Milling & Baking News - March 24, 2009 - 25

Data

U.S.D.A. raises wheat carryover forecast
again, up 47% from initial projection

wheat and declining per capita flour
consumption.
Seed use of wheat in 2008-09 was

yield projected at 42.6
2008-09 wheat supply/demand outlook:
bus per acre. While harMarch 2009 versus May 2008
vested area ultimately
was trimmed to 55.7
March 2009
May 2008
million acres because of
(initial projection)
a planted area smaller
Planted area
63.1
63.8
than initially forecast,
Harvested area
55.7
56.3
weather provided exYield
44.9
42.5
cellent growing condiBeginning stocks
306
237
tions,
abandonment
Production
2,500
2,392
was historically low and
Imports
120
100
the average wheat yield
Total supply
2,925
2,732
proved to be a record
44.9 bus per acre. As a
Food
925
960
result, wheat producSeed
78
84
tion in 2008 was 2,500
Feed and residual
230
230
million bus, up 108 milDomestic use
1,233
1,274
lion bus, or 5%, from the
Exports
980
975
May forecast and compared with 2,051 million
Use total
2,213
2,249
bus in 2007.
The U.S. wheat imEnding stocks
712
483
port forecast for 2008-09
Average farm price
$6.70@6.90
$6.60@8.10
initially was 100 million
bus but after adjustSource: U.S. Department of Agriculture
ments in December and
March currently stands at 120 million bus. projected at 78 million bus, down 6
Wheat carryover by classes
With the higher estimates million bus from the initial forecast
for beginning stocks, pro- and compared with 88 million bus
2009
2008
2007
2006
duction and imports, the in 2007-08. Winter wheat seeded
- (million bus) -
U.S.D.A. in March project- area for harvest this year was estiHard winter
278
138
165
215
ed total 2008-09 wheat sup- mated 9% smaller than in 2008, and
Soft red
158
55
109
106
ply at 2,925 million bus, up spring wheat plantings were expectHard spring
182
68
117
132
193 million bus from the ed to fall short of the 2008 seeded
White
62
37
44
78
initial forecast and com- area as well.
Durum
33
8
22
40
Feed and residual use of wheat in
pared with 2,620 million
Total
712
306
456
571
2008-09 was projected at 230 million
bus in 2007-08.
The U.S.D.A.'s current bus in May and at 230 million bus
projection for domestic in March.
Wheat exports by classes
U.S. wheat exports in 2008-09 were
disappearance of wheat in
2008-09 is 1,233 million bus, projected at 980 million bus, down 20
2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06
down 41 million bus from million bus from the February fore- (million bus) -
the initial forecast of 1,274 cast but up 5 million bus from the
Hard winter
438
538
281
430
million bus. The greatest May 2008 outlook. A strong start to
Soft red
190
209
146
76
decline came in the depart- the 2008-09 trade year prodded the
Hard spring
205
305
250
282
ment's forecast for food use. U.S.D.A. to raise its export forecast
White
130
170
197
175
The U.S.D.A. in March pro- to 1,000 million bus in June 2008, and
Durum
17
42
35
47
jected food use of wheat in the forecast remained at that level
Total
980
1,264
909
1,009
2008-09 at 925 million bus, until this month. A larger exportable
down 25 million bus from supply in Australia and the former
the February forecast and Soviet Union gave U.S. wheat offers
Domestic wheat use by classes
down 35 million bus from formidable competition.
The U.S.D.A. this month projectthe initial forecast made last
2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06
May at a record 960 million ed the average farm price of wheat
- (million bus) -
bus. Record food use now in 2008-09 would fall within a range
Hard winter
458
446
452
503
was expected to remain the from $6.70 to $6.90 a bu, unchanged
Soft red
346
211
261
256
947 million bus consumed from the February forecast and comHard spring
242
242
247
217
in 2007-08. Food use for the pared with the initial forecast made
White
106
68
101
120
current year was lowered last May at $6.60 to $8.10 a bu and
Durum
80
84
79
76
because of high flour ex- with a record price of $6.48 a bu in
Total
1,233
1,050
1,140
1,172
traction rates of 2008 crop 2007-08. MBN
WASHINGTON - The U.S. Department of Agriculture on March 11
raised by 57 million bus its forecast
for the carryover of wheat in the
United States on June 1, 2009, to 712
million bus. The revised forecast
was improved from the half-century
low of 306 million bus held in store
on June 1, 2008, and was 229 million
bus, or 47%, higher than the department's initial projection issued last
May at 483 million bus.
In its initial forecasts for 2008-09
U.S. wheat supply and demand issued in May 2008, the department
projected beginning stocks at 237
million bus. It raised the estimate
to 254 million bus in June 2008
and then to 306 million bus in July,
where it remains today. The latter
estimate was based on June 1, 2008,
wheat stocks data.
Wheat production in 2008 initially was forecast at 2,392 million bus
based on a harvested area projected
at 56.3 million acres and an average

26 / March 24, 2009

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Milling & Baking News - March 24, 2009

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