2023 Fall Issue of Urban Land - 129

Critical Safety Net
Insurance availability and affordability
reach crisis levels
NATALIE AMBROSIO PREUDHOMME
Until recently, insurance was a straightforward
part of commercial real estate
transactions-an important component, but
generally a simple check-the-box exercise
with predictable annual increases aligned with
inflation. In the past few years, things have
changed drastically, with skyrocketing premiums
that have jarring implications for underwriters
and owners.
A critical safety net wears thin
Insurance expenses used to climb steadily
each year, but this predictability began to
change in 2017, according to Moody's Analytics'
analysis of 20 years of expense data on
CMBS properties including multifamily, office,
retail, industrial and hotel (Fig 1). Looking at
December values from 2017 to 2022, annual
inflation rates from the Consumer Price Index
(CPI) hovered around 2 percent, peaking at 7
percent at the end of 2021 with a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3 percent
across the period. However, the average insurance
CAGR in the same period ranged from
6.7 percent to 9.8 percent across the five
property types (Fig 2). Insurance expenses for
Figure 1. Average US insurance premium by year and property type.
Source: Moody's Analytics CRE.
FALL 2023
URBAN LAND
129
INDUSTRY VOICES

2023 Fall Issue of Urban Land

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