2022 Spring Issue - 88

Rise Technical Report projects that sea levels along
the coastline will rise an additional 10 to 12 inches
(25 to 30 cm) by 2050.
Jennen of PGGM thinks that the costs of climate
change could increase competition among cities for
attracting businesses. " Single-family housing might
be the canary in the coal mine, " he says. " But commercial
is a big component of every portfolio. "
Swett of Arup wonders whether postindustrial
cities that suffered population loss in the last century
might be able to absorb climate migrants within
the United States. " Cities in the Upper Midwest like
Detroit still have significant amounts of infrastructure
with lower populations than in the mid-20th century.
Are those places that people might go to from atrisk
cities? "
Keenan warns that lower-income people displaced
by climate change may move from one high-risk area
to another. " We need consumer transparency to
manage and convey risk, " he says.
Everyone is wondering how climate risk will play
out in insurance prices and lending.
" When we talk about a 100-year flood, that's a 1
percent annual risk of a major flood, " Siders says.
" That's a 26 percent chance of a terrible flood over
the course of a 30-year mortgage. " Since flood risk
is expected to increase, it remains to be seen how
financial institutions and insurers will price this risk.
As climate risk increases in many areas, Keenan
says, " we need to understand the cost of business as
usual and the cost of future risk premiums that are
already emerging in the market. "
That could lead to what he calls bluelining. Akin
to how redlining left majority-Black parts of U.S. cities
underfunded for decades, if banks stop offering loans
or good mortgage terms for homes in flood zones,
that creates a real equity issue.
" Choice is a privilege not all people have, " Siders
says. The issue of climate migration is intermingled
with affordable housing, land use regulation, availability
of good jobs, and resilience of infrastructure.
" Solving it will require a holistic picture, taking a step
back to look at the community we want to build. "
88
URBAN LAND
SPRING 2022
URBAN LAND INSTITUTE

2022 Spring Issue

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of 2022 Spring Issue

2022 Spring Issue - Cover1
2022 Spring Issue - Cover2
2022 Spring Issue - 1
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2022 Spring Issue - Cover3
2022 Spring Issue - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/2024-spring-issue-of-urban-land
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/2024-winter-issue-of-urban-land
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/2023-fall-issue-of-urban-land
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/2023-summer-issue-of-urban-land
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/2023-spring-issue
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/2022-winter-issue
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/2022FallIssue
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/2022-summer-issue
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/2022-spring-issue
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/ulm-winter-2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/summer-issue-2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/uli-spring-2021-issue
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/ULIWinter2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/URBANLANDFALL2020
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/URBANLANDSUMMER2020
https://www.nxtbook.com/urbanlandinstitute/UrbanLand/URBANLANDSPRING2020
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