Milling & Baking News - December 6, 2016 - 21

Export and Trade Issues

Record large global exports of
wheat flour led by Turkey's peak
Continued from Page 1

forecast at 420,000 tonnes of wheat
equivalent in 2016-17, up from 400,000
in 2015-16 and 390,000 in 2014-15. This
raises the flour export prospect to
15,950,000 tonnes, against 15,600,000
in the previous season.
Primarily accounting for the export
flour gains was the thriving export
business of flour millers in Turkey.
In its latest report, the I.G.C. forecast
Turkey's flour exports in 2016-17 at 5.3
million tonnes in wheat equivalent,
up 350,000 from the projection of just
a quarter ago.
Accounting for nearly a third
(32.5%) of total trade in wheat flour,
the Turkey outgo would approach
being the largest amount of
flour ever exported by a single country in history. In
the aftermath of World War
II, U.S. mills responded to
emergency needs financed
by the U.S. government to
ship a peak of around 90 million cwts in a single year. The
wheat equivalent total forecast this
year for Turkey roughly equals between 85 million and 90 million cwts,
which is a remarkable achievement
for a nation that first exported flour
in 1984-85, shipping 7,000 tonnes
of wheat equivalent, and which did
not ship as much as 1 million tonnes
until 2004-05.
The I.G.C. cited "strong shipments
to Iraq and Syria" as accounting for
the dramatic increase in Turkey's
flour exports. Imports by Iraq from
all sources were forecast at 2.2 million tonnes, against 2 million in
2015-16 and 1,488,000 in 2014-15. Another Middle Eastern nation torn by
internal conflict, Syria, was forecast
to import 600,000 tonnes of flour in
wheat equivalent, up 100,000 from
the prior projection and 110,000 more
than actually taken in 2015-16. For the
entire Near East Asia, the I.G.C. indicated imports this crop year would
reach 3,490,000 tonnes, compared
with 3,170,000 tonnes in 2015-16 and
2,360,000 in 2014-15.
The flour import leader, by 100,000
tonnes, was Afghanistan. It was projected to import in 2016-17 a total of 2.3 million tonnes of wheat equivalent, about
the same as 2,231,000 in the prior year
and compared with 1,816,000 in 2014-15
It has been the world's leading flour importer in most of the 21st century.

Only one other country was forecast to import more than 1 million
tonnes of flour in 2016-17. This was
Uzbekistan, which is expected to take
1,250,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent
in 2016-17, against 1.2 million in 201516 and 1,137,000 in 2014-15. As part of
the Commonwealth of Independent
States, Uzbekistan was an important
contributor to total takings of 1.8 million tonnes by this group of nations.
These takings were closely in line with
the previous two seasons.
On a continental basis, Far East Asia
held the lead, with projected imports
in 2016-17 of 4,340,000 tonnes, against
4,210,000 in the previous season and
3,940,000 in 2014-15. Other than Afghanistan, no country in Far
East Asia took even as much
as 400,000 tonnes.
Imports by Africa this
season were projected at
2,610,000 tonnes, against
2,690,000 in the prior crop
year. Sub-Sahara countries account for most of that prospect,
at 2,490,000 tonnes, against 2,570,000
in 2015-16.
Both North and Central America
and South America are maintaining
their steady pace of flour imports. For
North America and Central America,
the Council projected flour imports totaling 910,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent, against 960,000 in 2015-16. South
American flour imports this season
were forecast at 780,000 tonnes, unchanged from the preceding crop year.
After Turkey's and Kazakhstan's
record-setting shipments, other exporters of wheat flour were showing
minor changes from the recent pace.
The European Union was once again
the only other exporter of at least 1
million tonnes of wheat flour in grain
equivalent, which compared with
965,000 tonnes in 2015-16 and 900,000
in 2014-15.
The next ranking exporter of wheat
flour will be Argentina in 2016-17,
moving a projected 760,000 tonnes,
against 717,000 in 2015-16.
Two countries - Ukraine and Pakistan - are seen as tying as shippers,
each of 500,000 tonnes of flour in
wheat equivalent. The United States,
which in earlier decades was the ranking exporter of flour, was seen as likely
to ship only 435,000 tonnes this season,
about the same as 440,000 shipped in
2015-16. MBN

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Milling & Baking
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Milling & Baking News - December 6, 2016

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