Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 30
RED MEAT OUTLOOK
head, although private forecasts were closer to 91 million head. Adding in Canada’s numbers, the North American herd has declined 3.65 million head in the past three years.
Broiler production poised to fall
USDA also forecasts that broiler production in 2012 will decline more than 2 percent and that per-capita supplies will be 79.6 lbs., down from 83.0 lbs. in 2011. This leaves pork as the only major protein likely to experience larger production and larger available sup-
Live cattle prices in 2011 were up 20 percent from 2010 and will increase 4.5 percent to 11.5 percent this year, says USDA.
the same week this year would put the cutout at $227.86. Packers will need such an increase if they are to have positive margins in 2012, due to another big increase in cattle costs. Live cattle prices in 2011 were up 20 percent from 2010 and will increase 4.5 percent to 11.5 percent this year, says USDA. It forecasts prices to average $120-128 per cwt, vs. $114.85 in 2011. One reason for the price increase is the ongoing decline in US cattle numbers. The national herd shrank in 2011 for the fi fth straight year. USDA forecast that the Jan. 1, 2012, herd total would be 91.45 million
plies this year. Production is forecast at 23.134 billion lbs., vs. 22.753 billion lbs. in 2011. Supplies are forecast at 46.2 lbs. per person versus 45.7 lbs. Exports were a huge factor in 2011 being a profitable year for pork processors and hog producers, as they represented 22.5 percent of production. USDA has exports this year flat with last. But they will continue to play an important role. China, as with beef, might prove to be the wild card if it continues to buy US pork at the pace it did in 2011. At home, pork will continue to provide Americans with a cheaper alternative to beef, even though retail prices will likely be record high. Consumers showed signs of chicken “fatigue” in 2011, one reason why retail and wholesale prices were flat and why poultry processors were forced to cut production. But whether consumers are willing or able to keep paying higher prices for beef and pork is the key issue facing the red meat industry this year. ■
Steve Kay is editor and publisher of Petaluma, Calif.-based Cattle Buyers Weekly (www. cattlebuyersweekly.com). We would like to hear from you – to comment on this story or to request reprints, contact us by e-mail at: meatpoultry@sosland.com.
Pork is the only major protein likely to experience larger production and larger available supplies this year.
30
• Meat&Poultry • January 2012 • www.MeatPoultry.com
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Meat&Poultry - January 2012
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Meat&Poultry - January 2012
Meat&Poultry - January, 2012
Contents
Commentary - Oozing optimism
Business notes - QSRs stop using ammonium hydroxide technology for beef
Business notes - Cargill to use HPP, resumes ground turkey processing
Business notes - Farbest to build new turkey plant in Indiana
Business notes - Seaboard Foods names new president, CEO
Business notes - Land O’Frost to acquire Wimmer’s Meats
Business notes - Hormel executive announces retirement
Business notes - Danish Crown appoints chairman, deputy chairman
Business notes - Sara Lee to expand Missouri plant
Washington - Regulatory hurdles ahead
2012 Industry Outlook - A pivotal year
2012 Outlook - Pecking orders
2012 Outlook - Where’s the beef?
2012 Outlook - Mining for global gold
2012 Outlook - Regulatory roadblocks
Farm-to-Fork - Grass-based growth
Turkey processing - Beyond the belly
Food Safety - Use judiciously
Traceability - Nature’s bar codes
Packaging - Waste not, want not
Ingredient Solutions - Sizing up sea salt
Conference Previews - Focused on Education
Names in the News
New Product Showcase
Classified Advertising
Advertisers
The Insider
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Meat&Poultry - January, 2012
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 2
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 3
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Contents
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 5
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 6
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 7
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Commentary - Oozing optimism
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 9
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Business notes - QSRs stop using ammonium hydroxide technology for beef
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 11
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Business notes - Farbest to build new turkey plant in Indiana
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 13
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Business notes - Seaboard Foods names new president, CEO
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Business notes - Land O’Frost to acquire Wimmer’s Meats
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Business notes - Sara Lee to expand Missouri plant
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 17
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Washington - Regulatory hurdles ahead
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 19
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 2012 Industry Outlook - A pivotal year
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 21
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 2012 Outlook - Pecking orders
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 23
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 24
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 25
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 2012 Outlook - Where’s the beef?
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 27
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 28
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 29
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 30
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 31
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 2012 Outlook - Mining for global gold
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 33
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 34
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 35
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 36
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 37
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 38
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 2012 Outlook - Regulatory roadblocks
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 40
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 41
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 42
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 43
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Farm-to-Fork - Grass-based growth
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 45
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 46
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 47
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Turkey processing - Beyond the belly
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 49
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 50
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 51
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 52
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 53
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Food Safety - Use judiciously
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 55
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 56
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 57
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 58
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 59
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Traceability - Nature’s bar codes
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 61
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 62
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 63
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 64
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 65
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 66
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Packaging - Waste not, want not
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 68
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 69
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 70
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 71
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 72
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 73
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Ingredient Solutions - Sizing up sea salt
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 75
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 76
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 77
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Conference Previews - Focused on Education
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 79
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Names in the News
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - New Product Showcase
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 82
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 83
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Classified Advertising
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 85
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 86
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 87
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 88
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - Advertisers
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - The Insider
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 91
Meat&Poultry - January 2012 - 92
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