Corporate Profiles - 2024 - 32

GRAIN-BASED FOODS
Meat and Poultry
Low cattle numbers cut into processors' profits
A
shrinking number of cattle in the United States adversely
affected beef processors in 2024. After beef production
reached 28,291 million lbs in 2022, it fell to 26,967 million
lbs in 2023, according to the Economic Research Service (ERS) of
the US Department of Agriculture. The ERS in September forecast
production at 26,795 million lbs in 2024 and projected production
at 25,625 million lbs in 2025.
Beef processors faced the likelihood of losses in 2024. Tyson
Foods, Springdale, Ark., in July projected an operating loss of $100
million to $400 million in its Beef business unit in the fiscal year
ended Sept. 30. Through the first six months of the fiscal year, the
Beef business had an operating loss of $241 million.
Brady Stewart, president of the beef and pork segment and chief
supply officer for Tyson Foods, spoke about the beef supply situation
Sept. 5 at the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference. He said
cow liquidation has " basically ceased, " which provided some stability.
" And after every cycle we've seen in the past, the next step is
certainly to have heifer retention, " Stewart said. " That's what we
continue to look for. "
Imports provided some relief. US beef imports in July totaled 403
million lbs, the second-largest monthly import level behind January
of this year, according to the ERS. Imports from Brazil in July were
up 186% year over year. Import increases also came from Australia,
up 48%, and Uruguay, more than triple the amount from July 2023.
The ERS gave more positive numbers for pork, forecasting production
in 2024 at 28,053 million lbs, up from 27,302 million lbs
in 2023, and projecting 2025 production at 28,505 million lbs.
The ERS expected pork production of about 6.8 billion lbs in the
third quarter of 2024, which would be 4% higher than the third
quarter of 2023. Hog prices in 2024 were projected to average
UNITED STATES
red meat and poultry production and disappearance
PRODUCTION
million lbs
2021
Beef
Pork
Broilers
Turkeys
27,948
27,675
44,899
5,558
2022
28,291
26,996
46,206
5,222
2023
26,967
27,302
46,387
5,457
2024* 2025**
26,795
28,053
47,109
5,130
25,625
28,505
47,675
5,175
Total red meat
and poultry 106,328 106,975 106,880 107,834 107,740
Source: US Department of Agriculture
PER CAPITA DISAPPEARANCE
retail lbs
Beef
Pork
Broilers
Turkeys
Total red meat
and poultry
2021
58.9
51.1
96.5
15.3
224.8
2022
59.1
51.1
98.9
14.6
226.8
2023
58.1
50.2
99.5
14.8
225.4
2024* 2025**
58.6
50.9
56.7
51.2
102.0
13.9
228.5
102.5
13.8
227.3
*forecast **projected
about $59 per cwt in 2024, about 1% higher than in 2023, but
the ERS projected the price to decline to $58 per cwt in 2025,
expecting weakness in the first half of 2025 as pork prices decline
to maintain competitiveness.
In poultry, broiler production was forecast at 47,109 million lbs
in 2024, an increase of 1.6% from 2023. Projected production for
2025 was 47,675 million lbs.
RaboResearch, a business of Rabobank, gave a bullish outlook
on the global poultry market in September, forecasting growth of
2.5% to 3% in 2024.
Global poultry markets are performing well due to lower production
costs and solid demand recovery in most markets, according
to RaboResearch.
" Poultry's strong price position against other proteins in most markets,
along with strong retail demand, recovering foodservice demand, and rising
sustainability strategies that support chicken demand, are supporting
rapid growth, " said Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst of animal protein at
RaboResearch, who added animal diseases, including highly pathogenic
avian influenza, and geopolitical tensions are wild cards.
The ERS in September estimated chicken production to increase to
52.5 billion lbs in 2023 from 47.5 billion lbs in 2022, although the
projection assumed no more outbreaks of animal disease, a continuation
of existing US and global policies and trade agreements, normal
weather patterns, and specific macroeconomic conditions. The ERS
predicted prices for major poultry products to become stable over the
next decade as disease-mitigation efforts are implemented.
PLANT CLOSES AFTER LISTERIA OUTBREAK
A food safety issue cropped up in 2024. Boar's Head, Sarasota,
Fla., planned to " indefinitely close " its plant in Jarratt, Va., which
32 \ October 2024
Milling & Baking News * Food Business News * Baking & Snack * Meat+Poultry * Dairy Processing * Pet Food Processing
Corporate Profiles
INDUSTRY REVIEW: meat and poultry
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Corporate Profiles - 2024

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