World Grain -- November 2015 - 42

FEATURE: SLOWING EMERGING ECONOMIES SOFTEN DEMAND

for being optimistic about Africa, Latin
America, the Middle East, Russia or
China," he said.

Population growth
330
Africa

1990=100

280

230
India
World
Brazil
USA

180

130
China

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

Germany
Japan

Source: US Census Bureau

Average daily calories per capita
4000
3800
USA
Germany

3600
3400

Brazil

3200
China

3000

World

2800

Japan

2600
India

2400
2200
2000
2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

Source: FAO STAT, National Geographic, What the World Eats, 2012

levels of per capital calorie consumption and high population growth, such
as India and Africa, he said. The least
potential is seen in nations with declining populations (China, Germany and
Japan) and relatively high levels of per
capita calorie consumption (the U.S.,
Brazil and Germany).
While conditions aren't perfect in
42

India, the nation has great potential for
increased per capita calorie consumption
and population growth. It has the best
near-term potential for demand growth,
Norland said. Africa's near-term outlook
is mixed to negative, and China is essentially tapped out as a growth market.
"The case for being optimistic about
India is much stronger than the case

INDIA TAKING THE LEAD
While its demographics aren't as
growth oriented as Africa, India's calorie consumption is up from about 2,100
to 2,400 calories per person, Norland
said. If India could bring that consumption up to the world average, that
would mean 20% more consumption
per person for over 1 billion people.
India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
at least on the surface, looks good.
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by 6% per year, but when you peak under the hood, things are not looking so
good," Norland said.
Mining is not really growing, agriculture is underperforming, manufacturing hasn't seen growth in the last
three years and construction is growing slower than the overall economy.
While the "real" economy isn't growing, Norland said there is increased
government spending, growth in
¿QDQFLDO VHUYLFHV DQG UHDO HVWDWH
transactions.
"When that starts taking up a larger
share of the economy, that can be a bad
thing," he said. "People are taking on too
much debt that one day they're going to
¿QGWKHPVHOYHVXQDEOHWRSD\EDFN´
%XWWKHJRRGQHZVLVLQÀDWLRQUDWHV
have come way down, spurring economic activity, and the Indian rupee
has come down in value, meaning
India is competitive on the export side.
"Short term, India is the best hope
for economic growth, and increased
consumption of vegetable oil and other
agricultural products," Norland said.
In the long term, Africa holds the
greatest potential, he said. Average
calorie consumption is between 2,200
and 2,300 per day, and the population
is skyrocketing.
"If Africa can grow its population
by 70% and come up to the world average in calorie consumption, it could
grow food consumption by 100% in
the next 25 years," Norland said.

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World Grain -- November 2015

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