Milling & Baking News - May 23, 2017 - 20

Data X

Per capita flour consumption down
again in 2016; lowest since 1989
in estimated 2016 flour production
by the U.S.D.A. shaved more than
half a pound from the per capita estimate. The U.S.D.A. lowered estimated flour production to 423,703,000
cwts from a preliminary estimate of
425,406,000 cwts. At the larger figure, per capita consumption would
have been 132.2 lbs.
Flour imports in 2016 were up
from the year before, at 15,058,000
cwts, versus 14,758,000 cwts in
2015. Still, the 300,000-cwt increase
in imports as a consumption boost
was more than offset by an increase
in flour exports of 984,000 cwts, to
7,360,000 cwts.
The flour import figure was a new
record high (beating the previous
record set in 2015). The flour export
total for 2016 was the largest since

2001, when flour exports totaled
10,507,000 cwts.
Semolina, pasta, bulgur and couscous exports totaled 2,938,000 cwts in
2016, down from 3,565,000 cwts a year

Per capita flour consumption
153
141
in lbs

Continued from Page 1

129
117
105
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

Wheat supply,
disappearance
- (million bus) -
2017-18* 2016-17* 2015-16
Supply
Carry-in
Crop
Imports
Total

2014-15

1,159
1,820
125
3,105

976
2,310
115
3,400

752
2,062
113
2,927

590
2,026
151
2,768

Domestic use
Food
955
Seed
66
Feed
170
Total
1,191

955
61
190
1,206

957
67
152
1,177

958
79
114
1,151

Exports

1,000

1,035

775

864

Total use

2,191

2,241

1,952

2,015

914

1,159

976

752

Ending stocks

*forecast
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

20 / May 23, 2017 XMilling & Baking News

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Source: Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service

U.S.D.A. sees wheat carryover
shrinking 245 million bus in 2017-18
WASHINGTON - In its initial
wheat supply-and-demand forecasts
for 2017-18, the U.S. Department of
Agriculture on May 10 projected the
carryover of wheat on June 1, 2018,
at 914 million bus, down 245 million
bus, or 21%, from 1,159 million bus
as the forecast for the current year.
Additionally, the U.S.D.A. made

earlier. All told, domestic disappearance
of flour in 2016 was 428,463,000 cwts,
down 1,263,000 cwts from 2015 and
down from 429,843,000 cwts in 2014.
The per capita consumption figure was calculated based on a 2016
calendar-year average population
figure of 325,487,000, up 0.8% from
322,997,000 in 2015. MBN

minor adjustments to its all-wheat
and wheat by-class supply-and-demand forecasts for 2016-17.
The U.S.D.A. forecast all-wheat
production in 2017 at 1,820 million
bus, down 490 million bus, or 21%,
from 2,310 million bus in 2016. The
U.S.D.A. commented, "The year-toyear decline is due to a sharp reduction in planted area and projected
lower yields. The all-wheat yield is
projected at 47.2 bus per acre, down
10% from last year 's record."
In forecasting 2017 all-wheat production, the U.S.D.A. considered its
initial survey-based winter wheat
production forecast for 2017 at 1,246
million bus and a combined spring
wheat and durum production forecast of 574 million bus, based on
spring wheat and durum planted
area forecasts as indicated in the
Prospective Plantings report issued
at the end of March, average abandonment and trendline yields. The
U.S.D.A. noted the combined spring
wheat and durum production for
2017 was projected to decline 10%
from 2016.
The U.S.D.A. forecast wheat imports in 2017-18 at 125 million bus,
up 10 million bus from the current
year.
The total 2017-18 wheat supply

was forecast at 3,105 million bus,
down 295 million bus, or 9%, from a
revised 3,400 million bus in 2016-17.
Wheat disappearance in 2017-18
was forecast at 2,191 million bus,
down 50 million bus from 2,241 million bus as the forecast for 2016-17.
Food use of wheat in 2017-18
was forecast at 955 million bus, the
same as the forecast for the current
year. Seed use of wheat in 2017-18
was forecast at 66 million bus, up
5 million bus from 2016-17. Feed
and residual use of wheat in 201718 was forecast at 170 million bus,
down 20 million from the forecast
for 2016-17.
The U.S.D.A. forecast 2017-18
wheat exports at 1,000 million bus,
down from 1,035 million bus as the
forecast for the current year.
The average farm price of wheat in
2017-18 was forecast at $3.85@4.65 a
bu compared with $3.90 a bu as the
estimate for 2016-17.
The U.S.D.A. will issue its first
2017-18 wheat supply-and-demand
forecasts by class in its July World
Agricultural Supply and Demand
report.
While the U.S.D.A. made no
change in its forecast for the 2017
all-wheat carryover, it did make
some minor adjustments from April.
The U.S.D.A. raised its 2016-17
wheat imports forecast by 5 million
bus, to 115 million bus. This resulted in a 5-million-bu increase in the
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - May 23, 2017

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - May 23, 2017