Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 22
Pecking orders
The US poultry industry is looking for profit in 2012
BY RICHARD LOBB
meatpoultry@sosland.com
A
fter a brutal year in 2011, when the chicken industry lost mon-
Aho thinks the industry could be profitable by the spring, and some observers are even more optimistic. “The fi rst quarter of 2012 will be the first good, solid profit we have had in four quarters,” says Bill Roenigk, chief economist for the National Chicken Council. Looking deeper into the year, he predicts: “All companies should be turning a profit for the first three quarters, at least.” The reason for their optimism is simply production cutbacks that went into effect in the fall of 2011 are expected to carry into 2012, reducing the industry’s need for expensive corn and soybean meal and coming closer to matching actual consumer demand in an economy still mired in slow growth.
“Corn prices will go down and chicken prices will go up if there is any cut in production at all,” Aho says. “Any cut whatsoever will do the trick.” The US Dept. of Agriculture is predicting that broiler production in 2012 will be about 2 percent less than in 2011, while turkey production will increase slightly. Aho and Roenigk both figure the broiler drop-off will be closer to 4 percent. Bill Lovette, CEO of Pilgrim’s Pride Corp., Greeley, Colo., thinks the lower level of production for the industry as a whole should remain in place through the first half of the year – down as much as 6 percent compared to 2011. The back half of the year could be about level
ey by bucket loads, broiler industry executives are looking forward to something different in 2012: sustained profit. After all, the alternative is nearly unthinkable.
“All companies should be turning a profit for the first three quarters, at least.”
“There’s only one direction it can go,” says Paul Aho, a consulting economist in Storrs, Conn., who tracks the chicken industry closely. “Either the entire industry goes bankrupt, or it gets better.”
22
• Meat&Poultry • January 2012 • www.MeatPoultry.com
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Meat&Poultry - January 2012
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Meat&Poultry - January 2012
Meat&Poultry - January, 2012
Contents
Commentary - Oozing optimism
Business notes - QSRs stop using ammonium hydroxide technology for beef
Business notes - Cargill to use HPP, resumes ground turkey processing
Business notes - Farbest to build new turkey plant in Indiana
Business notes - Seaboard Foods names new president, CEO
Business notes - Land O’Frost to acquire Wimmer’s Meats
Business notes - Hormel executive announces retirement
Business notes - Danish Crown appoints chairman, deputy chairman
Business notes - Sara Lee to expand Missouri plant
Washington - Regulatory hurdles ahead
2012 Industry Outlook - A pivotal year
2012 Outlook - Pecking orders
2012 Outlook - Where’s the beef?
2012 Outlook - Mining for global gold
2012 Outlook - Regulatory roadblocks
Farm-to-Fork - Grass-based growth
Turkey processing - Beyond the belly
Food Safety - Use judiciously
Traceability - Nature’s bar codes
Packaging - Waste not, want not
Ingredient Solutions - Sizing up sea salt
Conference Previews - Focused on Education
Names in the News
New Product Showcase
Classified Advertising
Advertisers
The Insider
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Meat&Poultry - January, 2012
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 2
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 3
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Contents
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 5
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 6
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 7
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Commentary - Oozing optimism
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 9
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Business notes - QSRs stop using ammonium hydroxide technology for beef
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 11
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Business notes - Farbest to build new turkey plant in Indiana
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 13
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Business notes - Seaboard Foods names new president, CEO
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Business notes - Land O’Frost to acquire Wimmer’s Meats
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Business notes - Sara Lee to expand Missouri plant
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 17
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Washington - Regulatory hurdles ahead
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 19
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 2012 Industry Outlook - A pivotal year
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 21
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 2012 Outlook - Pecking orders
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 23
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 24
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 25
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 2012 Outlook - Where’s the beef?
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 27
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 28
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 29
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 30
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 31
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 2012 Outlook - Mining for global gold
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 33
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 34
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 35
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 36
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 37
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 38
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 2012 Outlook - Regulatory roadblocks
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 40
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 41
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 42
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 43
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Farm-to-Fork - Grass-based growth
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 45
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 46
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 47
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Turkey processing - Beyond the belly
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 49
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 50
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 51
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 52
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 53
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Food Safety - Use judiciously
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 55
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 56
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 57
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 58
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 59
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Traceability - Nature’s bar codes
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 61
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 62
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 63
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 64
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 65
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 66
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Packaging - Waste not, want not
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 68
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 69
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 70
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 71
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 72
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 73
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Ingredient Solutions - Sizing up sea salt
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 75
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 76
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 77
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Conference Previews - Focused on Education
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 79
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Names in the News
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - New Product Showcase
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 82
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 83
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Classified Advertising
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 85
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 86
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 87
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 88
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Advertisers
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - The Insider
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 91
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 92
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