Milling & Baking News - May 18, 2010 - 23

Data 

wheat outturn was 198 million bus.
The Kansas hard winter wheat crop
was projected at 344,400,000 bus, down
7% from 369,600,000 bus in 2009. Harvested area in the state was projected
at 8,200,000 acres, down 7% from
8,800,000 acres last year. Average yield
was forecast at 42 bus per acre, the
same as last year. A week before the
U.S.D.A. issued its winter wheat projections, the Wheat Quality Council's
Kansas wheat tour forecast an average
yield of 40.7 bus per acre and projected
a crop around 333.5 million bus.
The U.S.D.A. commented, "In the
southern Great Plains, mostly adequate rainfall this spring along with
moderate temperatures allowed for
good crop development. Record
snowfall in Oklahoma aided the crop
throughout the early growing season.

Crop conditions improved last year in
all of the major hard red winter wheatproducing states ... The crop in the
northern Great Plains had adequate
snow cover with limited winter kill reported. Yields are forecasted to be up
from 2009 in Montana, Oklahoma and
Texas, and down in Colorado and Nebraska, and unchanged in Kansas. "
The U.S.D.A. soft red winter wheat
forecast at around 283 million bus was
near the soft wheat millers' projection
of 287 million bus made at the end of
March. The principal reason for the
sharp drop in wheat production forecast for this year compared with 2009
was a precipitous decline in harvested area. Harvested area in the Central states was projected 39% smaller
this year than last, and the Southeast harvested area was projected

Initial forecasts of 2011 wheat
carryover at 997 million bus
million bus, the latter based on planting intentions and trendline data for
yield and abandonment.
The U.S.D.A. said in commentary accompanying the supply-and-demand
data, "The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is down 4%, but
higher yields in Oklahoma, Texas, and
a number of soft red winter wheat states
partly offset an 8% decline in expected
winter wheat harvested area. Spring
wheat production is also expected lower (down 16% from 2009) as a return to
trend yields from last year's record levels lower production prospects."
U.S. wheat imports in 2010-11 were
projected at 110 million bus, down
5 million bus from the forecast for
2009-10.
The U.S.D.A. projected total wheat
supply in the United States in
2010-11 at 3,103 million bus,
Wheat supply, disappearance
up 4% from 2,988 million bus
in the current year. It would
2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08
be the largest U.S. wheat sup- (million bus) -
ply in a marketing year since
Supply
2000-01.
Carryover
950
657
306
456
The U.S.D.A. projected doCrop
2,043
2,216
2,499
2,051
mestic
food use of wheat in
Imports
110
115
127
113
the United States in 2010-11 at
Total
3,103
2,988
2,932
2,620
940 million bus, up 20 million
Domestic disappearance
bus from a forecast 920 milFood
940
920
927
948
lion bus in 2009-10 as flour exSeed
76
73
75
88
tractions rates were expected
Feed
190
180
258
16
to return to historical averagTotal
1,206
1,173
1,260
1,051
Exports
900
865
1,015
1,263
es from their high levels durTotal disappearance
2,106
2,038
2,275
2,314
ing the past two years. The
Ending stocks
997
950
657
306
record food use of wheat was
950 million bus in 2000-01.
WASHINGTON - The U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 11, in its
initial supply-and-demand projections
for the 2010-11 crop year, projected the
carryover of wheat in all positions in the
United States on June 1, 2011, at 997 million bus, up 47 million bus, or 5%, from
950 million bus forecast for 2010 and up
52% from the 2009 carryover of 657 million bus. If the projection is realized, the
2011 wheat carryover would be the largest since 1,261 million bus in 1988.
The U.S.D.A. projected U.S. allwheat production in 2010 at 2,043
million bus, down 8% from 2,216 million bus in 2009. The 2010 projection
was based on a forecast winter wheat
outturn of 1,458 million bus and
projected spring wheat (including
durum) production of about 585

24 / May 18, 2010 Milling & Baking News

to be 35% smaller than in 2009.
The U.S.D.A. added, "The delayed
fall seeding in many of the soft red
winter-producing states led to emergence lagging behind the five-year
average. Precipitation has been lower
than normal across much of the Corn
Belt. The per cent of the crop rated
good to excellent declined from last
year in Illinois, Indiana and Missouri.
Yields were expected to be up from
2009 in Illinois, down in Missouri and
unchanged in Ohio."
Turning to the soft white winter wheat
states of the Pacific Northwest, the
U.S.D.A. said, "A cool, wet spring in the
Pacific Northwest has caused crop development to be slightly behind the fiveyear average in Oregon and Washington.
Yields are forecasted to be up from 2009
in Idaho, Oregon and Washington." MBN
Feed and residual use was projected
at 190 million bus, up 10 million bus
from a forecast 180 million bus in
2009-10. The U.S.D.A. indicated the
large 2010-11 carry-in, particularly for
soft red winter wheat, raised feed use
prospects. Seed use of wheat was projected at 76 million bus, up 3 million
bus from 73 million bus in 2009-10.
U.S. wheat exports in 2010-11 were
projected at 900 million bus, up 35 million bus, or 4%, from 865 million bus
forecast in the current year but 11%
below 2008-09 exports of 1,015 million
bus. The U.S.D.A. said the higher export
forecast for 2010-11 compared with the
current year reflected large, early season
supplies and lower prices that improved
the competitiveness of U.S. wheat.
The average farm price of U.S.
wheat in 2010-11 was projected to fall
in a range of $4.10@5.10 a bus, compared with an estimated $4.90 in 200910 and $6.78 in 2008-09.
While the U.S.D.A. will not issue
2010-11 U.S. wheat supply-and-demand projections by class until July,
data for 2009-10 were revised from
April. Ending stocks for hard winter
wheat in the current year were forecast
at 380 million bus, down 20 million bus
from April. White wheat ending stocks
were forecast at 62 million bus, up 10
million from a month earlier. Durum
ending stocks were forecast at 47 million bus, up 10 million from the April
projection. Ending stocks forecasts for
hard spring wheat and soft red winter
wheat were unchanged from April at
250 million bus and 211 million bus,
respectively. The total ending stocks
figure of 950 million bus for 2010 was
unchanged from April. MBN
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Milling & Baking News - May 18, 2010

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