World Grain - January 2014 - 105

FEATURE: FolloW-up rain needed in argentina

gion may still suffer additional production losses and the situation needs to be
closely monitored. A disaster is not anticipated, but some disappointing yields
will occur in the southwest this summer
while other areas do well.
The satellite based Vegetative Health
Index produced by the U.S. National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) clearly indicates the significant
difference in crop conditions throughout
Argentina and southern Brazil this summer versus last year. The situation looks
a bit worse than it may be, but the impact
of heat, dryness and crop stress will all
be determined by rainfall over the next
few weeks.
Brazil outlook
In the meantime, Brazil weather
(although not perfect) remains good
enough to stimulate good yields. The
tremendous area planted to soybeans
and corn this spring will translate the
favorable yields into a mammoth crop
that will have a huge impact on world
grain and oilseed prices when harvest
time rolls around.
Problems in Argentina, while significant to the local farmer and of interest
in the global trade, will prove too small
relative to a tremendous Brazil crop that
is forthcoming. Had Brazil run into a
more significant bout of dryness and/or
flooding in the past few weeks, the crop
would be more vulnerable to production issues. However, what dryness did
evolve in the south during December
and flooding that occurred in the northeast part of crop country has ended
with significant relief in the first days
of January that have put back the abundance in this year's production even
though it never really left.
U.S. producers and traders have been
trying to come up with their own potential problem in 2014 summer crop
production. The recent bitter cold in the
U.S. has stimulated much chatter about
cold winters being followed by summer heat and dryness. However, World
Weather, Inc. finds little to no correlation like that and reminds its subscribwww.World-Grain.com / World Grain / January 2014

ers and readers that weather is rarely
that simply defined. The spring is going
to be slow in evolving again this year
across the Midwest with colder biased
conditions prevailing deeply into April.
The late spring and summer outlook is
going to begin favorably, but as is always the case, the situation will need to
be closely monitored.

Drew Lerner is a senior agricultural
meteorologist with World Weather, Inc. He may
be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com.
World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments
pertaining to present, past and future weather
conditions included in this report constitute the
corporation's judgment as of the date of this
report and are subject to change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and
inquiries to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of
WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

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World Grain - January 2014

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