2022 Spring Issue - 86

cities leader for the Americas at Arup. Climate migration
is not a future issue; it is already happening.
" There's a huge lag, historically, between demographic
mobility and shifts in demand and the real
estate industry's capacity to provide supply, " says
Jesse Keenan, associate professor of real estate at
the school of architecture at Tulane University in
New Orleans. " Other than trying to track supply and
demand, you have to think about affordability and
environmental sustainability in the receiving zones. I
don't think we've got a strong handle on the obligations
and opportunities. "
Climate Migration
Assessing climate risk to cities and individual assets
is challenging in itself. Measuring climate migration is
even more so.
" Even the weather forecast for next week can be
Some segments of
the property markets
could decline in value
as residents and
businesses relocate
from places unable to
manage their climate
risk.
very different. Predicting climate over the next 50
years? That's difficult, " says Maarten Jennen, senior
director within the private real estate team of PGGM,
a major pension fund in the Netherlands. " And then
trying to predict how people or companies might
react to these changes and move? Then it becomes
even more difficult. "
Climate migration can include moving to another
country, within a country, or within a municipality.
Those decisions are driven by adverse climate
changes including flooding, droughts, wildfires,
storms, and extreme temperatures, but also many
other factors.
" People move for a lot of reasons-because of
jobs, family ties, friends, or they just like the place.
Climate issues are just one part-a little one or a big
one, " says A.R. Siders of the University of Delaware's
Disaster Research Center. " Everyone has climate preferences;
I'd rather live in Maine than Florida. And
we all have different levels of risk that we're comfortable
with. Some people are comfortable with kayaking
to the grocery store when the road floods. Others
are not. "
Some segments of the property markets could
decline in value as residents and businesses relocate
from places unable to manage their climate risk. New
real estate investment opportunities will emerge in
neighborhoods and regions more able to adapt to
climate change and absorb shocks.
Heitman has been observing where people have
moved during the pandemic. In 2020, many people
left New York City and California, both of which face
serious climate risks. But many people moved to
Florida and the Carolinas, which are not without risk.
" Climate risk might not have been top-of-mind for
people. It was more about the cost of living and the
quality of life, " says Laura Craft, Heitman's head
of global environmental, social, and governance
(ESG) strategy. But if insurance premiums rise with
the sea levels, " it could get to a point where there's
no more cost-of-living advantage, or the quality of life
is impaired. "
It is difficult to determine the number of climate
migrants globally, since people often have multiple
factors driving their decisions to leave a place. The
U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that
95 percent of conflict displacements in 2020 occurred
in countries also vulnerable to climate change.
Last year, the World Bank estimated that climate
change could cause 216 million people around the
world to relocate within their own country over the
next 30 years.
Every place in the world has some level of climate
risk, Siders points out. Some have a slow onset,
while large climate events can spur a sudden migration.
The United States experienced 20 separate climate
disasters causing at least $1 billion in damages
in 2021, just shy of the record of 22 set in 2020.
" Areas at risk without the mitigation measures in
place can be severely damaged by an event, " Craft
says. " Those locations may not have the economic
86
URBAN LAND
SPRING 2022
SHUTTERSTOCK
2022 Spring Issue

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of 2022 Spring Issue
