Milling & Baking News - May 20, 2008 - 17

Data

Revised 2007 output rises to 419
million cwts, near all-time peak
WASHINGTON - The annual summary of U.S. flour production in
2007, just issued by the Bureau of
the Census in the U.S. Department
of Commerce, increased output for
2007 by 1,262,000 cwts to 418,836,000
cwts, which was less than 1% below
the all-time record in 2000. The output total for 2006 also was revised
upward significantly, by 3,531,000
cwts to 403,391,000.
The revisions rank 2007 as the
sixth year in which production by
U.S. mills exceeded 400 million
cwts. The final summary also presents an upward adjustment from the
revised preliminary estimate of mill

followed an increase of 1,515,000 in
2003. Sharp output decreases were
posted in 2002 and 2001. Those two
straight years of output reductions
were themselves unusual, being
among the sharpest decreases in
more than 50 years. Output in 2004
was the smallest since 1995, when
mills produced 388,689,000 cwts.
Prior to 2002, output had exceeded
400 million cwts on four occasions,
initially reaching that level in 1997.
Three successive years - 1999
through 2001 - also exceeded 400
million cwts.
Daily capacity of U.S. mills in the
Flour Milling Products Summary

U.S. flour production year-to-year change
15.4
8.4

-2.3

-16.8

-9.8

1.1

1.5

9.3

13.1
6.3
-5.2

-3.8

5.1

9.1

16.6
8.5

8.0

11.5

(million cwts)

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce

output based on quarterly reports
issued by the Census Bureau.
The annual summary production
total in 2007, at 418,836,000 cwts,
represented a gain of 15,445,000, or
3.8%, from the revised 403,391,000
in 2006. It also was up 23,863,000,
or 6%, from 394,973,000 in 2005 and
was 24,911,000 cwts, or 6.3%, above
the recent low output of 393,925,000
in 2004. It was only 2,434,000 cwts,
or 0.6%, below the record wheat
flour output of 421,270,000 cwts in
2000.
Annual 2007 flour output originally was estimated in February at
417,574,000, up 17,714,000, or 4.4%,
from the prior year.
The 15,445,000-cwt increase in
2007 over 2006 followed the gain
of 8,418,000, or 2.1%, in 2006 and
1,048,000, or 0.3%, in 2005. This
marked the first time since 1992 of
three consecutive yearly increases.
This stretch followed a decrease of
2,290,000, or 0.6%, in 2004, which
18 / May 20, 2008

Milling & Baking News

for 2007 shows increases over the
preliminary total and the preceding
year. The fourth-quarter benchmark
capacity number was 1,534,657 cwts,
up 28,641, or 1.9%, from a year earlier. The national average mill operating rate in 2007 was 88.9% of sixday capacity, up from the preliminary 88.8% and also a gain over the
revised 87.5% in 2006, which was
87.6% before the current summary's
revision of the data from last year 's
summary. It was 86.2% in 2005 and
86% in 2004. The recent peak annual
operating rate was 89.6% in 2000.
Wheat grind in 2007 was up 3.3%
from 2006 and millfeed production
increased 2.7%, compared with the
flour gain of 3.8%.
The North American Millers' Association provides funding to the Census Bureau in support of the compilation of these flour milling data.
Production revised upward
The 2007 summary shows U.S.

flour production up 1,262,000 cwts,
or 0.3%, from the preliminary total
of 417,574,000, the latter computed
from quarterly output reports. The
2006 summary last year showed
U.S. flour production up 2.5 million
cwts, or 0.6%, from the preliminary
total of 397,360,000, but 2006 flour
output in the current summary is
further revised upward by 3,531,000,
or 0.9%, for an aggregate change of
about 6 million, or 1.5%, from the
preliminary quarterly flour reports
of that year. The 2005 summary revealed output up 1,034,000 cwts,
or 0.3%, from the preliminary total
of 393,939,000. The 2004 final summary presented a gain of 4,060,000,
or 1%, while the 2003 final showed
output down 3,099,000, or 0.8%,
from the preliminary. The 2002 summary output included a reduction of
6,018,000 cwts, or 1.5%.
Data for 2007 showed changes
to the final output in all states and
state-groups with the exception of
the combined Illinois, Indiana and
Wisconsin, as well as Ohio.
The largest, and in fact the only,
significantly sizable output revision
in the 2007 summary occurred in
the state-group Tennessee and Kentucky, which was raised 1,605,000
cwts from the preliminary. Georgia, Florida and South Carolina was
up 158,000; North Carolina was up
83,000; Virginia and Maryland was
up 80,000; Washington and Oregon
was up 63,000; and Alabama and
Louisiana was up 52,000. Leading
the decreases was Pennsylvania,
down 523,000 cwts; Texas, 318,000;
Kansas, 111,000; Missouri, 95,000;
Utah, 77,000; North Dakota, 30,000;
Minnesota, 22,000; Montana and
Idaho, 18,000; Oklahoma and Colorado, 7,000; and Michigan, 4,000.
The "all other" states category,
where flour production data for
selected states are not disclosed,
showed an increase of 71,000 cwts
from the preliminary number. This
grouping comprises Arizona, Hawaii, Maine and Massachusetts.
As already noted, 2006 flour also
was revised upward, to 403,391,000
cwts, a gain of 3,531,000 from
399,860,000 in the summary issued
a year ago. The only indicated state
to show a change from the 2006
summary was Missouri, placed
at 24,646,000 cwts, up 3,524,000
from 21,122,000 in the prior summary. Other minor changes were
in states for which data were
not shown to avoid supplying
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - May 20, 2008

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - May 20, 2008