Milling & Baking News - July 1, 2008 - 31

Ingredient Market Trends
Weekly Spotlight

Climate change seen requiring historic effort
to advance farm science, management

T
Indexes
Saltine Cracker Ingredients

Bagel Ingredients

Price Indicators
2
3
THIS LAST WEEKS WEEKS
WEEK WEEK AGO AGO
Pan-bread flour
Wheat futures,
K.C., Sept.

Hard winter
premiums,
12.2% protein

Millfeed, K.C.,
30-day

Soybean oil
Cane sugar
Cocoa
/ world-grain.com
31 /bakingbusiness.com
July 3, 2007
Milling
& Baking News

he U.S. Climate Change Science
Program on May 27 released a
watershed report, "Synthesis and
Assessment Product 4.3: The Effects of
Climate Change on Agriculture, Land
Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States." The
report presented the current best estimate of the likely effects of climate
change on U.S. agriculture during the
next 25 to 50 years. While report authors were encouraged not to opine
about what policies should be developed to guide the nation through the
changes it sees likely, it was clear the
changes in prospect will require full
utilization of talents
of producers and
crop and food scientists, government
and the private sector to sustain and
expand food production.
The C.C.S.P. integrates the federal
research efforts of 13
agencies on global
climate change. The
U.S. Department of Agriculture was the
lead agency for the current report, which
was written by 38 selected individuals
from universities, national laboratories,
nongovernmental organizations and
federal service.
"The report issued today provides
practical information that will help land
owners and resource managers make
better decisions to address the risks
of climate change," said Joe Glauber,
U.S.D.A.'s chief economist.
The section on agriculture in the executive summary of the 220-page report
included the following findings that
should stimulate research and development efforts:
With increased carbon dioxide and
temperature, the lifecycle of grain and
oilseed crops will likely progress more
rapidly. But, as temperature rises, these
crops increasingly will experience failure, especially if climate variability increases and precipitation lessens or becomes more variable.
The marketable yield of many horti-

cultural crops, such as tomatoes, onions
and fruit, is very likely to be more sensitive to climate change than grain and
oilseed crops.
Climate change is likely to lead to
a northern migration of weeds. Many
weeds respond more positively to increasing carbon dioxide than cash crops,
particularly C3 'invasive' weeds. Also,
recent research suggests glyphosate,
the most widely used herbicide in the
U.S., loses it efficacy on weeds grown
at increased carbon dioxide levels likely
in the coming decades.
Disease pressure on crops and domestic animals will likely increase with earlier springs and warmer
winters, which will allow proliferation and
higher survival rates
of pathogens and parasites. Regional variation in warming and
changes in rainfall
also will affect spatial
and temporal distribution of disease.
Projected increases
in temperature and a
lengthening of the growing season will
likely extend forage production into late
fall and early spring, thereby decreasing the need for winter forage reserves.
However, these benefits will very likely
be affected by regional variations in water availability.
Climate change-induced shifts in
plant species are already under way in
rangelands. Establishment of perennial herbaceous species is reducing soil
water availability early in the growing
season. Shifts in plant productivity and
type will likely also have significant impact on livestock operations.
Higher temperatures will very likely
reduce livestock production during
the summer, but these losses will very
likely be partially offset by warmer
temperatures during the winter. For
ruminants, current management systems generally do not provide shelter
to buffer the adverse effects of changing climate; such protection is more
frequently available for non-ruminants
(e.g. swine and poultry). MBN
Milling & bakingbusiness.com
Baking News
July
1, 2008 / 31
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Milling & Baking News - July 1, 2008

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