Milling & Baking News - September 20, 2011 - 51

Cash Wheat
HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red winter wheat in Kansas City dropped 5@16c a bu last week with the exception of ordinary wheat, which was unchanged. Wheat pipelines were said to be getting “pluggy.” Mills have received timely deliveries of wheat for application against September contracts, which reduced the need for most to turn to the spot market for supply. Pipelines to Gulf export elevators also were ﬁlled and exporter bids weakened. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Sept. 12 reduced its forecast for hard red winter wheat exports in 2011-12 by 50 million bus, to 440 million bus. The department indicated as of Thursday, Sept. 8, exports and undelivered sales of hard red winter wheat in the current marketing year aggregated 188.8 million bus, or 43% of the forecast. Hard red winter wheat exports so far this year were 29% lower than a year ago. Winter wheat planting expanded across the principal hard red winter wheat states. Planting was 3% completed in Kansas by Sept. 11 (4% as the recent ﬁve-year average for the date), 1% in Oklahoma (8%), 2% in Texas (9%), 17% in Colorado (17%), 23% in Nebraska (20%), 17% in South Dakota (18%) and 6% in Montana (16%). As wheat planting expanded, there remained concerns over prospects in drought areas of Texas and Oklahoma and extremely dry areas across southern Kansas. Most of Texas remained in severe to exceptional drought. The Texas ﬁeld oﬃce of U.S.D.A. commented in its Sept. 12 Crop Progress report, “In areas of the Plains, producers diverted irrigation to wheat ﬁelds to begin planting; however, planting on non-irrigated wheat ﬁelds was delayed due to very dry soil conditions.” Across Oklahoma, the topsoil moisture was 99%

short to very short, and subsoil moisture was 100% short to very short. Kansas topsoil moisture statewide was 74% short to very short. The southwest district was 99% short to very short while the south central district was 97% short to very short. A meteorologist addressing members of the Kansas City Board of Trade on Sept. 15 indicated areas in the Southwest from the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma to Nebraska may receive a quarterinch to 1 inch of precipitation in the next few days with a few spots at 1 inch to 2 inches. A small area, including northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, may receive 1 to 3 inches. The meteorologist said a diﬀerent model suggested even more precipitation, but he thought the wetter scenario may not be realized. HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red spring wheat quoted as delivered Chicago/ beyond values in relation to the Minneapolis December wheat future were 5c a bu higher to 10c lower last week. The cash spring wheat basis recently has been rangebound. The spread in values between higher protein and lower protein supply was narrow, reﬂecting the relatively high average protein of the 2011 crop. Farmer selling of their harvest wheat was sluggish, but demand for spring wheat lacked depth. The substitution of high-protein hard winter wheat for spring wheat by mills at several locations still made economic sense and remained a constraining factor with regard to demand for spring wheat. Duluth wheat stocks were said to

be low. But foreign demand for U.S. spring wheat was only routine, and the U.S.D.A. on Sept. 12 lowered its forecast for 2011-12 spring wheat exports by 10 million bus, to 260 million bus. The spring wheat harvest in the six key states was 83% completed by Sept. 11 compared with 87% as the recent ﬁve-year average for the date. Combining was 82% completed in North Dakota (85% as the average), 97% in Minnesota (92%), 68% in Montana (81%), 85% in Idaho (87%) and 83% in Washington (96%). The South Dakota harvest was completed two weeks earlier. SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter wheat were mostly unchanged last week. In Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids were unchanged at 95c under K.C. December to 35c under. Gulf bids on soft red for nearby advanced 7c at 37c over Chicago December. St. Louis mill bids were unchanged at 5c over Chicago December. Chicago mill bids were 20c under Chicago December, unchanged. Mill bids in Toledo for nearby were unchanged at 40c under Chicago December; January, the Chicago March price. Elevator bids were 30c under Chicago December for nearby; new crop, 25c under July. Cincinnati nearby mill bids held at 35c under Chicago December. Elevator bids for nearby were 59c under Chicago December. Michigan white wheat mill bids for nearby were 20c under Chicago December to 10c over. Winter wheat planting was yet to begin in the key Central states. MBN

No. 1 hard spring
Basis Minneapolis Dec., delivered Chicago\beyond cents per bu Sept. 16 — Change from — Year Premium Sept. 9 Sept. 2 ago Ordinary ... ... ... … 11% ... ... ... … 12% ... ... ... -110 @ -100 13% 90 @ 105 -10 @ +5 +15@ +25 -80 @ -50 13.5% ... ... ... -60 @ -40 14% 90 @ 120 -5 @ 0 0@ +30 0 @ 85 14.5% ... ... ... 85 15% 105 @ 110 -10 @ -5 +25@ +20 250 @ 350 16% ... ... ... 350 17% ... ... ... …

Cash wheat
Sept. 16 — Change from — For shipment Bid Sept. 9 Sept. 2 No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland $ per bu September ... ... ... October 6.88 -.31 -.34 November 6.92 -.33 -.36 No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu September ... ... ... October 0.75 +.30 +.30 November 0.75 +.27 +.27 No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu September 0.95 -.05 ... October 1.40 +.20 +.20 November 1.40 +.15 +.15 Year ago 6.60 6.65 6.75 0.00 … 0.05

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City Dec., cents per bu Sept. 16 — Change from — Premium Sept. 9 Sept. 2 Ordinary 15 @ 30 — -13 @ -13 11% 20 @ 35 -10 @ -10 -10 @ -10 11.2% 20 @ 35 -16 @ -16 -16 @ -16 11.4% 30 @ 45 -13 @ -13 -13 @ -13 11.6% 35 @ 50 -10 @ -10 -18 @ -18 11.8% 40 @ 55 -9 @ -9 -14 @ -14 12% 43 @ 58 -7 @ -7 -17 @ -17 12.2% 43 @ 58 -7 @ -7 -17 @ -17 12.4% 43 @ 58 -7 @ -7 -17 @ -17 12.6% 45 @ 60 -5 @ -5 -15 @ -15 12.8% 55 @ 70 -5 @ -5 -13 @ -13 13% 63 @ 78 -7 @ -7 -20 @ -20 13.2% 63 @ 78 -7 @ -7 -20 @ -20 13.4% 65 @ 80 -5 @ -5 -18 @ -18 13.6% 70 @ 85 -9 @ -9 -13 @ -13 13.8% 70 @ 85 -11 @ -11 -13 @ -13 14% 73 @ 88 -12 @ -12 -17 @ -17
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Year ago -65 @ -50 -65 @ -50 -60 @ -45 -60 @ -45 -55 @ -40 -40 @ -25 -35 @ -20 -35 @ -20 -35 @ -20 -5 @ 10 -5 @ 10 11 @ 26 11 @ 26 26 @ 41 26 @ 41 26 @ 41 26 @ 41

Exporter bids and offers
For Sept. 16 shipment Bid Offer No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu September … … October +85 Dec. … November +90 Dec. 100 December +90 Dec. 100 No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans Basis Chicago future, cents per bu September +37 Dec. 40 October +55 Dec. 70 November +65 Dec. … December +67 Dec. 77 Year ago bid

… +55 Dec. +55 Dec. +55 Dec.

Canadian domestic milling wheat
Change from Year In-store, Thunder Bay, Sept. 16 Sept. 9 ago Canadian $ per tonne Western red spring 13.5% 355.64 -20.72 325.79 Soft white spring 281.27 -10.00 299.88 Amber durum 549.92 -8.80 309.37 U.S. $ per bu Western red spring 13.5% 9.86 -0.41 8.58 Soft white spring 7.80 -0.15 7.90 Amber durum 15.25 — 8.15
Milling & Baking News September 20, 2011 / 51

+35 +45 +50 +55

Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec.

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Ingredient Week

1.05 1.10 1.10
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Milling & Baking News - September 20, 2011

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