World Grain - March 2015 - 92

WORLD GRAIN WEATHER REPORT: WILL WEATHER PUSH WHEAT PRICES HIGHER?

raises interest in Australian rainfall.
Traditional El Niño events tend to cause
dryness during the late winter and spring
in eastern Australia, but Modoki El Niño
events tend to create dryness in northern
Australia and more in the summer than
in the spring. Modoki events would have
less impact on winter wheat, barley and
canola production than traditional El
Niño events and that reduces the odds of
Australia having serious drought again
in 2015, although much can still change.
POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREAS
There is already a smaller crop of
lems with bitter cold weather coming
sooner than usual and poor snow cover.
eas began during the planting season
last autumn when rainfall was far below
normal. Wheat and rye failed to establish
well and bitter cold conditions showed
up early in the autumn before snow was
on the ground, raising potential for winterkill. There have been frequent bouts
of threatening cold without much snow
nation with poor emergence and establishment because of dryness last autumn
rainfall over east-central and southeastern China.
The effects of Modoki El Niño events
can change China's favorable weather
pattern today to one of greater concern
in April and May when wheat is moving toward and into reproduction. Quite
often the driest anomaly in a Modoki El
Niño event tends to occur a little further
south in China than the primary wheat
production region, but this potential
development will raise a need to watch
what happens in the next few weeks.
Dryness could impact other spring
planting and crop development in China
besides wheat.
In addition of the Modoki El Niño
event there is "some" lingering drought
92

in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Hebei and
North Korea left over from last summer.
Some of the dryness has recently been
eased, but there is potential that with
the El Niño phenomenon around that
the dryness in northeastern China could
return and expand into the region that
is disfavored for rain in east-central and
southeastern China because of Modoki
El Niño. This is wildly speculative, but
still a possibility.
India's wheat crop is already reproFebruary and early March will prove
timely enough to support very good production potentials and there is not enough
time left for that crop to run into problems.
In the meantime, the returning El

losses in spring production.
aware of the potential problem with 2015
winter crop production, and that is why
there has been some impressive moves
to reduce wheat exports until the spring
when damage assessments can be made.
A similar situation has occurred in the
Midwest did not all get planted because
of too much rain delaying the summer
grain and oilseed harvest last autumn.
Some of the crop was not planted and
that which was planted may not have
established well before bitter cold air
evolved in November. Some of that bitter cold air occurred without adequate
snow cover and there have been adMarch 2015 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - March 2015

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