Milling & Baking News - December 11, 2012 - 44

Ingredient Week 

Wheat Futures
Wheat futures continued to trade toward the low end of the price range that has ruled since mid-July. Price advances and declines alternated during the week as the market weighed uncertain demand for U.S. wheat against concerns over the exceptionally poor condition of the 2013 hard winter wheat crop with the approach of winter. Prices rallied in early trading during last Monday’s session in response to the purchase over the weekend by Egypt of 280,000 tonnes of U.S. soft wheat. But the rally quickly ran out of steam, and prices ended the same day lower, extending the downward trajectory seen at the end of the previous week. The wheat sale to Egypt indicated U.S. soft wheat prices were becoming competitive in key world markets. But export sales otherwise were lackluster, and many of the major wheat importers previously purchased wheat to be delivered well into 2013. Exportable supply was diminishing in the Black Sea nations, but it was uncertain just how much world demand may shift to the United States. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will issue a revised wheat export forecast in its December World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates that will be published Dec. 11. The U.S.D.A. indicated net export sales

of U.S. wheat during the week ended Nov. 29 totaled 353,100 tonnes for 201213, up 26% from a week earlier but down 2% from the prior four-week average. The sales results were toward the low end of trade expectations that ranged from 300,000 tonnes to 450,000 tonnes. Farmer selling remained next to nil. Producers in the key hard winter wheat states earlier sold between 80% and 85% of their 2012 production and were tight holders of the rest. Selling enthusiasm was tempered less by price than by deep concerns about the poor condition of the 2013 hard winter wheat crop as winter approached. Weather forecasts held out little hope for near-term relief from the historic drought across the Plains states. A weakening corn market helped pave the way lower for wheat. In contrast, wide gains were scored in soy complex futures on strong export demand. A rising dollar index exerted some weight at least on corn and wheat. MBN

Millfeed
Prices were mixed in a week of quiet, featureless trading. Issues from the previous week related to the liquidation of Hostess Brands appeared settled, and flour grind resumed a more normal schedule of about six days.

Most buying was nearby with the intention of preparing for the back-to-back holiday-shortened weeks at the end of the year, when supplies were likely to contract. While no firm information about Christmas and New Year’s run times was available yet, traders said there was a strong possibility some mills would run for only three days during both weeks. Some Upper Midwest and Central states traders noted flour bookings for January-March appeared to be progressing at a slower-than-normal pace as some bakers hoped for higher millfeed credits before completing contracts. Interest was developing in the January-March period although little millfeed trading took place. Some deferred prices were at a deeper discount than normal. Ideas were developing that prices may rise in 2013 as the drought shows no signs of abating. Last summer, drought drove millfeed prices to historic highs. Millfeed was $200 a ton in Kansas City and $214 in Minneapolis, on a rail basis, compared with corn at $272 a ton and sorghum at $256 a ton, both K.C. Corn gluten feed was $5 higher at $240 a ton, distillers’ dried grain gained $5 to $275 a ton, and dehydrated alfalfa was steady at $360 a ton, all K.C. Wheat germ held steady. MBN

Wheat futures
$ per bu; change in cents per bu Dec. 7 Kansas City December March May July Chicago December March May July Minneapolis December March May July 8.96 9.09¾ 9.19½ 9.24¾ 8.44¼ 8.61 8.70¼ 8.73¾ 9.17¼ 9.34 9.42¾ 9.50 — Change from — Nov. 30 Nov. 23 -1½c -3½c -2¾c +2¾c -½c -2½c -1¾c +3¼c -1¼c -2¾c -3½c +1¾c +17¾c +14¼c +16c +24¾c -3½c -½c +2¼c +19½c +3½c +9c +8¾c +16½c Week’s High Low 9.06½ 9.24¼ 9.32¾ 9.33 8.58½ 8.77¼ 8.85 8.82¼ 9.28¾ 9.48¼ 9.58¼ 9.58½ 8.85 8.98 9.08 9.09 8.35 8.51½ 8.60 8.61¼ 9.09 9.25¼ 9.35 9.39½ Year ago 6.53¾ 6.61½ 6.70¼ 6.78 5.73 5.96 6.17¾ 6.33¼ 8.43 8.27¼ 8.09 7.98¼ High 9.92¼ 9.86½ 9.85 9.50 9.77¼ 9.82 9.72 9.47 10.34 10.34½ 10.19¼ 10.00 Season’s Low (05-26-11) (05-25-11) (05-25-11) (05-26-11) (05-26-11) (05-26-11) (05-26-11) (05-26-11) (07-23-12) (07-23-12) (07-01-12) (07-20-12) 6.50 6.64½ 6.74 6.80¼ 6.29½ 6.52 6.65 6.63 7.34 7.43 7.53½ 7.60 (05-11-12) (05-14-12) (05-11-12) (05-14-12) (05-14-12) (05-14-12) (05-14-12) (11-25-11) (05-14-12) (05-14-12) (05-11-12) (06-05-12)
D

Kansas City wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu
$10.50 $9.00 $7.50 $6.00 M J Previous Year S Current Year

Chicago wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu
$10.20 $8.60 $7.00 $5.40

Bulk middlings
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted N=Nominal Spot Kansas City 200 @ 210 Southwest, f.o.b. truck 240 @ 245 Minneapolis 214 @ 224 Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck 210 @ 220 Chicago West 227 @ 237 Central states, f.o.b truck 223 @ 233 Buffalo 205 @ 220 Southeast 190 @ 200 N. & S. California 234 @ 254 Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck 230 @ 250 Paciﬁc Northwest 245 @ 265 Upper Midwest, sacked 320 Wheat germ 290 @ 310 — Change from — Year Dec. Nov. 30 Nov. 23 ago 210@ 220 -10 @ -5 +30@ +30 205 @ 212 250@ 260 +5 @ +10 +40@ +40 225 @ 235 214@ 229 -5 @ -5 -5@ 0 187 @ 194 210@ 225 -5 @ -5 -5@ 0 183 @ 190 227@ 242 -5 @ -5 -5@ 0 200 @ 207 227@ 237 +5 @ +5 +15@ +15 200 @ 215 205@ 215 +10 @ +10 +15@ +15 175 @ 185 190@ 200 +5 @ +5 +30@ +30 180 @ 190 234@ 254 +2 @ +2 — 191 @ 211 230@ 250 +2 @ +2 — 187 @ 207 245@ 265 — -10@ -10 200 @ 210
D M J Previous Year S Current Year

Jan. Jan.-Mar. 190 @ 198 193@ 198 230 @ 240 233@ 243 214 @ 224 199@ 209 210 @ 220 195@ 205 227 @ 237 212@ 222 215 @ 225 206@ 216 185 @ 195 180@ 190 180 @ 190 160@ 170 229 @ 249 229@ 249 225 @ 245 225@ 245 245 @ 265 245@ 265

Minneapolis wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu
$10.50 $9.50 $8.50 $7.50 $6.50 D M J Previous Year S Current Year

44 / December 11, 2012 Milling & Baking News

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Milling & Baking News - December 11, 2012

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