Milling & Baking News - February 23, 2010 - 44

Data 

717

727

728

736

750

775

811

873

895

874

657

885

The U.S.D.A. forecast U.S. wheat
at the 2000-01 level at 950 million 225 million and 240 million bus.
"Domestic demand for wheat re- exports in 2010-11 at 875 million bus,
bus). Food use of wheat was forecast to increase steadily with the ris- flects a relatively mature market," unchanged from its projection for the
ing population during subsequent the U.S.D.A. said. "Food use of current year (the February WASDE
years of the trend line forecasts and wheat is projected to show moderate forecasts the current year's exports
50 million bus lower, at
reach 1,053 million bus in
825 million bus) but down
2019-20.
140 million bus, or 14%,
Seed use of wheat in
U.S. wheat long-term
from 1,015 million bus. U.S.
2010-11 was projected at
wheat exports were pro76 million bus, down 2
projections for ending stocks
jected to rise 25 million bus
million bus from 2009-10.
(million bus)
in 2011-12, to 900 million
Seed use was forecast to
bus, and hold at that level
drop another 2 million bus
through 2019-20.
in 2011-12, to 74 million
"U.S. wheat exports
bus, and again in 2012remain flat over the pro13, to 72 million bus, and
jection period, limited
range from 72 million bus
by competition primarto 73 million bus for the
ily from the Black Sea rerest of the forecast period.
gion," the U.S.D.A. said.
The U.S.D.A. forecast
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
2014-15
2016-17
2018-19
"In particular, the export
feed and residual use of
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
market share for Russia
wheat in 2010-11 at 210 milrises from 14% to 19%
lion bus, up 20 million bus
from the projection for the current gains, generally in line with popula- over the next decade. For the same
year at 190 million bus (the February tion increases. Feed use of wheat, a period, the U.S. market share deWASDE forecasts 2009-10 feed and lower value use of the crop, increas- clines from 19% to 16%."
U.S. 2010-11 wheat ending stocks
residual use at 170 million bus) but es from the level of 2009-10 and redown 50 million bus from 260 million mains relatively constant through were projected at 874 million bus,
bus in 2008-09. Feed and residual use the projections as prices relative to down 11 million bus from a proin subsequent years of the trend line corn allow some competition of feed jected 885 million bus in the current
year (the February WASDE forecast
period was forecast to range between wheat with feed grains."
for 2009-10 wheat ending stocks
was 981 million bus). The trend
line forecast 2011-12 wheat ending
stocks at 895 million bus, but yearend inventories were forecast to decline steadily during the remainder
of the trend line period to 717 million bus by 2019-20. At no time during the trend line period were ending stocks forecast to fall below the
2008-09 level of 657 million bus.
The U.S.D.A. projected the wheat
ending stocks-to-use ratio in 201011 at 41.2%, down from a forecast
42.2% in 2009-10 but up from 28.9%
in 2008-09. The stocks-to-use ratio
was projected to decline steadily
during the remainder of the trend
line period to 31.7% in 2019-20.
The average farm price of wheat in
the United States in 2010-11 was forecast at $5 a bu, up 15c from a projected $4.85 a bu in 2009-10 (the February
MICHIGAN WHITE WHEAT PASTRY FLOUR
WASDE had a range of $4.75@4.95 a
HARD WHEAT FLOURS
bu for 2009-10) and compared with
WHOLE WHEAT SPECIALISTS
a record $6.78 a bu in 2008-09. The
SUPER KLEANED WHEAT
U.S.D.A. forecast an average price of
wheat of $4.90 a bu in 2011-12. The
FOOD GRADE BRANS
price was forecast to range between
HEAT TREATED FLOURS
$4.65 and $4.75 a bu for the remainder
of the trendline period.
The U.S.D.A. will issue its first official
U.S. and world wheat supplyLOWELL , MICHIGAN 49331
and-demand projections for 2010-11
WWW.KINGFLOUR.COM
in the May WASDE. MBN

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44 / February 23, 2010 Milling & Baking News

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