MEAT+POULTRY - January 2015 - 44

MARKET OUTLOOK 2015

"Chicken and
pork were star
performers
for meat
processing
companies in
2014."

increasing 3.0 percent and turkey production
increasing 3.2 percent, it says.
Consumers in 2015 will thus continue to eat
more chicken and pork - and less beef. That's
not because of price but because of availability
of those proteins. USDA forecasts that beef
disappearance will be 52.2 lbs. per person,
versus 54.1 lbs. last year. Consumers will eat
an average 85.3 lbs. of chicken, up from 83.4
lbs. in 2014, and 46.6 lbs. of pork, up from 45.3
lbs. the previous year. Turkey consumption will
edge up to 15.8 lbs. per person from 15.7 lbs.,
and lamb and mutton consumption will remain
unchanged at 0.9 lbs. per person.
Chicken and pork were the star performers
for meat processors in 2014 and will be strong
profit centers again this coming year. Conversely,
beef profits will be smaller. Fed-beef processors
have just come off their toughest fourth quarter
in years, with operating margins negative by $80
per head at times. The first quarter might be a
repeat of this, as occurred in 2012's first quarter.

CHICKEN PRODUCTION CLIMBING
Chicken production this year will be 39.63
billion lbs., up 1.146 billion lbs. from 2014,
USDA says. The average national price of a
wholesale broiler will decline marginally to
$1.00 to $1.08 per lb. from $1.05 per lb. in
2014. Broiler exports will be 7.400 billion
lbs. versus 7.319 billion lbs. in 2014. USDA
assumes that Russia's ban on US poultry last
August will remain in place for one year,
it says. But it notes the ban led to large
increases in exports to Asian, former Soviet
Union, Middle Eastern and Sub-Saharan
African markets, which mostly offset the
Russian ban.
Poultry processors around the country
should have another banner year. Tyson Foods
in its fiscal 2014 had an operating income for
chicken of $883 million versus $683 million
in 2013. Sales were $11.116 billion versus
$10.988 billion for the year. So, the operating
margin was 6.2 percent. Due to the relative

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44

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MEAT+POULTRY - January 2015

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