. 8 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid
Feb. 1
Jan. 25
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
Nearby
...
...
...
February
...
...
...
March
13.00
+.50
-2.65
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
Nearby
1.40
+.20
+.40
February
1.40
+.20
+.30
March
1.50
+.20
+.27
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
Nearby
4.00
+1.80
+2.00
February
4.00
+1.80
+1.95
March
4.05
+1.50
+1.95

Year
ago
...
...
5.20
0.75
0.75
0.78

0.96
0.96
0.99

Canadian domestic milling wheat
In-store, Thunder Bay,
Canadian $ per tonne
Western red spring 13.5%
Soft white spring
Amber durum
U.S. $ per bu
Western red spring 13.5%
Soft white spring
Amber durum

Change
Year
Feb. 8 from Feb. 1 ago
688.23 +129.35
235.72
587.37 +10.13
233.78
917.77 +95.75
273.90
18.76
16.00
25.05

Milling & Baking News

3.46
0.20
2.55

5.47
5.42
6.35

February 12, 2008 / 39
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - February 12, 2008

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