Summer Issue 2021 - 23

ments
working on other electrification
strategies. Even if a city does not
have a gas ban in place, responding
to these potential policies and
getting ahead of them can prove to
be a useful strategy for long-term
planning.
l Technical benefits. While allelectric
buildings are not a new
concept, advances in electric
technologies like heat pumps are
enabling buildings to gain value
from the overall increased energy
efficiency of building systems and
from optimized interconnectivity
with the utility grid.
l Environmental benefits. Allelectric
equipment contributes
to the overall environmental performance
of an asset, both for
reduced carbon emissions and for
the health and safety of the space
and its occupants. The burning of
fossil fuels on site, such as on a
gas cooktop or boiler, is inherently
bad for indoor air quality and can
harm occupants, such as those
working in commercial kitchens,
when they are exposed over the
long term. Furthermore, a building
cannot meet the strictest definition
of net zero until it is all electric and
powered by renewable energy. With
more government, corporate real
estate, and end-user targets setting
net-zero goals, forward-thinking real
estate owners and investors are
including electrification in broader
environmental, social, and governance
(ESG) business plans.
Some real estate companies
already have either retrofitted
older buildings to be all electric
or decided on all-electric new
developments from the start. Two
examples are the following:
l 30 Van Ness, San Francisco.
Lendlease's 30 Van Ness is the
firm's first all-electric mixed-use
development in the United States.
But the decision to go all electric
was made long before San Francisco
passed a " no gas " policy.
Lendlease's motivation behind the
net zero-ready project, slated for
completion by 2024, is threefold:
alignment with prospective tenant
aspirations for next-generation
office space, environmental considerations
and corporate ESG goals,
and the desire to be an innovative
leader. Lendlease also created a
detailed marketing and education
plan to highlight the benefits of an
all-electric building for residents
and tenants.
l The Tyler, East Haven, Connecticut.
Multifamily developer
WinnCompanies converted an
adaptive use project involving a
high school that had been vacant
for 30 years, creating 70 new allelectric
mixed-income housing units
for seniors ages 55 years and older.
The 104,000-square-foot (10,000
sq m) Passive House retrofit project
includes high-efficiency upgrades
and a 90-kilowatt solar array, and
reuses the building's existing materials
to avoid 18,000 metric tons of
greenhouse gas emissions (as measured
by the project's embodied
energy value).
ULI members can download Electrify:
The Movement to All-Electric
Real Estate on Knowledge Finder,
knowledge.uli.org.
JUSTIN ARNOLD is ULI senior manager for
communications.
Post-Pandemic
Economic Growth
Expected to Last
through 2022
ULI's latest Real Estate Economic
Forecast predicts that the real
estate sector is poised for a
rebound, with the single-familyhousing
sector, hotel, and industrial
returns forecast to increase
strongly over the next three years.
These conclusions are based on
an April-May survey of 42 economists
and analysts at 39 leading
real estate organizations. The sentiment
of the group indicated that
the office sector is likely to rebound
by 2023 and that industrial will
remain strong. Other asset classes
will rebound from pre-pandemic
lows and grow in future years.
" While the fall 2020 forecast was
notable in its reversal of many of the
pessimistic forecasts from spring
2020, the current forecast goes even
further, with several forecasts now
ahead of long-term averages, " said
William Maher, director of strategy
and research at RCLCO. " Among
the 2021-2023 metrics predicted
to outpace long-term averages are
GDP and employment growth, the
unemployment rate, real estate
transaction volumes, warehouse
and apartment occupancy and rent
growth, and single-family-housing
starts and price appreciation. "
The survey results were released
during a ULI member-only webinar
that also featured observations from
Michael Acton, managing director,
AEW Capital Management; Matt
Anderson, managing director, Trepp;
Lee Menifee, managing director
and head of Americas investment
research, PGIM Real Estate; and
Suzanne Mulvee, senior vice president
of research and strategy, GID.
Results from the next semiannual
survey, which is conducted by ULI's
Center for Real Estate Economics
and Capital Markets, are scheduled
to be released in October.
Predictions from the latest
survey, which covers the forecast
period of 2021 through 2023,
include these:
l GDP is expected to rise by 6.5
percent in 2021, up from -3.5 percent
in 2020. It is expected to rise
by 3.9 percent in 2022 and by 2.5
percent in 2023.
l Net job growth is expected to
increase by 5.5 million in 2021-a
much more upbeat assessment
over last October's projection-but
it will taper off to 3 million in 2022
and 2.1 million in 2023 for a threeyear
total gain of 10.6 million jobs.
The national unemployment rate is
forecast to be at 5 percent for 2021
before dropping to 4.1 percent in
2022 and 4 percent in 2023, below
the 20-year average of 6 percent.
l Expected yields on the 10-Year U.S.
Treasury note are expected to gain
rapidly over the next three years. The
expected 10-year yield is predicted
to be 1.95 percent in 2021, 2.23 in
2022, and 2.5 percent in 2023.
l Commercial real estate transaction
volume is expected to recover relatively
quickly through 2023, nearly
reaching parity with 2019's volume.
And 2021 is expected to see transaction
volume at $500 billion, with
2022 volume at $550 billion. Expectations
for commercial mortgage-
backed security (CMBS) issuance
SUMMER 2021
URBAN LAND
23
http://knowledge.uli.org
Summer Issue 2021

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