Milling & Baking News - November 25, 2014 - 40

Weather Outlook 

Wheat struggles in inclement
weather across United States, Russia
BY DREW LERNER

A very large cold airmass pushed
through North America in the middle part of November bringing arctic
air into the U.S. Plains and Midwest
while wheat was still being planted
and emerging. Temperatures were cold
enough to stop crop development, and
there was enough cold in some locations to raise winterkill potentials while
the biggest concern was over the lack
of emergence and poor establishment.
A similar situation occurred because of
dryness in parts of Russia, Ukraine and
Belarus, while Australia's production
was cut by dryness and frost.
The autumn season in the Northern
Hemisphere started out looking good
with timely rainfall in the U.S. Plains
and Midwest, as well as parts of the
former Soviet Union. Conditions in
both regions deteriorated this autumn,
and all of sudden what looked like a
favorable production year suddenly
has turned toward one of concern.
The problems started when the rain

in Ukraine, southwestern Russia and
Belarus ceased during the early to
middle part of autumn. Rainfall that
had been timely in the early planting
weeks of August and early September
gradually tapered off, and many crop
areas in the western Commonwealth
of Independent States (C.I.S.) were not
establishing well. By the time late October arrived crops were struggling,
although most had emerged and still
had favorable production potential
if it would have rained. However,
instead of raining the region turned
much colder and crops were pushed
40 / November 25, 2014 Milling & Baking News

into dormancy without being as well
established as they needed to be to
avoid crop damage during bouts of
bitter cold this winter.
Cold temperatures in Ukraine and
Russia probably did not come with
much winterkill, but there was no
snow on the ground and temperatures turned bitterly cold in some areas much earlier than usual. The cold
then abated, and as warming evolved
the concern over crop damage relaxed,
but it still had not rained or snowed
significantly as of mid-November. The
lack of moisture and seasonably cool
temperatures left crops in a dormant
or semi-dormant state, minimizing the
need for moisture, but leaving many
wheat and rye crops poorly established and still vulnerable to extreme
winter weather conditions.
Snow cover is imperative during
the coldest times of winter this year
to protect the poorly established crops
from possible damage. A significant
rain event was advertised for western and southcentral Ukraine
in the Nov. 18-20
period. Some of
the moisture was
expected to bring
significant relief
to dryness not
only in those regions in Ukraine,
but in neighboring
Moldova
and eastern Romania,
which
also had trended
drier than usual
in recent weeks.
The
moisture
boost will shrink
the large region
in the western
CIS suffering from dryness, but crops
will not be able to respond to the moisture until spring due to their dormant
or semi-dormant status.
World Weather, Inc. believes the
Russia, Belarus and Ukraine crops
have sufficient root systems to improve during the spring, and the production cuts because of poor establishment could be minimized. However, it
is imperative that significant precipitation falls soon and that crops become
deeply buried in snow to protect that
potentiality. Otherwise, harsh conditions during the winter will raise the

prospect of crop losses by winterkill.
Conditions in the United States
seemed quite good in October. Timely
rain was falling across parts of the hard
red winter wheat region and temperatures were warm. The environment
was supporting wheat planting, emergence and establishment - much better than in the previous year or two of
drought. However, the warmer-thanusual temperatures induced quick
drying between rain events, and the
region never got a good soaking to
last very long, and moisture was still a
little low. Timely rains were still occurring right up to early November, and
relief was occurring to support much
improved planting, emergence and
establishment conditions. But then,
everything came roaring to a halt as
bitter cold air moved across the Plains
and Midwest.
Temperatures during a 10-day period in mid-November were 20 to 40
degrees Fahrenheit colder than average in parts of the Great Plains and 10
to 20 degrees below normal in the soft
wheat production areas of the Midwest. Soil temperatures plummeted
and brought most wheat growth to a
halt. Daily high and low temperatures
were colder than usual for mid-January let alone mid-November.
Snow fell across many areas in the
northern Plains and upper Midwest
early in the cold surge, but moisture in
the atmosphere ran low when the coldest air reached hard red winter wheat
country. Temperatures slipped near
and below zero degrees Fahrenheit as
far south as northwestern Kansas and
eastern Colorado. Snow cover was not
significant, and concern rose over the
potential winterkill developed in the
snow free areas. Some of the concern
was a byproduct of the lack of snow
cover, extreme temperatures near and
slightly below zero, and poor winter
crop established due to recent dryness.
These factors combined to raise market worry about crop conditions soon
after the worry about Russia, Ukraine
and Belarus had reached a climax.
Winterkill may have occurred since
temperatures prior to the cold surge
were well above average and crops
were not adequately hardened to
withstand the cold.
The biggest issues may not be over
winterkill in the U.S. Plains, but more
because of the poor crop emergence
and establishment. The cold came
rushing across the Canada border and
poured into the Plains and Midwest
so quickly that crops had little time to
harden, but were quickly pushed into
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - November 25, 2014

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - November 25, 2014