Milling & Baking News - September 16, 2014 - 45


Soy Products
Soy flour prices ended lower last week
in keeping with declines in soybean
meal futures. Business was brisk. Bookings were two to three weeks forward.
As old crop futures contracts neared
expiration, new crop soybean and soybean meal futures prices moved relentlessly lower on convictions the 2014 crop
would be record large. The new crop November soybean contract moved through
support at $10 a bu last Tuesday and was
trading at multi-year lows. News of soybean export sales last week to China totaling 810,000 tonnes for 2014-15 and talk of
a possible frost in northern growing areas
failed to arrest tumbling futures prices.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture
September Crop Production and World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports projected an even larger
2014 crop and larger ending stocks than
expected. Soybean production was forecast at a record 3,913 million bus, up
3% from 3,816 million bus forecast in
August and up 19% from 3,289 million
bus last year. The forecast was above the
pre-report trade average of 3,882 million
bus. Average soybean yield was forecast
at a record 46.6 bus an acre, up 1.2 bus
per acre from August and up 3.3 bus per
acre from 43.3 bus an acre in 2013. Forecast harvested area was unchanged from
August but up 11% from 2013. Area was
forecast to be the largest on record.
U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1,
2015, was projected at 475 million bus, up
45 million bus, or 10%, from 430 million
bus projected in August and up 345 million bus, or 265%, from 130 million bus
estimated on Sept. 1, 2014. The U.S.D.A.
projection was above the trade average
forecast near 452 million bus. Soybean

Chicago corn and soy futures
Corn Futures
$ per bu
September
December
March
May
July
September
Soybeans
September
November
January
March
May
July
Soybean Meal
September
October
December
January
March
May

-7½
-17½
-17¾
-17½
-17½
-17½

-20
-26¼
-26¾
-26½
-26
-25

4.50
4.59
4.71½
4.79½
4.86¼
4.90¾

+5½
-36¼
-35¾
-36½
-35¾
-36¼

+1½
-39
-40
-42
-41
-39¼

14.88¾
13.81½
13.79¾
13.47¼
13.15
13.07

-28.10
-18.80
-21.20
-20.90
-20.00
-18.00

-31.50
-24.60
-22.80
-22.90
-22.90
-20.90

496.20
444.60
442.80
440.20
425.50
409.10

bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Corn Products
Cornmeal prices declined in sync with
lower corn futures. Demand for extruded products used in snacks was seasonally strong as football season entertaining began to build. Demand for brewers'
grits, which peaks during the summer,
was starting to soften. Interest in extending coverage surfaced as corn futures hit
four-year lows.
December corn futures, the front
month after Friday's expiration of the
old crop September contract, declined
last week amid continued confidence the
2014 crop would be one for the record
books. The market received fresh evidence Thursday that, despite a 4% yearover-year reduction in total harvested
acres, projected corn yields per acre and
overall production were even larger than
previous record predictions in August.
The U.S.D.A. in its Sept. 11 Crop Production report forecast U.S. 2014 corn
production at a record 14,395 million
bus, up 3% from 14,032 million bus forecast in August and up 3% from 13,925
million bus in 2013. The U.S.D.A. number was above the average pre-report
trade estimate of 14,310 million bus.
Based on Sept. 1 conditions, corn yield
was forecast at a record 171.7 bus an
acre, up 4.3 bus from August and up 12.9
bus per acre from 2013.
The U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1,
2015, was projected at 2,002 million bus,
up 194 million bus, or 11%, from August

and up 821 million bus, or 70%, from
1,181 million bus on Sept. 1, 2014. The
U.S.D.A.'s projection fell slightly below
the trade forecast of 2,004 million bus.
Corn supply was forecast at a record
15,607 million bus, up 2% from August
and up 6% from 2013-14, and total use
was forecast at a record 13,605 million
bus, up 1% from August and up just 5
million bus from 2013-14. Corn exports
were forecast at 1,750 million bus, up 25
million bus from August but down 175
million bus from 2013-14. Corn use for
ethanol was forecast at 5,125 million bus,
up 50 million bus from August and unchanged from 2013-14. MBN

Oats
Food-grade oat flakes prices were
steady. Sales were expected to build
as cooler weather typically boosts hot
breakfast cereal demand.
Despite sharp declines in other grain
prices, oats futures prices moved higher as the western Prairie provinces in
Canada experienced their first frost of
the season and wet conditions delayed
harvest. Sprouting affected oats in
Manitoba, the after-effects of a too-wet
growing season. Rail logistics remained
challenging, which also contributed to
firmer futures values. MBN

Rice
U.S. milled rice prices were unchanged while rice byproducts prices
were mixed, the U.S.D.A. said.
U.S. rice production was forecast at
218 million cwts, down 5% from August
but up 15% form 2013, the U.S.D.A. said
in its Sept. 11 Crop Production report.
Harvested area was reduced 4% from
August based on administrative data. MBN

Soy products

- Change from - Year
Sept. 5 Sept. 5 Aug. 29 ago
3.39
3.38½
3.51
3.59½
3.66¾
3.74¼
$ per bu
10.91
9.85¼
9.92½
9.98½
10.05¼
10.11
$ per ton
408.00
338.50
327.90
324.70
322.50
323.60

crush was projected at 1,770 million bus
in 2014-15, up 15 million bus from August and up 40 million bus from 2013-14.
Exports were projected at 1,700 million
bus, up 25 million bus from August and
up 55 million bus from 2013-14. MBN

Ingredient Week

Defatted, f.o.b. Midwest plant, $ per cwt
- Change from -
Sept. 12
Sept. 5
Aug. 29
Soy ﬂour
Bulk
35.10 @ 39.14 -.94@-1.00 +2.06 @+2.84
Sacked
36.10 @ 41.14 -.94@-1.00 +2.06 @+2.84

Rice
Oﬀers f.o.b. mills, $ per cwt, bagged

- Change from - Year
Cash
Sept. 12
Sept. 5 Aug. 29 ago
Long grain
25.00@28.50
-
-2.00 28.00
Medium grain 32.00@34.25
-
- 28.50
Parboiled
27.00@31.50
-
-1.50 30.50
Second
Corn meal
heads, bulk 22.00@25.00
-
- 18.50
$ per cwt
19.00@24.00
-
- 16.00
- Change from - Brewers
Sept. 12
Sept. 5
Aug. 29 f.o.b. mills, $ per ton
60.00
-5.00
- 60.00
Chicago, bulk
16.53@ 18.50 -.35@-.36 -.52@-.55 Rice millfeed
135@150
+5.00 +10.00 155.00
Chicago, sacked 18.30@ 20.27 -.35@-.36 -.52@-.55 Rice bran
30@35
+5.00 -10.00 20.00
New York, bulk 18.20@ 20.17 -.35@-.36 -.52@-.55 Rice hulls
New York, sacked 20.62@ 22.59 -.35@-.36 -.52@-.55 U.S.D.A. world price milled - $ per cwt
Long grain
18.60
-
- 18.53
Oats
Medium/short
18.02
-
- 18.16
- Change from - grain
Minneapolis
11.22
-
- 12.70
Sept. 12 Sept. 5 Aug. 29 Broken
C.B.O.T. rough rice futures - $ per cwt
Food grade ﬂakes, f.o.b.,
September
13.10
+0.62½ +0.41½ 16.15
bagged, $ per cwt
32.50@33.50
-
-.50
November
12.78½ +0.29½ +0.12 15.42
Milling quality oats, No. 2 heavy,
January
12.97½ +0.26½ +0.11½ 15.62
$ per bu
3.98¼
3¼c
-14c
Mar
13.17
+0.27 +0.13 15.86
Oat hulls, $ per ton
25@35
-
-
Milling & Baking News September 16, 2014 / 45

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Milling & Baking News - September 16, 2014

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