World Grain - November 2017 - 91

FEATURE: MONSOONAL RAINS FINALLY BEGIN IN BRAZIL

planting in Mato Grosso and Goias resulting in what appears to be a normal planting pace for the nation as a whole. But in
actuality, the planting season is notably
late in Mato Grosso and Goias - two
extremely important production areas -
and quite early in São Paulo, Parana and
southern Minas Gerais. In the meantime,
the usual late September planting in Mato
Grosso has occurred either with little to no
moisture or is just now beginning. That
raises the potential for some negative impact on second season crops that normally
follows the early crop.
Second season corn and cotton in Mato
Grosso have to be planted in January
and February to leave adequate time for
crop development before seasonal monsoon moisture abates from the region.
In a normal year, this occurs from late
March through April. First season crops
in Brazil planted several weeks late will
be harvested late, leading to late plant-

ing of second season crops. Late season
crops are dependent upon seasonal rains
lasting long enough for crops to have adequate subsoil moisture to tap into after
monsoonal rains end. Planting the second
season crops a few weeks late raises the
potential for monsoonal moisture to end
before crops have passed the moisture
sensitive reproductive phase of development, resulting in a rising potential for
production cuts.
Even though Brazil's seasonal rains
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will be aggressive over the next few
weeks, there is potential that second
season corn and cotton planted may
run short on subsoil moisture while reSURGXFWLRQDQG¿OOLQJWDNHVSODFH7KDW
could reduce production.
The bottom line for Brazil is that when
monsoonal rainfall is delayed, there is
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the early crop quite favorably and pro-

GXFWLRQ LV UDUHO\ D൵HFWHG 6HFRQG VHDson crops, however, do sometimes come
up with poor yields and quality because
after being planted late, the annual rains
end on time, leaving the ground in a decreasing moisture environment. Therefore, no changes in production potential
should be anticipated in Brazil because
of the erratic start to rainfall, but it will
be imperative that seasonal rains continue as late as possible in 2018 to support
second season crops.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist
with World Weather, Inc. He may be reached at
worldweather@bizkc.rr.com. World Weather, Inc.
forecasts and comments pertaining to present,
past and future weather conditions included in
this report constitute the corporation's judgment
as of the date of this report and are subject to
change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and
inquiries to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of
WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

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