Milling & Baking News - October 21, 2008 - 45

Ingredient Week

 Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red
winter wheat in Kansas City were 10c a
bu higher to 4c a bu lower last week. The
10c gain applied to 11.2% protein-wheat.
Premiums on wheat with protein from
12% through 13.6% advanced 2@4c a
bu. The basis at other levels, including
wheat with both the highest and lower
protein, was unchanged. The generally
softer tone in the basis contrasted with
advances seen during the previous couple of weeks.
Mills through the recent basis rally
bought wheat as needed, but reseller
needs, especially for specific qualities
and origins/billing, provided the fuel
for the run-up. Resellers were less active
last week, removing a prop from under
the basis. Another factor in bringing the
advance in the cash basis to an end were
continued wheat shipments out of South
Dakota that worked their way into Kansas City even as Nebraska and Kansas
wheat offers decreased.
There were few complaints about rail
logistics, which was unusual for the stage
of the fall crop harvest, and trucks were
not so difficult to secure as earlier feared.
Farmer selling was light across most
of the region as producers were frustrated with falling prices and concentrated
on the fall crop harvest.
Rain across much of region chased
producers from fields early in the week,
slowing the pace of fall crop harvest and
wheat planting. The moisture was welcomed, though, particularly in eastern
Colorado, western Kansas and the Texas
and Oklahoma panhandles.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture
indicated winter wheat planting on Oct.
12 was 79% completed in Kansas (75% as
the recent five-year average for the date),
75% in Oklahoma (73%), 70% in Texas
(68%), 92% in Nebraska (94%) and 97%

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City Dec., cents per bu
Oct. 17 - Change from -
Premium Oct. 10
Oct. 3
Ordinary -35 @ 0
-
-
11%
-10 @ 5
-
-
11.2%
10 @ 25 +10 @ +10 +15@ +15
11.4%
15 @ 30
-
+10@ +10
11.6%
22 @ 37
-
+10@ +10
11.8%
30 @ 45
-
+10@ +10
12%
38 @ 53 -2 @ -2
-2@ -2
12.2%
39 @ 54 -2 @ -2
-1@ -1
12.4%
39 @ 54 -2 @ -2
-1@ -1
12.6%
39 @ 54 -2 @ -2
-1@ -1
12.8%
46 @ 61 -4 @ -4
-4@ -4
13%
51 @ 66 -4 @ -4
-2@ -2
13.2%
51 @ 66 -4 @ -4
-2@ -2
13.4%
53 @ 68 -4 @ -4
-
13.6%
53 @ 68 -4 @ -4
-
13.8%
57 @ 72
-
+4@ +4
14%
57 @ 72
-
+4@ +4
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Year
ago
0 @ 20
10 @ 30
20 @ 40
33 @ 53
37 @ 57
37 @ 57
37 @ 57
39 @ 59
42 @ 62
45 @ 65
50 @ 70
55 @ 75
55 @ 75
55 @ 75
55 @ 75
55 @ 75
55 @ 75

in Colorado (96%). Wheat emergence
was 51% in Kansas (44% as the average
for the date), 49% in Oklahoma (49%),
46% in Texas (41%), 77% in Nebraska
(76%) and 74% in Colorado (76%).
The U.S.D.A. on Oct. 10 estimated
fall crop (corn, soybeans and sorghum)
production across the Southwest (Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Oklahoma
and Texas) at 3,111,470,000 bus, down
70,340,000 bus from 2007. The U.S.D.A.
said the corn harvest on Oct. 12 was 45%
completed in Kansas, 14% in Nebraska,
34% in Colorado and 76% in Texas. The
soybean harvest was 46% completed in
Kansas and 62% in Nebraska. The sorghum harvest was 17% completed in
Kansas, 25% in Oklahoma, 71% in Texas,
5% in Nebraska and 28% in Colorado.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard
red spring wheat in Minneapolis were
unchanged to 30c a bu higher last week.
Mill and exporter demand encountered
limited offers because of producer and
elevator preoccupation with the expanding fall crop harvest.
Despite growing competition for rail
cars from the fall crops, rail logistics
posed no significant problems to wheat
buyers to date.
Rain across the northern Plains early
last week slowed the fall crops' harvest
progress. The U.S.D.A. indicated the
soybean harvest on Oct. 12 was 60%
completed in North Dakota, 56% in
South Dakota and 67% in Minnesota.
The corn harvest was 1% completed in

North Dakota, 11% in South Dakota and
5% in Minnesota.
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat remained at historically low levels. In Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids
held at 190c under K.C. Dec. to 90c under. Gulf bids on soft red for October
advanced 38c, to 45c under Chicago Dec.
St. Louis mill bids were unchanged at
200c under Chicago Dec. Chicago mill
bids for nearby declined 5c, to 205c under Chicago Dec. Mill bids in Toledo
were 225c under Chicago Dec. Elevator bids were 185c under Dec. Elevators
were accepting no wheat until after the
row crop harvest. Cincinnati mill bids
were unchanged at 200c under Chicago
Dec. Elevator bids were 215c under Dec.;
new crop, 131c under July. Michigan
white wheat mill bids were 110c under
Chicago Dec. to 75c under.
Winter wheat planting on Oct. 12 was
18% completed in Missouri (34% as the
average for the date), 25% in Illinois
(49%), 47% in Indiana (47%), 65% in
Ohio (52%) and 54% in Michigan (64%).
Wheat emergence was 6% in Missouri
(12% as the average), 6% in Illinois (11%),
8% in Indiana (11%), 18% in Ohio (13%)
and 15% in Michigan (23%).
The corn harvest on Oct. 12 was 41%
completed in Missouri, 20% in Illinois,
26% in Indiana, 24% in Ohio and 15%
in Michigan. The soybean harvest was
20% completed in Missouri, 45% in Illinois, 55% in Indiana, 54% in Ohio and
42% in Michigan. MBN

No. 1 hard spring

Cash wheat

Milling quality, basis Minneapolis Dec., cents per bu
Oct. 17
- Change from -
Year
Premium Oct. 10
Oct. 3
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
...
...
...
...
13%
50
-
+55 @ +35 60 @ 65
13.5%
60
+15 @ +10
+60
...
14%
70 @ 95
+5 @ +30 +35 @ +50 60 @ 75
14.5%
...
...
...
...
15%
175 @ 230 +20 @ +30 +23 @ +50 70 @ 85
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
Oct. 17
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
October
...
...
November
+90 Dec.
...
December
+92 Dec.
95
January
+82 March
86
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
October
-45 Dec.
-35
November
-45 Dec.
-30
December
-45 Dec.
-30
January
-60 March -50

Year ago
bid

...
...
...
+83 March

+45
+50
+55
+60

Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
March

Oct. 17 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid Oct. 10 Oct. 3
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
Nearby
...
...
...
October
...
...
...
November
...
...
...
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
Nearby
...
...
...
October
...
...
...
November
...
...
...
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
Nearby
1.35
+.20
+.20
October
1.35
+.20
+.20
November
1.35
+.15
+.15

Year
ago
...
...
...
...
...
0.95

1.25
1.25
1.25

Canadian domestic milling wheat
Change from Year
In-store, Thunder Bay,
Oct. 17
Oct. 10
ago
Canadian $ per tonne
Western red spring 13.5% 310.72
+2.61
338.11
Soft white spring
262.82 -17.18
387.78
Amber durum
564.75 -14.95
708.27
U.S. $ per bu
Western red spring 13.5%
7.15
0.11
9.55
Soft white spring
6.05
-0.35
10.95
Amber durum
13.00
-0.25
20.00
Milling & Baking News

October 21, 2008 / 45
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - October 21, 2008

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