Milling & Baking News - December 15, 2009 - 32

Ingredient Market Trends
Weekly Spotlight

U.S. 2010 wheat carryover forecast
raised 15 million bus, to 900 million bus

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/ world-grain.com

he U.S. Department of Agriculture
on Dec. 10 raised its forecast of the
carryover of wheat in the United
States on June 1, 2010, by 15 million bus,
to 900 million bus. If the forecast is realized, the June 1 wheat inventory next
year will be the largest since 950 million
bus in 2000 and nearly triple the 2008
carryover of 306 million bus.
Many observers had anticipated a reduction in the U.S.D.A.'s 2009-10 wheat
export forecast, but there was none. Instead, the department lowered its projection for domestic food use of wheat
by 15 million bus, to 940 million bus,
and this accounted for the hike in the
carryover forecast.
All U.S. wheat supply estimates
were unchanged from November. The
U.S.D.A. projected a wheat supply in
the current year of 2,983 million bus, up
51 million bus from 2008-09. It would be
the largest wheat supply in the United
States since 3,268 million bus in 2000-01.
The supply included 657 million bus as
the current year's carry-in, 2,216 million
bus in production and 110 million bus in
projected imports.
At 940 million bus, the projected food
use of wheat compared with the November forecast of 955 million bus. The latter would have constituted record large
usage of wheat for food. The current
record for food use of wheat remains
950 million bus in 2000-01 followed by
948 million bus in 2007-08. In commentary accompanying the supply/demand
data, the U.S.D.A. said, "Food use is projected 15 million bus lower based on the
latest mill grind data from the U.S. Census Bureau and indications of 2009 crop
quality that suggest higher-than-normal
flour extraction rates again in 2009-10."
Other 2009-10 wheat use forecasts
were unchanged from November with
feed and residual use at 190 million
bus, down 68 million bus from 200809, and seed use at 78 million bus, up
3 million bus from 2008-09. Wheat exports in 2009-10 were projected at 875
million bus, down 140 million bus,
or 14%, from 1,015 million bus in the
previous year and the lowest since 950
million bus in 2002-03 and before that
599 million bus in 1971-72.

Wheat disappearance in the United
States in 2009-10 was projected at 2,083
million bus, down 15 million bus from
the November forecast and down 192
million bus, or 8%, from 2,275 million
bus in the previous year.
The largest carryover adjustment by
class from November was in hard winter
wheat. The 2010 hard winter carryover
was projected at 384 million bus, up 20
million bus from the November forecast
and up 130 million bus, or 51%, from
254 million bus in 2009. The hard spring

wheat carryover was forecast at 257 million bus, up 2 million from November
and up 115 million bus, or 81%, from 142
million bus in 2009. The soft red winter
wheat carryover was projected at 177
million bus, up 10 million bus from November and up 6 million bus from 171
million bus in 2009. The white wheat
carryover was projected at 42 million
bus, down 10 million bus from the previous forecast and down 22 million bus,
or 34%, from 64 million bus this year.
The 2010 durum carryover was projected at 40 million bus, down 7 million bus from November but up 15
million bus, or 60%, from 25 million
bus in 2009. MBN
bakingbusiness.com
/ world-grain.com
Milling & Baking
News December
15, 2009 / 33

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Milling & Baking News - December 15, 2009

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