World Grain - July 2012 - 66

FEATURE: DRY WEATHER IMPACTING CROPS

Source: World Weather, Inc.

will put larger amounts of water vapor into the air in a manner similar to that of putting a pot of water on your kitchen stove and heating it up. The “steam” that comes off of the warmer water in your kitchen is water vapor and the longer you keep the water warm, the more humid your kitchen would likely become. In the atmosphere, adding water vapor is like fueling a wood burning ﬁreplace with more wood. The ﬁre is bound to get bigger as it has more fuel to burn and the same is true with the atmosphere. The greater amounts of water vapor will give the atmosphere the fuel needed to increase rainfall – at least in the middle latitudes. As El Niño evolves over the
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next few weeks, we are likely to see more moisture get into the atmosphere and that should lead to more rainfall and less dryness – at least in the higher latitudes. El Niño is not so favorable for rainfall in the tropical regions of the world. Less rain usually evolves in association with El Niño beginning in Indonesia and Malaysia and then spreading to eastern Australia and sometimes the Philippines. India’s summer monsoon usually under-performs when El Niño is around and the same is true for the North American monsoon that impacts rainfall in Mexico and the southwestern U.S. during the summer. Each of these tropical regions of the

world that trend lighter on rainfall in the initial weeks of El Niño usually suffer more notable dryness and sometimes drought by the time El Niño is fully mature. In the meantime, the droughts now present in the United States, Russia, Ukraine and China are likely to be reduced or possibly eliminated. These changes, however, will not happen overnight. Instead, the translation will take several weeks and possibly months. Nevertheless, dryness and droughts are likely to continue grabbing headlines for many more weeks while the atmosphere transitions to El Niño. From a grain and oilseed perspective, droughts in effect today will reduce productivity in corn, soybean, peanut and sorghum production areas in the United States, Russia, Ukraine and China. Relief will come to these areas a little later this summer – probably late July and August, but that will be too late to save some the corn crop form some production cuts in each area. The best news may be in the new drought areas. El Niño’s slow evolution may help the driest conditions miss important production periods in India and the Philippines with rainfall decreasing after the most moisture-sensitive period of crop development evolves. Australia’s winter wheat, barley and canola crop might also escape the worst conditions during reproduction if El Niño is a slow in evolving. Right now there is potential that Queensland and New South Wales, Australia will be in the midst of reproduction when some of the driest conditions from El Niño evolve, but that can be put off until after reproduction is complete by slowing the El Niño evolution.
Drew Lerner is a senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com. World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
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July 2012 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

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World Grain - July 2012

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