Milling & Baking News - November 18, 2008 - 50

Ingredient Week

 Wheat Futures

Prices of wheat futures managed to
advance last week despite ongoing pressure from weak outside markets - with
the notable exception of corn, which also
closed higher for the week - a stronger
U.S. dollar and generally bearish fundamental features.
Before the week's trading began, the
U.S. Department of Agriculture issued
its November revisions to 2008-09 U.S.
and world wheat supply and demand
estimates. The department on Nov. 10
raised its forecast for the U.S. carryover of
wheat on June 1, 2009, to 603 million bus,
up 2 million bus from its October forecast and up 297 million bus, or 96%, from
306 million bus in 2008. All 2008-09 U.S.
wheat supply data were unchanged from
October. Domestic wheat use in 2008-09
was projected at 1,302 million bus, down
2 million bus from October because of a
2-million-bu reduction in projected seed
use to 82 million bus. U.S. wheat exports
in 2008-09 were projected at 1,000 million
bus, unchanged from October.
The U.S.D.A. projected 2008-09 world
wheat ending stocks at 145.25 million
tonnes, up 0.84 million tonnes from October and up 22% from 2007-08. The world
wheat ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 22.1% compared with 19.3% last

year, which was tightest in records extending back to 1960-61. World wheat production was estimated at a record 682.37 million tonnes, up 2.17 million tonnes from
October and up 12% from 610.59 million
tonnes in 2007-08. World wheat imports
were projected at 121.83 million tonnes,
up 1 million tonnes from October. World
wheat use in 2008-09 was projected at a record 656.51 million tonnes, up 0.93 million
tonnes from October. Declining production prospects in Argentina and Australia
were more than offset by increased crop
estimates for Europe and Russia.
Export sales of U.S. wheat during
the week ended Nov. 9 totaled 248,300
tonnes, down 32% from the previous
week and down 40% from the recent
four-week average.
The U.S.D.A. indicated the winter
wheat crop was 94% planted and 83%
emerged by Nov. 9. The department
rated good to excellent 68% of the crop
compared with 67% a week earlier and
49% a year ago. MBN

 Millfeed

Erratic moves were commonplace in
primary markets last week with no overall price trend in evidence. Moderate to
sharp gains during the week took place
in the Midwest, Southeast and Central

Wheat futures

Kansas City wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu

$ per bu; change in cents per bu

Kansas City
December
March
May
July
Chicago
December
March
May
July
Minneapolis
December
March
May
July

Season's
Low

- Change from -
Nov. 7 Oct. 31

Week's
High
Low

Year
ago

High

5.93¼
6.07½
6.18½
6.29

+25¼c
+23c
+23½c
+25½c

+20¼c
+17c
+16c
+18½c

6.06
6.23
6.18
6.35

5.50
5.66
5.79
5.86½

7.74½
7.88¾
7.75
6.93½

12.99
12.75
12.55
11.35

(03-10-08)
(03-13-08)
(03-13-08)
(03-12-08)

4.85
4.78
5.66
4.60

(04-02-07)
(04-30-07)
(10-24-08)
(03-02-07)

5.54¼
5.74½
5.89
6.03

+33¼c
+32½c
+33c
+33c

+18c
+17¾c
+18½c
+19c

5.62
5.87
5.89
6.03½

5.06
5.27½
5.42
5.58½

7.49½
7.70½
7.55
6.65¼

12.84¼
12.75
11.90
11.40¾

(03-10-08)
(10-13-08)
(03-13-08)
(03-12-08)

5.03
5.25
5.47½
4.47

(10-24-08)
(10-24-08)
(10-24-08)
(10-20-06)

6.57½
6.53¼
6.59½
6.68¼

+17½c
+26c
+29c
+30c

+10c
+18¾c
+27¼c
+30¼c

6.74
6.66
6.72
6.68¼

6.30
6.16
6.20
6.28

8.26
8.14¼
7.92
7.50

13.15
13.00
12.50
12.20

(02-25-08)
(02-26-08)
(02-26-08)
(03-12-08)

4.80
5.19
5.85
6.02

(01-08-07)
(04-18-07)
(07-11-07)
(10-24-08)

Nov. 14

states. However, Northeast levels were
lackluster and West coast markets lost
ground, especially California.
Feed manufacturers who were aggressive buyers at higher levels some weeks
back appeared largely covered through
the year's end. Only cautious interest
developed for extending coverage into
2009. An ongoing active "paper" market was closely tied to corn; so, millfeed
shared in some of the extreme volatility
seen in the corn market.
Traders became increasingly nervous
over millfeed supply, especially during
the Thanksgiving holiday. A higher and
near record flour extraction rate resulted
in less-than-expected millfeed production at many points with both mills and
merchandisers struggling to keep up.
Some individual markets experienced
considerable pressure, especially California where local dairies substituted
distillers' dried grains for millfeed.
Wheat germ pricing was unchanged.
Users booked January-March within the
spot price range of $240@250 a ton.
Bulk middlings were $130 a ton in K.C.
and $103 in Minneapolis compared with
corn at $130 a ton and sorghum at $100,
both at K.C. Corn gluten feed was $138 a
ton, distillers' dried grain was $130 and
dehydrated alfalfa was $245. MBN

Chicago wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu

Bulk middlings
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted
Spot
Kansas City
130 @ 135
Southwest, f.o.b. truck
135 @ 140
Minneapolis
103 @ 110
Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck 99 @ 106
Chicago West
116 @ 123
Central states, f.o.b truck 98 @ 102
Buffalo
90 @ 100
Southeast
105 @ 110
N. & S. California
144 @ 159
Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck 140 @ 155
Pacific Northwest
150 @ 160
Upper Midwest, sacked
255
Wheat germ
240 @ 250
50 / November 18, 2008

Nov.
130@ 135
135@ 140
114@ 118
110@ 114
127@ 131
105@ 110
95 @ 105
110@ 115
144@ 159
140@ 155
150@ 160

Milling & Baking News

- Change from - Year
Nov. 7
Oct. 31
ago
+6@ +7 +7 @ +8 127 @ 129
-
+12 @ +13 131 @ 136
+13@ +7 +15 @ +9 127 @ 132
+13@ +7 +15 @ +9 123 @ 128
+13@ +7 +15 @ +9 140 @ 145
+5@ +7 +1 @ -4 112 @ 117
-
+5 @ +5 85 @ 90
+7@ +7 +13 @ +12 107 @ 111
-10@ -10 -10 @ -10 156 @ 176
-10@ -10 -10 @ -10 152 @ 172
-5@ -5 -10 @ -10 150 @ 160

Dec.
Jan.-Mar.
132@ 137 115 @ 119
142@ 147 125 @ 129
114@ 120 97 @ 101
110@ 116 93 @ 97
127@ 133 110 @ 114
113@ 120 102 @ 115
100@ 110 95 @ 105
110@ 115 101 @ 106
154@ 169 149 @ 164
150@ 165 145 @ 160
155@ 170 155 @ 165

Apr.-June
78@ 83
88@ 93
78@ 84
74@ 80
91@ 97
75@ 80
70@ 80
78@ 83
144@ 159
140@ 155
155@ 165

Minneapolis wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu

bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - November 18, 2008

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