Milling & Baking News - August 1, 2017 - 16

Business X

Spring wheat harvest gains speed;
winter wheat harvest winds down
KANSAS CITY - The 2017 winter
wheat harvest was nearing its end.
Most of the wheat left to be combined was in the northern Plains,
in the case of the hard red winter
wheat, and in Michigan, in the case
of soft red winter wheat. The spring
wheat harvest was under way in
South Dakota and was expected to
expand soon into the rest of the Upper Midwest.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture indicated the hard red winter
wheat harvest was completed in
Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas by
July 23 and 93% completed in Nebraska, 90% in Colorado, 72% in
South Dakota (46% as the recent
five-year average for the date) and
39% in Montana (14%). Drought
gripped South Dakota, and acreage
abandonment was expected to be
high in that state with some wheat
already baled for hay.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its annual Acreage report
issued at the end of June forecast
the South Dakota winter wheat area
abandonment rate at 32% based on
plantings of 950,000 acres and a
harvested area forecast at 650,000
acres. In 2016, the South Dakota
winter wheat abandonment rate
was 7% based on a planted area of
1,180,000 acres and a harvested area
of 1,100,000 acres.
In its July Production report, the
U.S.D.A. forecast hard red winter wheat production this year at
757,521,000 bus, down 30% from
1,081,690,000 bus in 2016. The 2017
crop as currently forecast would be
the smallest since 739 million bus
in 2014. The 2016 crop was the largest since 1998. The recent five-year
average hard red winter wheat outturn was 879 million bus.
Grain merchants and millers emphasized there will be no bushel
shortage for hard red winter wheat
in 2017-18. Rather, as was the case
last year, there will be a shortage of
protein in the bushels available to
the market.
From the beginning of the harvest
in southern Texas, protein levels of
2017 hard red winter wheat have
been reported low. As combines
worked their way northward into
Oklahoma and Kansas, the market eagerly awaited word of rising
protein levels, but that wasn't to
16 / August 1, 2017 XMilling & Baking News

be. Yields fell short of last year 's
records across most growing areas,
but protein hovered near last year 's
depressed averages.
The Nebraska harvest also turned
out mostly low-protein wheat even
as test weights were good. Joe
Christopher of Crossroads Commodities, Sidney, Neb., indicated
test weight of wheat in his area was
good, around 60 lbs to 61 lbs per bu,
but protein was low, even if not as
low as last year. He indicated 60%
of the wheat brought in to local elevators in his territory had protein
under 10%. Last year, 70% of the
wheat brought in had protein under
10%. Wheat harvested to the east of

crop were averaging 60.1 lbs per bu
compared with 60.7 lbs in 2016. The
average grade was No. 1 hard red
winter, the same as in 2016.
The U.S.D.A./Agricultural Marketing Service Hard Winter Wheat
Quality Lab, Manhattan, Kas., and
Prairie Grains, Inc. collected and
analyzed the samples reported by
U.S. Wheat Associates. The samples
were drawn from grain elevators
when at least 30% of the local harvest was completed in each of the
hard winter wheat states.
While valuing the data provided
through this annual survey, some
millers and grain merchants voiced
concern that the methods employed
by the U.S.D.A. and Prairie Grains
in determining the crop's average protein, depending on elevator
samples, may overstate the actual

Spring wheat conditions
(percentage rated good-to-excellent in week 27)
100%

North Dakota

90%

South Dakota

Montana

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Source: U.S.D.A., Economic Research Service using the U.S.D.A., National Agricultural Statistics
Service's Quickstats database

Sidney had higher protein, but
much of this wheat was damaged
from wheat streak mosaic and had
low test weight.
Because excessively dry conditions stress wheat, which often results in higher protein levels, there
were hopes South Dakota wheat
may have stronger protein, but the
South Dakota crop will be much
smaller this year than in 2016.
U.S. Wheat Associates in its July
21 harvest report indicated, on the
basis of 354 of 530 expected samples,
2017 hard red winter wheat was averaging 11.2% in protein, equal to
the 2016 crop average. In contrast,
the 2015 crop average protein was
12.3%, and the 2014 crop average
was 13.3%. Test weights in the 2017

protein average of the crop in certain years. They said many producers last year and this year retained
their lowest-protein supply on
the farm. This wheat was not represented in the samples taken by
U.S.D.A./Prairie Grains. As a result, the 2016 crop average protein
likely was lower than that reported
in the harvest summary for that
year, and this year 's protein average likely will be lower than what
will be reported for this year, they
said. In 2016-17, much of the very
low-protein supply was used as
feed with some train loads of such
wheat even exported as feed from
the Great Plains to Mexico.
One miller said the industry's
concern was the quality of wheat
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