World Grain - October 2015 - 48

FEATURE: 'WE'RE IN DIRE STRAITS'

2015, but said growers should be concerned that years of underinvestment in
North America's transportation network
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up with routine maintenance, but impossible to accommodate the growth looming on the horizon.
NORTH AMERICA NOT PREPARED
In an interview with World Grain,
Blank was asked if North America
is prepared to handle the demand for
goods and foodstuffs that will soon be

train will carry about 200 containers or
250 maximum. A lot of North American
railways are single track now - having
torn up the second track in the 1970s
- and the lay-bys (sidings) are a mile
long. You can't have trains that are
longer than you can put on the lay-by.
"So you divide 12,000 or 13,000 by
250 containers and you've got a lot of
trains. And the guys that carry the stuff
out aren't always the guys that carry
the stuff in, so we're talking about a
multiple of at least 1 1/2. And, you

"You can look at every transportation institute in North
America and none of them are working on North
American stuff. We have this huge asset that should be
focused on these issues and they aren't focused at all."
- Dr. Stephen Blank
coming from developing countries and
a growing population worldwide, and
his answer was an emphatic no.
"What is interesting here is the fact
that people think about ships - 12,000
or 14,000 TEUs - but they really don't
think enough about the land side. A unit

need space. You can't load 12,000 or
14,000 or 18,000 containers directly
off of a ship onto a train. You need a
place to stack the stuff.
"So when you think of the number of
trains that have to get into a terminal,
plus trucks, it's just not possible.

Dr. Stephen Blank profile
Dr. Stephen Blank is a well-known
and respected expert in strategic planning on both sides of the Canada/U.S.
border and internationally.
His education and experience have
contributed to a long list of institutions and groups, particularly those
involved in strategic planning. His
education includes: Dartmouth College (BA); Cambridge University (Certificate in Historical Studies); Harvard
University (MA, PhD), Teaching Fellow,
Dudley House Fellow.
He is currently special advisor, Collaboratory on Energy Research and
Policy, University of Ottawa and senior
fellow, Macdonald-Laurier Institute,
Ottawa. He has also served in many
other capacities during his long and
distinguished career, including assistant professor, Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh;
48

director, Council for Western European
Studies (Ford Foundation); International
Affairs Fellowship, Council on Foreign
Relations (Nuffield College, Oxford and
Chatham House); research director,
Multinational Corporate Conduct Project; director, International Political and
Social Analysis Program, the Conference
Board of New York; visiting lecturer,
School of Organization & Management,
Yale University; Founding Partner, MultiNational Strategies Inc.
His involvement in the academic community, government and private industry
has also gained Blank with a long list of
honors and awards, including the North
American Citizen Award granted by the
North American Center for Transborder Studies, Arizona State University,
in 2009, and the North America Works
Award granted by the North America
Works Annual Conference, also in 2009.

Moreover, in most places there's very
little space. In Vancouver, Seattle, Los
Angeles and Long Beach, there's very
little space. The land has become much
more valuable for condos."
In addition to a lack of space, there'll
be restricted rail capacity, huge surges in
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Coast ports.
Blank is also concerned that in both
Canada and the U.S., the issue has
shifted from building infrastructure
to cutting government spending and
cutting taxes.
In Canada and the U.S., he said,
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potholes rather than think strategically.
"There's going to be no money left for
strategic thinking," he said.
In addition, he said, if anything is
done it's going to be "shovel-ready
jobs" and not looking at the big picture.
"You can look at every transportation
institute in North America and none of
them are working on North American
stuff," he said. "We have this huge asset
that should be focused on these issues,
and they aren't focused at all."
Blank's concern is that North
American farmers and manufacturers
will gradually lose competitiveness
"right across the board." And while
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compete, many won't.
While there are projects, such as
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Canada, that have worked and provide
an example of the federal and provincial
governments and industry working
together on a project, Blank is concerned
about the Trans Canada Highway that
is still a single lane in some areas, and
he says the level of maintenance is
dropping. Another trouble spot is the
CN Rail's connection between the Port
of Prince Rupert and the U.S Midwest
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will be overwhelmed, and it will become
"impossible" to move the containers
further south, he said.
Blank said the only way to design a
North American rail system for the 21st
October 2015 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

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World Grain - October 2015

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