Milling & Baking News - July 15, 2008 - 38

Ingredient Week

 Wheat Futures

Prices continued to drop in wheat futures last week as forecasts for U.S. and
world wheat production increased and
the winter wheat harvest expanded.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture
projected U.S. wheat production in 2008
at 2,461 million bus, up 394 million bus,
or 19%, from 2,067 million bus in 2007.
Winter wheat production was projected
at 1,864 million bus, up 3% from the June
forecast and up 23%, from 1,516 million
bus in 2007. Most of the increase from
June came in soft red winter wheat. Otherspring wheat production was projected at
507 million bus, up 6%, from 479 million
bus in 2007. The other-spring wheat forecast fell below trade expectations.
The U.S.D.A raised its forecast for the
U.S. carryover of wheat on June 1, 2009, by
50 million bus, to 537 million bus. The forecast for this year was up 231 million bus,
or 75%, from 306 million bus in 2008. Total
wheat supply in 2008-09 was projected at
2,866 million bus, up 80 million bus from
the June forecast and up 9% from 2007-08.
Domestic wheat use in 2008-09 was projected at 1,329 million bus, up 30 million
bus from June and up 26% from 2007-08.
Wheat exports in 2008-09 were projected
at 1,000 million bus, unchanged from June
but down 21% from 1,261 million bus in

2007-08. The average farm price for wheat
in 2008-09 was forecast to range from
$6.75 to $8.25 a bu, unchanged from June
and compared with a record $6.48 a bu in
2007-08 and $4.26 in 2006-07.
The U.S.D.A. projected 2008-09 world
wheat ending stocks at 133.06 million
tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from June
and up 17.01 million tonnes from 116.05
million tonnes in 2007-08. World wheat
production in the current year was forecast at a record 664.24 million tonnes, up
1.34 million tonnes from June and up
53.47 million tonnes from 2007-08.
The U.S. winter wheat harvest on July
6 was 52% completed compared with
36% a week earlier and 61% as the recent
five-year average for the date.
Net export sales of U.S. wheat during
the week ended July 3 totaled 617,100
tonnes, down 8% from the preceding
week. U.S. prices were uncompetitive in
a number of instances. MBN

 Millfeed

Millfeed values were uneven within and
between regions last week with sharply
lower corn futures and tight nearby millfeed supplies driving factors.
Prices began the week sharply lower in
some areas as corn futures prices plunged
from the previous week's record highs.

Wheat futures

Kansas City wheat futures
September contract, $ per bu

$ per bu; change in cents per bu

Kansas City
July
September
December
March
Chicago
July
September
December
March
Minneapolis
July
September
December
March

Season's
Low

- Change from -
July 3 June 27

Week's
High
Low

Year
ago

High

8.53
8.64½
8.86
9.07

-52c
-47¾c
-49c
-50c

-72c
-80½c
-80c
-78c

8.75
9.61
9.85
9.33

8.30
8.44
8.68½
8.88

6.08½
6.09
6.27¼
6.33

13.00
12.95
12.99
12.75

(02-27-08)
(03-10-08)
(03-10-08)
(03-13-08)

4.39
4.73
4.85
4.78

(04-24-06)
(04-02-07)
(04-02-07)
(04-30-07)

8.19
8.30¾
8.55
8.78

-53¾c
-56¾c
-55¼c
-53½c

-76½c
-81¼c
-80½c
-77¾c

8.38
8.58
8.80
8.92

8.02
8.12
8.36
8.60

6.14
6.20¾
6.35¼
6.40½

12.50
12.78
12.84¼
12.75

(02-27-08)
(03-10-08)
(03-10-08)
(03-13-08)

3.72
5.00
4.30
6.76

(01-16-06)
(05-21-07)
(04-24-06)
(10-24-07)

9.81
8.96½
9.09¾
9.23

-99c
-231c
-41½c -105¾c
-45¼c -103¼c
-46c
-109c

9.90
9.13
9.31½
9.35

9.81
8.67
8.86
9.09

6.42
6.30
6.39¼
6.50

15.50
13.20
13.15
13.00

(02-27-08)
(02-26-08)
(02-25-08)
(02-26-08)

4.67
4.40
4.80
5.19

(10-30-06)
(11-01-06)
(01-08-07)
(04-18-07)

Aug.
146 @ 151
160 @ 165
154 @ 164
150 @ 160
167 @ 177
135 @ 145
125 @ 140
145 @ 150
204 @ 214
200 @ 210
180 @ 190

Sept.
146 @ 151
160 @ 165
154 @ 164
150 @ 160
167 @ 177
135 @ 145
130 @ 140
145 @ 150
204 @ 214
200 @ 210
180 @ 190

July 11

Millfeed prices turned higher at midweek on good demand for tight nearby
supplies that resulted from lighter-thanexpected flour grind after the holiday
weekend. Mills in several regions had
sporadic, unplanned downtime.
Millfeed prices ended the week with
narrow changes in the Southwest and
Upper Midwest, sharply higher in the
Central states, Southeast and Northeast,
and lower in the Pacific Northwest and
California, where hot weather began to
decrease demand from dairies. OctoberDecember prices dropped in some areas
on pressure from lower corn.
End user demand for nearby product
was stronger than expected considering the time of year. Millfeed remained
a good value compared with most other
feed ingredients and corn. Sales out of
the Northeast to other regions ended up
shorting some buyers in the region when
slow shipment of already-sold flour limited grind at some mills.
Wheat germ prices were $5 a ton higher.
Bulk middlings were $146 a ton K.C.
and $156 Minneapolis compared with
corn at $236 a ton and sorghum at $217,
K.C. Corn gluten feed down $10 at
$160 ton, distillers' dried grain down
$15 at $175 and dehydrated alfalfa up
$2 at $242. MBN

Chicago wheat futures
September contract, $ per bu

Bulk middlings
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted
Spot
Kansas City
146 @ 151
Southwest, f.o.b. truck
160 @ 165
Minneapolis
156 @ 166
Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck 152 @ 162
Chicago West
169 @ 179
Central states, f.o.b truck 140 @ 150
Buffalo
130 @ 140
Southeast
147 @ 157
N. & S. California
209 @ 219
Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck 205 @ 215
Pacific Northwest
180 @ 190
Upper Midwest, sacked
245
Wheat germ
190 @ 205
38 / July 15, 2008

Milling & Baking News

- Change from - Year
July
July 3
June 27
ago
146@ 151 +2 @ +3
+9 @ +9 40 @ 44
160@ 165 +6 @ +6 +20 @ +20 60 @ 65
156@ 166 +1 @ +4
+5 @ +5 63 @ 68
152@ 162 +1 @ +4
+5 @ +15 59 @ 64
169@ 179 +1 @ +4
+5 @ +5 76 @ 81
140@ 150 +10 @ +15 +12 @ +12 61 @ 67
125@ 140 +20 @ +25 +18 @ +23 57 @ 64
145@ 155 +20 @ +25 +24 @ +28 49 @ 55
209@ 219
-5 @ -5
-5 @ -10 109 @ 124
205@ 215
-5 @ -5
-5 @ -10 105 @ 120
180@ 190 -10 @ -10 -10 @ -10 97 @ 107

Oct.-Dec.
157 @ 162
170 @ 175
158 @ 166
154 @ 162
171 @ 179
150 @ 160
140 @ 150
150 @ 160
209 @ 219
205 @ 215
180 @ 190

Minneapolis wheat futures
September contract, $ per bu

bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - July 15, 2008

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - July 15, 2008
