Meat + Poultry - July 2016 - 98

SEMINAR SUMMARY

BEEF, PORK GROWTH
On the red meat side, after domestic meat
supplies were at a 23-year low in 2014, animal
herds are now growing, according to Scott
Brown, research assistant professor in the
Dept. of Agricultural
"As we have more and more and Applied Economics
companies announce they're at the Univ. of Missouri.
Brown shared his
moving toward antibiotic
thoughts and industry
analysis with attendees
free, you'll have operations
of the protein
that will be moving toward
breakout session at the
that (lower) bird-rate range Purchasing Seminar
June 6.
rather than 9- to 10-lb.
"There's more cattle
chickens." - ERIC SCHOLER
and pork on the market
and I think we're set for production to continue
to expand for the next couple of years," Brown
explained. "The cattle industry has already
started that process. It's a much different
situation than back in 2014."
Between 2014 and 2015, boxed beef

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wholesale meat prices gained $54 (up 27
percent) in eight months, then lost $59 (down
23 percent) in seven months. "That volatility
was unprecedented in the industry," Brown
said. As for pork in that same timeframe, pork
wholesale prices gained $47 (up 54 percent) in
six months, then lost $66 (down 49 percent) in
eight months.
"There were different reasons that we saw
those things happen in the meat industry. PEDv
certainly helped the hog industry see record
high prices, and at the same time, I'd say
weather and drought in particular set in place
what happened in the cattle industry," Brown
explained. "All those things were happening at
the same time to get us in very tight supplies."
Like with poultry, average slaughter
weights for hogs and cattle continue to get
bigger year after year. "I remember in the late
80s thinking that the beef box couldn't get any
bigger, but it has," Brown said. "We've been
growing weights year after year - it's why we
can produce the same amount of beef today
with a lot fewer beef cows."
And there's more beef on the
way. Brown predicts that for the
remainder of 2016 and in 2017
there will be 200 to 250 million lbs.
more of beef a quarter. "There's
going to be more beef, more pork,
more chicken, more turkey..."
Brown said. "And more domestic
supplies in the near future mean
that you and I get to eat more beef,
pork and chicken."
In the export market, Brown
explained that there is a direct
correlation between the strength
of the US dollar and the country's
ability to participate in world
markets. "As long as that dollar
stays strong I think we have more
growth in front of us."
But there are no guarantees,
Brown said. "There are all kinds
of uncertainties in the beef and
pork market" - future disease
and changing weather, to name
a couple. "Even though meat
production growth looks to
continue for the next few years,
we're not done with volatility in
the market yet."
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Meat + Poultry - July 2016

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