World Grain - March 2012 - 45

FEATURE: AFGHANISTAN’S WHEAT POTENTIAL

respectively, and wheat output would increase to 4.6 million tonnes in 2020. Still, growth in domestic wheat production would not keep pace with demand, and imports would continue to rise by 5.2% per year. By 2020, about 46% of Afghanistan’s wheat demand would be met by imports, the ERS said, compared to 38% in the base period. In the second scenario, prices, income and consumption would remain the same as in the ﬁrst scenario. This scenario analyzes the impacts of sustaining the rapid wheat yield increases seen from 1990 to 2009. Yield would grow at an annual rate of 1.97%, from 1.57 tonnes per hectare in the base period to 1.91 tonnes per hectare in 2020. As in the ﬁrst scenario, the yield increases would not require that Afghanistan increase the proportion of its irrigated wheat area or that the county improve its yields on rainfed areas. The yield on irrigated ﬁeld would increase from 2.35 tonnes per hectare in 2010 to 3.13 tonnes per hectare in 2020. The yield improvement in this scenario is within the genetic potential of existing wheat cultivars, the ERS said. For the country as a whole, national average yield would increase to 1.91 tonnes per hectare in 2020. This ﬁgure is well below those of Pakistan and Uzbekistan, the ERS said. Area cultivated to wheat would expand more rapidly as faster improvements in yield would accelerate the growth in returns from wheat production. Area, yield and production would increase at annual rates of 1.7%, 1.97% and 3.7%, respectively. Wheat production would still be 5.3 million tonnes in 2020, which is 15.6% higher than the 2020 level predicted in the ﬁrst scenario. Still, with consumption outpacing domestic output, imports would continue to increase at 3.1% per year. In the ﬁnal scenario, the ERS estimated what would be required for Afghanistan to achieve self-sufﬁciency. This scenario models the impacts
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of even faster rates of technological change and irrigated ﬁelds. Yield on rainfed land would grow, unlike in the ﬁrst two scenarios, as a result of adopting higher quality seed. Also, the proportion of Afghanistan’s wheat area that is now irrigated would increase as a result of improving water availability and management.

Prices, income and consumption would remain the same as in the previous scenarios. To achieve self-sufﬁciency, the ERS said, more widespread use of improved seed and fertilizer on irrigated and rain fed wheat ﬁelds would be needed along with improbably sharp increases in irrigated wheat area. Rain-fed yields would rise to 1.2 tonnes

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World Grain - March 2012

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