Meat&Poultry - September 2012 - 8

Commentary
BY MORTON SOSLAND
meatpoultry@sosland.com

Corn's centrality accelerates
Before the drought devastated this year’s corn crop prospects, the season was on the verge of becoming the first in which the supply of a single crop, this grain, surpassed 1 billion tonnes. That prospect served as the basis for examining the different paths that have emerged in recent years for two grains — wheat and corn. For a world of 7 billion people, having a supply of corn totaling 1 billion tonnes is not just hugely important from the standpoint of food sufficiency, but it also marks a great milestone in the evolution of the modern-day food industry. Until the first decade of the 21st century, it hardly seemed realistic to anticipate that any grain would reach the billion-tonne mark in the near future. Forecasts that corn would reach this mark among grains began right after World War II. As the basic grain used for feeding livestock and poultry, corn appeared destined to experience explosive growth. That was especially the case when comparisons were made with the primary food grain, wheat, where forecasts pointed to moderate use gains tied to population. The meat forecast stemmed from improving living standards that often meant consumption gains and spiraling growth in corn use. As late as 2000-01, the global supply of wheat, at 787 million tonnes, still exceeded the global supply of corn, at 771 million. It was not until 2003-04 that the corn total fi rst exceeded wheat, with respective aggregates of 755 million and 723 million. But in the past decade corn’s leaderWe would like to hear from you – to comment on this story or to request reprints, contact us by email at meatpoultry@sosland.com. Morton Sosland is the editor-in-chief of Milling & Baking News, a sister publication to Meat&Poultry.

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ship has accelerated, to the point that with the supply near 1 billion tonnes, corn exceeds wheat by nearly 150 million tonnes. A great boost in corn use has been provided by its exploding industrial use, primarily for making ethanol in the US. Global industrial use has climbed from 76 million tonnes at the start of the 21st century to the latest forecast for 2011-12 of 249 million tonnes. Meanwhile, feed utilization of corn is soaring. From 318 million tonnes in 1990-91 to 474 million at the start of the 21st century, feed use of corn grew faster than most other demand elements. That has continued apace in the new century, approaching 500 million currently, propelled on this abrupt upward path by feeding in China. The International Grains Council relays China this year will use, for the fi rst time, more corn for animal feed than the US. China is expected to feed 132 million tonnes of corn, compared with the US use of 112 million. This reversal in the Chinese and US feeding totals is one of the trends in global grain consumption that poses few difficulties about looking to the future. Even with this summer’s setbacks, the forecast of corn’s domination fi rst made more than half a century ago is being realized. ■

Kimberlie Clyma
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